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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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Are you JB's mother or something? What do you mean "if we are talking temps"? We are talking temps. And yes, people care. That's why he forecasts temps.

 

Well most weenies only care about snow.

 

Give them a frigid pattern with no snow and you'll see a bunch of whining...go check out the threads in the 2nd half of January 2013 in here.

 

Give them normal (or even above) with lots of snow and the whining is much less.

 

 

But you are right that the discussion of long range forecasts is definitely focused around temperatures. Snowfall is almost impossible to predict while temps can have at least some skill.

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Are you JB's mother or something? What do you mean "if we are talking temps"? We are talking temps. And yes, people care. That's why he forecasts temps.

In the energy sector, which comprises the majority of his clientele, temps are just about all the matter. :lol:

They throw out snowfall percentages for $hits and giggles.

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Well most weenies only care about snow.

 

Give them a frigid pattern with no snow and you'll see a bunch of whining...go check out the threads in the 2nd half of January 2013 in here.

 

Give them normal (or even above) with lots of snow and the whining is much less.

 

 

But you are right that the discussion of long range forecasts is definitely focused around temperatures. Snowfall is almost impossible to predict while temps can have at least some skill.

 The money is made on temp forecasts with regard to seasonals, not snowfall.

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AN by 1F-2F, maybe closer to 1F. Snowfall below normal (3-6 inches at best in our regions "Worcester-Tolland" hills). Of course a sneak snowstorm could raise the latter. I wouldn't get excited about a pattern change any time soon for the reason the mets are giving, low heights near the Aleutians. Its a classic case of the models wanting to "fix" things when the atmosphere is doing its own thing. Who knows, maybe something will happen to change everything. 

When things are bad there's no harm in pretending.

Well the first 10 days will average bn at ORH so it will have to be pretty warm for those numbers to verify 12/11-31.

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 The money is made on temp forecasts with regard to seasonals, not snowfall.

 

Exactly...the energy sector and commodities are forecasting fuel useage...which of course is much more affected by temperatures than snow.

 

If only people heated their homes when it snowed and shut off the heat when the snow stops. :lol:

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Exactly...the energy sector and commodities are forecasting fuel useage...which of course is much more affected by temperatures than snow.

 

If only people heated their homes when it snowed and shut off the heat when the snow stops. :lol:

I'll be worried if we don't get a significant snow event btwn now and NY, and there are still no signs of a neg NAO on the horizon. 

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How is he Busting?  He's been saying pretty much what all of you have been saying.  When alot of people thought the pattern was going to Above Normal for this current time period, he said it would be more the plains/midwest.  And that with the big Highs, the Northeast would stay active, with fun and games thrown in there.  

 

I don't rest on every word he says, but I have to say, I don't feel he's busting as of the present day either.  Perhaps he might bust after all is said and done, but if he does, then so will most Forecasts if the winter doesn't deliver.

He's been touting the winter of 14-15 since last winter. His winter forecast is already in jeopardy. Check WXBell to see if the video of him expounding on his winter forecast is still online. He already has this winter in the "win" column despite how it has started out. In a tweet he mentions that 3 out of the next 5 winters will be warm.

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He's been touting the winter of 14-15 since last winter. His winter forecast is already in jeopardy. Check WXBell to see if the video of him expounding on his winter forecast is still online. He already has this winter in the "win" column despite how it has started out. In a tweet he mentions that 3 out of the next 5 winters will be warm.

How has it started out???  It's not going to badly for the first 10 days imo.  Listen, I don't hang on every word that the guy says, And my post was meant for the majority of the posters here...which I am going to go out on a limb and say they are not commercial clients that are worried about a December forecast busting a degree or two above what was forecasted.  Most in this forum love snow, and that was my only point.

 

And I don't know why some on here feel the need to get Nasty when they reply.  If you don't like the post, you can disagree, but do you have to get snotty???  And to Rainman...no, I'm not his mother.  And December is only a third over!  

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You should worry if December is virtually snowless, too, based upon the history of December el Ninos.

There are a couple of exceptions, bu tnot many.

Care to expound a bit?

I thought Nino Decembers are usually iffy for us SF wise. Obviously things should start to improve by the end of the month of we want to still have a decent winter. I guess I wish we had one event to track between now and the end of the month to distract us for a while.

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Edit: This post was meant to be a reply regarding looking forward to the potential for a future -NAO

 

If it doesn't show up the SAI would have to be revisited.  It would knock the correlation coefficient down significantly.

 

 

The SAI actually is used to predict the AO, not the NAO.

 

Though the NAO usually follows the AO fairly closely since they overalp domain space.

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