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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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So you think Dec comes in AN or BN?

AN by 1F-2F, maybe closer to 1F. Snowfall below normal (3-6 inches at best in our regions "Worcester-Tolland" hills). Of course a sneak snowstorm could raise the latter. I wouldn't get excited about a pattern change any time soon for the reason the mets are giving, low heights near the Aleutians. Its a classic case of the models wanting to "fix" things when the atmosphere is doing its own thing. Who knows, maybe something will happen to change everything. 

When things are bad there's no harm in pretending.

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JB on Weatherbell showed the Euro Ensembles from 15 days ago for today, and what is actually happening today...it's amazing how off they were.  Take away....anything can change for the long term.  Everybody was thrilled with what the models were showing a few days ago for the long term, now not so much.  Give it a day, and that will change too.  We aren't doing all that bad at the moment...not that great, but not that bad either.  Slow and Steady.

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JB on Weatherbell showed the Euro Ensembles from 15 days ago for today, and what is actually happening today...it's amazing how off they were.  Take away....anything can change for the long term.  Everybody was thrilled with what the models were showing a few days ago for the long term, now not so much.  Give it a day, and that will change too.  We aren't doing all that bad at the moment...not that great, but not that bad either.  Slow and Steady.

 

That's because JB is severely busting, so he's trying to save his azz.

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Looks like we have somewhat of a split flow in the D8-14 range...Canada isn't very cold but the split flow underneath the ridge will probably give us a few chances....split flow should keep it fairly active.

 

So while the N plains and Canada are getting above average temps, we never torch here and have some "cold enough for snow" type airmasses around. Obviously that means a bit less margin for error, but it is better than a dry ridging pattern.

 

Hopefulyl we turn the N PAC and hemispheric pattern a bit more toward a stronger winter cold pattern by late month. Perhaps around Christmas time, but I'd bet a bit after that.

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One thing for sure. It's been damn active and looks to continue that way with systems every 2-3 days.

And now we aren't even looking at any AN wx. It's wirked out pretty well. Avoid the mild ups and keep it stormy .. Soon enough it will deliver

Looks like it might hit 40F here in ORH on Monday... slightly above normal. Normal to very slightly below high temps, but lows are above by a couple of degrees. Certainly no "torches" but where's the beef  snow?

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With enough rolls of the dice with coastals, hopefully something will give the region a doozy.

I can usually score some nickels or even dimes, but a good storm that gets everyone the goods is of course preferred.

 

Even yesterday was pretty close for some people.

 Yea, the ski resorts.

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That's because JB is severely busting, so he's trying to save his azz.

How is he Busting?  He's been saying pretty much what all of you have been saying.  When alot of people thought the pattern was going to Above Normal for this current time period, he said it would be more the plains/midwest.  And that with the big Highs, the Northeast would stay active, with fun and games thrown in there.  

 

I don't rest on every word he says, but I have to say, I don't feel he's busting as of the present day either.  Perhaps he might bust after all is said and done, but if he does, then so will most Forecasts if the winter doesn't deliver.

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How is he Busting?  He's been saying pretty much what all of you have been saying.  When alot of people thought the pattern was going to Above Normal for this current time period, he said it would be more the plains/midwest.  And that with the big Highs, the Northeast would stay active, with fun and games thrown in there.  

 

I don't rest on every word he says, but I have to say, I don't feel he's busting as of the present day either.  Perhaps he might bust after all is said and done, but if he does, then so will most Forecasts if the winter doesn't deliver.

 

You didn't see his DJF forecast then. He called for the severe cold in the East. December is toast for him and the rest of the winter probably can't make that up. So, he's grasping for cold.

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You didn't see his DJF forecast then. He called for the severe cold in the East. December is toast for him and the rest of the winter probably can't make that up. So, he's grasping for cold.

Well I guess if you are talking temps.  Temps don't really bother most people as long as it's cold enough for snow...that's really all that matters to most.  But if we are going to be technical...perhaps you are correct in that regard.  Give us the snow, and let the temps be just cold enough for that.

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You didn't see his DJF forecast then. He called for the severe cold in the East. December is toast for him and the rest of the winter probably can't make that up. So, he's grasping for cold.

I think he said December might be the warmest month of the 3 though...but if that -NAO doesnt show up, he's definitely toast as are most forecasts that went cold.  Haven't had a negative west based NAO in 2 years, so I'm wary of it actually showing up

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With enough rolls of the dice with coastals, hopefully something will give the region a doozy.

I can usually score some nickels or even dimes, but a good storm that gets everyone the goods is of course preferred.

 

Even yesterday was pretty close for some people.

Speak for yourself!  I relish :icecream: when we get hit with the goods :snowing: and easterners and southerners are heading to the bathtub with toasters :violin: , makes the storm that much more special  :lmao:

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Well I guess if you are talking temps. Temps don't really bother most people as long as it's cold enough for snow...that's really all that matters to most. But if we are going to be technical...perhaps you are correct in that regard. Give us the snow, and let the temps be just cold enough for that.

Are you JB's mother or something? What do you mean "if we are talking temps"? We are talking temps. And yes, people care. That's why he forecasts temps.

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