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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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I suspect this area would do well on the EC--probably some taint as it is, but lots of time.

 

Of course, I'll be experiencing it vicariously from the prairie.  I think the the odds that I can convince my wife to take 6-hour measurements are about strong as a NAM run..

You don't come anywhere near taint on the Euro

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This run hit N ME pretty well at the last minute. It's still blowing up that clipper system <1000mb through James Bay. Maybe a little overzealous on the WAA ahead of that? Good trend at least.

 

 

Yeah still way too dominant with that northern stream...but it at least has the southern stream showing up to the party now. Better than not showing up at all.

 

It's almost worthless at this point to be looking at the GFS until this gets closer. It has been dominated in the D5 range so far this cold season by the Euro.

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Yeah still way too dominant with that northern stream...but it at least has the southern stream showing up to the party now. Better than not showing up at all.

 

It's almost worthless at this point to be looking at the GFS until this gets closer. It has been dominated in the D5 range so far this cold season by the Euro.

 

Objection: the season has not been and will continue to not be cold.

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Yeah still way too dominant with that northern stream...but it at least has the southern stream showing up to the party now. Better than not showing up at all.

 

It's almost worthless at this point to be looking at the GFS until this gets closer. It has been dominated in the D5 range so far this cold season by the Euro.

 

We just need the EURO to pull east a tad, maybe to the benchmark for a nice coastal storm, it even has a jet worth up to 70knots.

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If this is gonna happen, the GFS will catch on fully by later Saturday or certainly on Sunday. Then it will be increasingly useful. It might even fight the Euro to a draw sometimes in the final 24 hours.

GFS is still too progressive with the northern stream shortwave at hour 104.  Guess is that it falls in line after the 00z run tonight into the Saturday timeframe when the northern stream wave gets sampled.  Southern stream shortwave over the southwestern US is stronger than modeled.

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If this is gonna happen, the GFS will catch on fully by later Saturday or certainly on Sunday. Then it will be increasingly useful. It might even fight the Euro to a draw sometimes in the final 24 hours.

 

I think by 0z tonight you will see more steps towards the Euro as we did with 18z just now. And yes, I beelieve it will be on board by Satuday if this is a real potential...which it seems to be headed in that general direction.

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Cut that Weatherbell heavy snow swath in half and and the northwest half might be fairly realistic (assuming the underlying model depiction). They use a straight 10-1 ratio.

 

But the half of the map where mid and upper levels get polluted with some >0  and even low level temps are a challenge ...will be pretty unreliable.

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