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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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Are the gefs pattern better looking than what we're seeing at the end of the op runs? I'm not impressed with the cold I' m seeing north of us at the end of these op runs. Example: 18z gfs has -10c at 850 as being the coldest in Canada which is lame imo. I'd like to br seeing between -20 anf -30 up there.

Not exactly, it'll take awhile to clean up the damage done in Canada but we will be on our way if we get the -EPO +PNA and -AO at least

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Not exactly, it'll take awhile to clean up the damage done in Canada but we will be on our way if we get the -EPO +PNA and -AO at least

What happens is that the ridging develops in the PNA region of western Canada and then retros a bit to setup a more -EPO it seems down the road. Canada will get cold. Not worried about that.

Good news. So sounds like the cold eventually wobbles back on this side of the planet, which the week 4 Euro weeklies showed the other day.

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There are signs of a storm before Christmas, but again we may be dealing with a marginal airmass. Looks like any real change comes at that time or more likely after Christmas.

Ive been watching that 18-20 time period for an EC storm out of the GOM. Airmass may be marginal but it looks promising and with the +PNA coupled with maybe getting a 50/50 block its not out of the question IMO

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Hmmm...

Warm air mass vs. cold air mass = interesting. Who'd a thunk it.

It's still thread the needle, many more ways to go wrong than right, but there is some potential in this pattern.

I don't know who anyone else is trying to fool, but it's the chase that really matters. I foresee at least a couple trackable disappointments in the next two weeks.

 

I hate you.

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i never thought this week was...(though certainly thought warmer than the cut-off will allow) but figured next week would be pretty toasty.

 

 

Yeah I definitely thought we'd get 2-4 pretty warm days at minimum once this thing got out of here. Getting mild ridging right over the top is a torch pattern for us. But this ULL spinning there for days doesn't allow the midwest/plains ridging to really amplify into our area...kind of gets flattened out, so we get spared for the most part. It didn't really look like that 3-5 days ago.

 

We'll still probably have some above average days, but just not as warm as it could have been.

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Yeah I definitely thought we'd get 2-4 pretty warm days at minimum once this thing got out of here. Getting mild ridging right over the top is a torch pattern for us. But this ULL spinning there for days doesn't allow the midwest/plains ridging to really amplify into our area...kind of gets flattened out, so we get spared for the most part. It didn't really look like that 3-5 days ago.

 

We'll still probably have some above average days, but just not as warm as it could have been.

yeah exactly. that was my thought as well.

 

i think it may still end up AN (obviously averages are dropping quick now) but those massive + departures to the west look like they don't ever get to roll over the top and get into NE - at least not for more than a day or two. 

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i never thought this week was...(though certainly thought warmer than the cut-off will allow) but figured next week would be pretty toasty.

Yeah I didn't mean we wouldn't see any warm weather, but maybe 2-3 warm days. I still wouldn't qualify that as a torch pattern I guess. Too much HP overhead. What aggravated me was how lousy it was. Big highs but just no cold air. That's what I was basically touting. A real lousy stretch. We'll see how it all breaks out.

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Cory = huge weenie

There's a reason everyone from Paul Kocin to TJ Del Santo will tell you I deserve tge "The Snowman" name. I've worked at it for a while lol.

And it is snowing those little balls right now. What are they called anyway? It's like it's so cold that they can't be flakes but it isn't sleet obviously. Is like Snow Sleet or Sleety Snow.

Can not believe how cold or continues to be and Mega train is inbound.

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There's a reason everyone from Paul Kocin to TJ Del Santo will tell you I deserve tge "The Snowman" name. I've worked at it for a while lol.

And it is snowing those little balls right now. What are they called anyway? It's like it's so cold that they can't be flakes but it isn't sleet obviously. Is like Snow Sleet or Sleety Snow.

Can not believe how cold or continues to be and Mega train is inbound.

Probably snow grains.

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