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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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Nothing wrong for turning to the DGEX to buttress a forecast already supported by viable guidance... 

Agree.... the spirits guided me to make my HECS forecast for the 21-23 and they are very trustworthy at this range out....It's just that sometimes they get a little fickle the closer in we get....But what the heck...I want a white Christmas

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Agree.... the spirits guided me to make my HECS forecast for the 21-23 and they are very trustworthy at this range out....It's just that sometimes they get a little fickle the closer in we get....But what the heck...I want a white Christmas

 

A White Christmas is more likely for you than for me, but I want a White Christmas as well.

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Nothing wrong for turning to the DGEX to buttress a forecast already supported by viable guidance...

I don't find it useful in any situation. But to each his own.

At any rate. We turn a bit colder but it's far from a good wintry pattern. We may have to wait until closer to Christmas.

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Will, its much winter like on the ensembles.

I'm basing my opinion on the ensembles. Any cold looks fairly marginal over the next 10 days. Perhaps closer to Christmas it gets a little better.

Doesn't mean we can't get a storm on the 17th but it's not screaming winter storm right now to me.

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Hey Scott -- I'm actually kind of optimistic for that D9 thing... It's one of these scenarios where the teleconnectors argue there "should" be something more prevalent in the runs, and since something is "hinted", the hint might actually get a confidence interval.  

The 12z GGEM (Great Gobs of Excrement Model) does now show a more involved N/S stream like we alluded to earlier, and tho it's laughable as usual for this time range.... the "Concept" stands to reason. 

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If it corroborates what all other guidance has, then sure it is. 

 

That lends the question:

 

If the Euro/Euro ensembles/GFS/GEFS/Ukie/etc all agree on a certain type of setup...why would you even bother looking at a 96 hour DGEX map to compliment your forecast? If it disagrees, then you aren't changing your forecast based on that, correct? So what value does it have when it agrees? It's the broken clock syndrome to me...

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That lends the question:

 

If the Euro/Euro ensembles/GFS/GEFS/Ukie/etc all agree on a certain type of setup...why would you even bother looking at a 96 hour DGEX map to compliment your forecast? If it disagrees, then you aren't changing your forecast based on that, correct? So what value does it have when it agrees? It's the broken clock syndrome to me...

 

Maybe it goes from 96.42% probability to 96.43% probability.

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mostly, but SE of the benchmark is more favorable for your area, even mine.

 

Roughly 50-100 miles southeast of the benchmark is classic for Cape Cod, especially the CHH to HYA corridor.  Also the greatest blizzard to ever hit Cape Cod dumped 35" on Harwich, was a benchmark track storm, which turned to rain for a time.

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 Exatly.

I don't know why that concept is lost on some.

I never attempted to quantify it's value.

 

 

I think he was sarcastically agreeing with me that it provided no value.

 

 

I was actually sort of being serious, but leaving the interpretation up to the reader. It provides value in probabilistic forecasting even if it would never change a deterministic forecast, but the level of value it brings is certainly low.

 

I think an "even the DGEX agrees" forecast is better than "the DGEX is on it's own with something different" scenario, and you damn well know that if the DGEX is the only model showing a huge nor'easter, somebody will latch onto it as a "possibility."

 

But then again, nobody is going to say "well the DGEX shows something different, so let's wait for the 0z ECMWF before making our forecast public."

 

But yeah, I used extremely small percentage increase to highlight the fact that I think it's value is pretty negligible.

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I was actually sort of being serious, but leaving the interpretation up to the reader. It provides value in probabilistic forecasting even if it would never change a deterministic forecast, but the level of value it brings is certainly low.

 

I think an "even the DGEX agrees" forecast is better than "the DGEX is on it's own with something different" scenario, and you damn well know that if the DGEX is the only model showing a huge nor'easter, somebody will latch onto it as a "possibility."

 

But then again, nobody is going to say "well the DGEX shows something different, so let's wait for the 0z ECMWF before making our forecast public."

 

But yeah, I used extremely small percentage increase to highlight the fact that I think it's value is pretty negligible.

 Thanks.

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I was actually sort of being serious, but leaving the interpretation up to the reader. It provides value in probabilistic forecasting even if it would never change a deterministic forecast, but the level of value it brings is certainly low.

 

I think an "even the DGEX agrees" forecast is better than "the DGEX is on it's own with something different" scenario, and you damn well know that if the DGEX is the only model showing a huge nor'easter, somebody will latch onto it as a "possibility."

 

But then again, nobody is going to say "well the DGEX shows something different, so let's wait for the 0z ECMWF before making our forecast public."

 

But yeah, I used extremely small percentage increase to highlight the fact that I think it's value is pretty negligible.

 

 

Oh my mistake then...well I'd put pretty much no value in it personally...and haven't in my 10 years in the professional field.

 

I will find a model adds value if it is going to change any part of my forecast or certainty by disagreeing with model consensus. The DGEX doesn't fit that criteria for me. It is a poor verification determinisitic model that doesn't start until post-84 hours.

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Euro ensembles do show a storm SE of the BM for Dec 17-18...its been there for a couple runs now. But I'm not overly excited about it yet. I'd be more excited if the airmass was able to set in before the storm rather than almost as it is evolving. There's a high building in from the NW as the storm is trying to get organized.

 

But this thing could look worlds different in a couple days.

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Oh my mistake then...well I'd put pretty much no value in it personally...and haven't in my 10 years in the professional field.

 

I will find a model adds value if it is going to change any part of my forecast or certainty by disagreeing with model consensus. The DGEX doesn't fit that criteria for me. It is a poor verification determinisitic model that doesn't start until post-84 hours.

 

I can't say I've ever looked at it personally.

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