J Paul Gordon Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 5% on coast and 25% well inland was based on my reading of the current pattern (which looks like it will extend itself to pretty close to Christmas). Not a "torch" but just damp and cool to mild. Of course, fantasy pattern changes can occur early and a wish-storm can materialize and do wonders. I remember something like that happening in December 97 (I think it was 1997). We got 18" of snow on December 22 or 23 when NWS was calling for 2-4 max and changeover. It was a lousy winter preceded by a cold November. Not saying that this is a correct analog for the coming season, but my "prediction" for chances of a white Christmas are based on what seems to be the case for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Ponder this folks: Through 12/8 in a crap pattern: BOS: -1.3 ORH: -1.7 PVD: +0.4 BDL: -0.6 Gradient pattern? lol. ...And nothing frozen to show for it, except of course for a few mangled flakes yesterday, and a lovely death-glaze this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Preetttty sure is all Scott's fault ... yup. I made some post about a favorable type of autumn pattern for storminess (thank you very much, muah hahahaha) back in late October or early November, to which he retorted words to the affect of, "...Yeah, agreed. I just hope it's not a rain freeze rain freeze, rinse repeat type of deal..." I have noticed a fascinatingly high correlation coefficient value between Scott's jests and ensuing doomdom resulting ... so closely do these curves move together that I am driven to utter distraction: there must be some kind of physical principle in the natural universe, no matter how fuzzy or queer is the logic ... that bridges the barrier between what is purely rational, and what cannot be defined. But when faced with a problem, seemingly endless for it permutations/solutions, Sir William of Ockham once devised that among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected; this is oft' reworded as, removing all impossible reasons, whatever remains, however seemingly improbable, must be the cause. So, it seems pretty clear that despite the utter absurdity it must seem in making such a conclusion, if Scott had never opened his big fat thoughtless mean disgusting vile mouth, he would have never excited the demigod of weather into engineering a pattern that could not imaginatively be more perfectly wrong-polished. Thank you Scott! Thanks for ruining Christmas too - Having said all that ... I would keep an eye on that D9'ish range there. All major operational models show an N-stream and S-stream phase failure that I think still has some chance of becoming more of a player in that time range. The teleconnectors show another pulse/upward PNA modality leading to that time, and so western heights could need an up adjustment; any such correction would perilously dangle N-stream timing with the S-stream passing to the south. That is ... if the natural order of physics can over Scott's jest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 LOL, I don't know if I said those words, but anyways..the pattern will improve. I agree prior to Christmas too. Something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 LOL, I don't know if I said those words, but anyways..the pattern will improve. I agree prior to Christmas too. Something to watch Heh, thought it was you -- and I could swear, in the past you've been demonically prescient when possibly even just kidding at that well either way, some f^ck!er did. So perhaps our gratitude should be shifted toward that dumb sunnovabitch. J'k of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 We've had a lot of wintry events relative to climo so far. Given the kind of crappy pattern for early December...the little weenie snow event last night and the ice this morning is basically gravy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Heh, thought it was you -- and I could swear, in the past you've been demonically prescient when possibly even just kidding at that well either way, some f^ck!er did. So perhaps our gratitude should be shifted toward that dumb sunnovabitch. J'k of course... I honestly don't remember. You guys did have that Pre T day event though. I hope we can keep this train of lows going. If it keeps up, we'll get ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 We've had a lot of wintry events relative to climo so far. Given the kind of crappy pattern for early December...the little weenie snow event last night and the ice this morning is basically gravy to me. Most of the region is above snow climo to date right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Its pretty amazing that most people are above average snowfall early in the game here. It seems like we have been in the wasted cold camp for a few weeks now. Despite the crappy pattern, its felt wintry. Even though we know the pattern is crappy, when we manage to be cold, and then we rain, it still sucks. In the grand scheme, we haven't torched which is a plus, but we do seem to see cold retreating when events come in. I'm aware climo is poor, especially for this area for a good part of December. However, it is December and people want snow. Its kind of a perception thing. Its been cold so it should snow vs. Its a crappy pattern so we've been lucky its even cold. I still think the areas first widespread snow threat (to the coast) will come Christmas week, or around new years. We may miss Christmas, but I'm not sure we are spared much longer after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Oh I was just in the mood to make fun and humiliate and blame Scott, folks. I don't really think we're that bad off... Will's right, the "season" is performing better than normal. I think the winter heads might be spoiled? I dunno, but I can remember many more years in my tenure on this planet, around this lat/lon, ...where we did NOT receive snow at ANY time before Thanks Giving, and ...I dunno, maybe half the years it was pullin' teeth to coat the ground by XMass. Obviously it is mere coincidence but ... someone did dread a rain freeze repeater, and this week fits that description.... Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I don't think many are complaining about wasting things so far. If we end December without a more regional event, then I think people can be disappointed..but up through now it's been ok around here locally. Even better in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I don't think many are complaining about wasting things so far. If we end December without a more regional event, then I think people can be disappointed..but up through now it's been ok around here locally. Even better in the interior. I literally never know what the Hell any of you are talking about. I only know that it is all wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I literally never know what the Hell any of you are talking about. I only know that it is all wrong. Maybe your meds need to be re-adjusted..... worked for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Maybe your meds need to be re-adjusted..... worked for me Yeah, you seem to be making sense of everything now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I literally never know what the Hell any of you are talking about. I only know that it is all wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 12z GFS is printing out something close to what I imagine for around the 18th of DEC, PNA returns to more of a +1 PNA status and NAO is neutral as well as AO. Also there is a lot of cold air around after the 16th according to most model runs. 00z EURO ENS mean is offshore with the GFS low that acts like a bowling ball clipper within the northern stream. I'm really excited for Cape Cod's first accumulating snowfall to occur on the 18th or near the 18th followed by another big storm sometime within five days of this storm. Back to back events to make for a white Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 12z GFS is printing out something close to what I imagine for around the 18th of DEC, PNA returns to more of a +1 PNA status and NAO is neutral as well as AO. Also there is a lot of cold air around after the 16th according to most model runs. 00z EURO ENS mean is offshore with the GFS low that acts like a bowling ball clipper within the northern stream. I'm really excited for Cape Cod's first accumulating snowfall to occur on the 18th or near the 18th followed by another big storm sometime within five days of this storm. Back to back events to make for a white Christmas? ...Did...did you just lock in the GFS at hr 168 and beyond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 EURO model hasn't shown any signs of northern stream involvement lately, wonder if that will change if we get closer to the 18th, ENS means show the cold air returning after a brief warm up once the ull cut off moves out into the Atlantic Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 ...Did...did you just lock in the GFS at hr 168 and beyond? This run along with the ensemble means for both the GGEM, GFS and EURO all support a colder scenario than the operational EURO is showing, normally go with the consensus rather than one model which is a global separate model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Why we went with the EURO for today's storm is a given, because not only did the EURO show it, it had a lot of support from its ensembles and other global's ensembles mean. If the EURO is by itself, it is not the most accurate, but if supported than you side with the EURO, same with the GFS, however most times the GFS is by itself while the EURO model has support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 While I think the 16th-18th isn't impossible to work out(Albeit unlikely), I'd be more interested in the 20th-22nd period if I was looking for a white Christmas in SNE. That one's got ensemble support for a signal in the period and is starting to show up on the LR GFS as well for a few runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 One thing the GFS is showing for the long term pattern, is that the sub-tropical jet stream remains active and provides the pattern with moisture laden storms. We just need a full on phase with the northern stream to allow a colder scenario to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I like the 16-18th period given that most of this period is warmer than normal followed by colder than normal means. This is most likely period for some type of storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Why we went with the EURO for today's storm is a given, because not only did the EURO show it, it had a lot of support from its ensembles and other global's ensembles mean. If the EURO is by itself, it is not the most accurate, but if supported than you side with the EURO, same with the GFS, however most times the GFS is by itself while the EURO model has support. Hmmm...even so it seems a little premature to lock in a white Xmas on the Cape. Where do you get the Euro ens.? I keep thinking of those maps with the overhead view of the globe but I don't know where to find them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Hmmm...even so it seems a little premature to lock in a white Xmas on the Cape. Where do you get the Euro ens.? I keep thinking of those maps with the overhead view of the globe but I don't know where to find them. I get access on the American WX model page, or Raleigh Wx page, you have to pay about 27$ for a year round payment or 9$ a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Massive snowstorm for interior SNE night of the 21st into 22nd. Not progressive either...plenty of snowshowers left over into 23rd. Crystal ball ensembles and ops show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The models show a nice little reprieve in the action with some warmth between the 15th and 18th of DEC, however the models end the warm up with a front and clipper moving through the 17th or 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 6z DGEX shows this becoming more of a winter period after the 17th as well, shows a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 6z DGEX shows this becoming more of a winter period after the 17th as well, shows a clipper. Your weenie-meter is about an 11 on a scale of 1-10 when you start using the DGEX to talk about long range pattern potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Your weenie-meter is about an 11 on a scale of 1-10 when you start using the DGEX to talk about long range pattern potential. True, but I did reference every other model we use for forecasting first. The 12z GFS is showing signs that we will get into a winter like pattern after the 17th, and the DGEX is coming in line with the rest of the guidance, even the EURO shows the same energy that the 12z GFS does which spawns the ocean storm on the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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