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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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I am wondering what is driving this positive NAO we had this last winter too but had a negative EPO to help us.

 

Not a clue, SSTs argue it should be strongly negative, but many times during the 1980-1994 period we had SST patterns like this and a positive NAO...I'm not too up to speed on NAO stuff but I have on and off seen stuff written claiming we may be going into a more positive NAO regime again much as we did in the 80s.

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In the marginal areas they count just about everything freezing or frozen as 10-1 snow. So you get the extreme cut off line on the southern edge of where "it could possibly be snow".

 

Up in your area it might be ok by assuming 10-1 as it does, or you might have even better ratios than it thinks.

 

But hey it's fun to look at. :).

The weatherbell snow maps make my head spin.  They are so bad, just so bad.

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Not a clue, SSTs argue it should be strongly negative, but many times during the 1980-1994 period we had SST patterns like this and a positive NAO...I'm not too up to speed on NAO stuff but I have on and off seen stuff written claiming we may be going into a more positive NAO regime again much as we did in the 80s.

Not surprising....we had a great run of -nao winters. Regression now taken shape.

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The weatherbell snow maps make my head spin.  They are so bad, just so bad.  It likes to think it snows with mid-level temps above freezing.

 

Yeah way too much snow down in CT on that...and probably not enough near Ray based on what I saw on the Euro.

 

But the maps are weenie fodder as it is...nevermind analyzing them versus a 132 hour OP run to begin with.

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This event?

 

 

 

That was only round two. Round 1 gave like 10-15 inches for ORH county and Berks...epic 1-2 punch like 18 hours apart. We had 26" total IMBY...to go with the thundersnow famously seen on TWC with Cantore.

 

Round 1 actually was ok for E MA too...dynamically flipped to S+ after rain.

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Not surprising....we had a great run of -nao winters. Regression now taken shape.

 

We switched regimes in 1995 so its been close to 20 years, unfortunately, unlike the previous NAO period that average very negative this one has had many positive NAO winters such as 1997-2000 and even another stretch in the 2000s.

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We switched regimes in 1995 so its been close to 20 years, unfortunately, unlike the previous NAO period that average very negative this one has had many positive NAO winters such as 1997-2000 and even another stretch in the 2000s.

Ya not good for snow lovers such as myself. Hopefully the NAO goes negative before Christmas.

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That was only round two. Round 1 gave like 10-15 inches for ORH county and Berks...epic 1-2 punch like 18 hours apart. We had 26" total IMBY...to go with the thundersnow famously seen on TWC with Cantore.

 

Round 1 actually was ok for E MA too...dynamically flipped to S+ after rain.

 

Oh nice.  I didn't know that event was the t-snow Cantore clip...that's a classic.

 

There must've been some wild banding, as there are a bunch of 20"+ amounts in NE VT near Lyndon, and its hard for that area to get dumped on in nor'easters because of the Whites. 

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Chances are it won't.

I'd rather it even track farther west......but odds are that extreme cut off as evident in my neighbor's back hard on the EURO will not verify.

Either send it farther east, or cut further west.

Thanks.

 

Haha... the "if I have to get shafted, I want everyone to get shafted" mentality. 

 

But yeah, I can see where that would be hard in your area.  Its one thing for CNE/NNE to get snow, but to rain while watching ORH pick up 12"+ is grounds for annoyance.

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It was nothing special around ALB...maybe six inches.

Oh nice.  I didn't know that event was the t-snow Cantore clip...that's a classic.

 

There must've been some wild banding, as there are a bunch of 20"+ amounts in NE VT near Lyndon, and its hard for that area to get dumped on in nor'easters because of the Whites. 

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