J Paul Gordon Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 So you think Dec comes in AN or BN? AN by 1F-2F, maybe closer to 1F. Snowfall below normal (3-6 inches at best in our regions "Worcester-Tolland" hills). Of course a sneak snowstorm could raise the latter. I wouldn't get excited about a pattern change any time soon for the reason the mets are giving, low heights near the Aleutians. Its a classic case of the models wanting to "fix" things when the atmosphere is doing its own thing. Who knows, maybe something will happen to change everything. When things are bad there's no harm in pretending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 First 10 days of December,below normal temps for the Northeast..NOBODY forecast that 2 weeks ago..Trying to figure out how LR forecasting has become an exact science..we still have a long way to go I agree. ...Just riding the usual hold on, and wait train, hoping that our stop comes soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 JB on Weatherbell showed the Euro Ensembles from 15 days ago for today, and what is actually happening today...it's amazing how off they were. Take away....anything can change for the long term. Everybody was thrilled with what the models were showing a few days ago for the long term, now not so much. Give it a day, and that will change too. We aren't doing all that bad at the moment...not that great, but not that bad either. Slow and Steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 JB on Weatherbell showed the Euro Ensembles from 15 days ago for today, and what is actually happening today...it's amazing how off they were. Take away....anything can change for the long term. Everybody was thrilled with what the models were showing a few days ago for the long term, now not so much. Give it a day, and that will change too. We aren't doing all that bad at the moment...not that great, but not that bad either. Slow and Steady. That's because JB is severely busting, so he's trying to save his azz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Looks like we have somewhat of a split flow in the D8-14 range...Canada isn't very cold but the split flow underneath the ridge will probably give us a few chances....split flow should keep it fairly active. So while the N plains and Canada are getting above average temps, we never torch here and have some "cold enough for snow" type airmasses around. Obviously that means a bit less margin for error, but it is better than a dry ridging pattern. Hopefulyl we turn the N PAC and hemispheric pattern a bit more toward a stronger winter cold pattern by late month. Perhaps around Christmas time, but I'd bet a bit after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 interesting watching the ensembles from day 10-15 the last few days. day 15 always looks good...just never seems to get much closer than that. area of very low heights near/west of the Aleutians just keeps pulsing back. Not sure if "interesting" is the adjective that I'd choose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Not sure if "interesting" is the adjective that I'd choose. accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 One thing for sure. It's been damn active and looks to continue that way with systems every 2-3 days. And now we aren't even looking at any AN wx. It's wirked out pretty well. Avoid the mild ups and keep it stormy .. Soon enough it will deliver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 One thing for sure. It's been damn active and looks to continue that way with systems every 2-3 days. And now we aren't even looking at any AN wx. It's wirked out pretty well. Avoid the mild ups and keep it stormy .. Soon enough it will deliver there are definitely various ways to look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 One thing for sure. It's been damn active and looks to continue that way with systems every 2-3 days. And now we aren't even looking at any AN wx. It's wirked out pretty well. Avoid the mild ups and keep it stormy .. Soon enough it will deliver Looks like it might hit 40F here in ORH on Monday... slightly above normal. Normal to very slightly below high temps, but lows are above by a couple of degrees. Certainly no "torches" but where's the beef snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative I have no complaints thus far, but I am a bit disheartened that things keep getting delayed. Shame on me for not expecting it, I guess. I think we'll steal one or two middling events before the start of the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I have no complaints thus far, but I am a bit disheartened that things keep getting delayed. Shame on me for not expecting it, I guess. I think we'll steal one or two middling events before the start of the new year. yeah agree. definitely a better pattern than dry/warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 yeah agree. definitely a better pattern than dry/warm. This month, while not rivaling our more auspicious Nino Decembers as of yet, has not resemebled seasons like 1994 and 2006, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 With enough rolls of the dice with coastals, hopefully something will give the region a doozy. I can usually score some nickels or even dimes, but a good storm that gets everyone the goods is of course preferred. Even yesterday was pretty close for some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 With enough rolls of the dice with coastals, hopefully something will give the region a doozy. I can usually score some nickels or even dimes, but a good storm that gets everyone the goods is of course preferred. Even yesterday was pretty close for some people. Yea, the ski resorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Would be nice if the NAO decided to go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 That's because JB is severely busting, so he's trying to save his azz. How is he Busting? He's been saying pretty much what all of you have been saying. When alot of people thought the pattern was going to Above Normal for this current time period, he said it would be more the plains/midwest. And that with the big Highs, the Northeast would stay active, with fun and games thrown in there. I don't rest on every word he says, but I have to say, I don't feel he's busting as of the present day either. Perhaps he might bust after all is said and done, but if he does, then so will most Forecasts if the winter doesn't deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Winter cancel? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 12z GFS still showing the bowling ball northern stream shortwave and H5 low for Day 7-8 over the Northeastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Yes. NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 NO Hush, now, little one. I have spoken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 How is he Busting? He's been saying pretty much what all of you have been saying. When alot of people thought the pattern was going to Above Normal for this current time period, he said it would be more the plains/midwest. And that with the big Highs, the Northeast would stay active, with fun and games thrown in there. I don't rest on every word he says, but I have to say, I don't feel he's busting as of the present day either. Perhaps he might bust after all is said and done, but if he does, then so will most Forecasts if the winter doesn't deliver. You didn't see his DJF forecast then. He called for the severe cold in the East. December is toast for him and the rest of the winter probably can't make that up. So, he's grasping for cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Yea, the ski resorts. http://www.nelsap.org/ma/wilmington.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 You didn't see his DJF forecast then. He called for the severe cold in the East. December is toast for him and the rest of the winter probably can't make that up. So, he's grasping for cold. Well I guess if you are talking temps. Temps don't really bother most people as long as it's cold enough for snow...that's really all that matters to most. But if we are going to be technical...perhaps you are correct in that regard. Give us the snow, and let the temps be just cold enough for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 You didn't see his DJF forecast then. He called for the severe cold in the East. December is toast for him and the rest of the winter probably can't make that up. So, he's grasping for cold. I think he said December might be the warmest month of the 3 though...but if that -NAO doesnt show up, he's definitely toast as are most forecasts that went cold. Haven't had a negative west based NAO in 2 years, so I'm wary of it actually showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 http://www.nelsap.org/ma/wilmington.html LOL The town sledding area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Should call it the Wilmington Weenie Hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 With enough rolls of the dice with coastals, hopefully something will give the region a doozy. I can usually score some nickels or even dimes, but a good storm that gets everyone the goods is of course preferred. Even yesterday was pretty close for some people. Speak for yourself! I relish when we get hit with the goods and easterners and southerners are heading to the bathtub with toasters , makes the storm that much more special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Well I guess if you are talking temps. Temps don't really bother most people as long as it's cold enough for snow...that's really all that matters to most. But if we are going to be technical...perhaps you are correct in that regard. Give us the snow, and let the temps be just cold enough for that. Are you JB's mother or something? What do you mean "if we are talking temps"? We are talking temps. And yes, people care. That's why he forecasts temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Another thread gets derailed by JB indirectly. Bring back the NAO from the late 2000s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.