ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Match the op? Pretty close, a little SE...which is to be expected. Looks like some decent spread as the low pressure center becomes quite large further out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I'd take a track like that. Rain to snow as some good cold air works in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I'm also beginning to see the N PAC reshuffle at day 10. The GOA trough does not look to be nearly as stable of a feature (it's much less broad), and the core of the lowest heights has definitely reshuffled/retrograded to being west of the Aleutians, with some amplification between that low and the GOA trough. Lost in all of the storm talk is how we fight the predicted warmup back more and more , maybe enough to buy us time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Lost in all of the storm talk is how we fight the predicted warmup back more and more , maybe enough to buy us time Yeah, as long as the warmup gets delayed more and more, but the N PAC reshuffling does not get delayed, then the warmup won't last all that long. It's going to be hard to avoid a decent warmup for a few days, but 10 days to 2 weeks of torching is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Again, it's not the temps really..it's the overall pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I really think if we can get that Panhandle hook to develop Days 10-12 which the Euro seems to want to do its last 2 runs that can be the bowling ball that begins to change the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 PF is already back patting himself . Just wouldnt be fun for anyone here to have to be on the outside looking in Haha, when I am ever one to give myself congrats at 5 days lead time? Hell even 12 hours prior I assume something will go wrong. But I'm going to comment on the EURO runs like anyone else would, too. Don't worry, I'll be smoking cirrus sooner or later Blizzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Some improvement on the tail end of the euro ensembles. Again, it's not really a "torch" pattern, it's just a real lousy and crappy stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 We might make it back to normalcy by the end of the Euro ensembles...at least cold enough that we could talk about snow again...we'll have to see how it evolves. It looks like the crap phase might be after next week's storm until about 12/18-19...but the end date could get pushed out further if it's a faux light at the end of the tunnel on the Euro ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 We might make it back to normalcy by the end of the Euro ensembles...at least cold enough that we could talk about snow again...we'll have to see how it evolves. It looks like the crap phase might be after next week's storm until about 12/18-19...but the end date could get pushed out further if it's a faux light at the end of the tunnel on the Euro ens. So the cold shot mid and late week the op runs have isn't there on the ENS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It's there, Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The CNE/SNE designation is arbitrary anyway when talking sensible wx...do we consider Westminster, MA as CNE but not Paxton, MA? Or what about Ipswich, NH vs Ashburnham, MA? what about winter hill at 900 feet in N ORH vs Princeton, MA? We use the terms CNE and NNE and SNE...but the reality is that we kind of know where the boundaries of sensible wx setup quite frequently and they don't go along smooth latitude lines unfortunately. Sometimes it's raining in Nashua and Paxton, MA is getting a paste job. I think you could basically draw a diagonal line from Portsmouth NH to Nashua NH to KFIT to Springfield to the NY border, anything north of there is CNE until NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Again, it's not the temps really..it's the overall pattern. sensible weather especially at ski resorts are my only concerns, we keep slightly above climo with precip and I have no complaints. As long as we aren't days and days of 50s NBD and pretty much climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Hasn't really been discussed..but it looks like the rain could end as snow Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I think you could basically draw a diagonal line from Portsmouth NH to Nashua NH to KFIT to Springfield to the NY border, anything north of there is CNE until NNE What about ORH then? Climate quite different from BOS and Providence.... but then does SNE end up being the Cape, SE MA, RI, and CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Have I missed something or is yesterday's fantasy storm creeping back into the picture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Hasn't really been discussed..but it looks like the rain could end as snow Sunday morning I looked, seemed like it may dry out a hair too quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Have I missed something or is yesterday's fantasy storm creeping back into the picture? Yes, apparently you didn't read anything from the thread prior to the last 12-15 posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 15z SREFs are in and show higher probs for snowfall on Saturday night into Sunday of this weekend. I wonder if they are picking up on the northeasterly winds from the high situated north of ME. Could just be the cold air filtering into the region as precip shuts down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 15z SREFs are in and show higher probs for snowfall on Saturday night into Sunday of this weekend. I wonder if they are picking up on the northeasterly winds from the high situated north of ME. Could just be the cold air filtering into the region as precip shuts down. There probably isn't a model any worse at this timeframe. Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 What about ORH then? Climate quite different from BOS and Providence.... but then does SNE end up being the Cape, SE MA, RI, and CT? We'd tear our hair out trying to identify all the anomalous pockets caused by topography and aspect. The coops west/SW of Sebago Lake get 10-15" more annual snowfall than LEW, though they're 20-30 miles to the south and about the same disance from salt water and with no significant elevation to add orographics (unlike ORH.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 We'd tear our hair out trying to identify all the anomalous pockets caused by topography and aspect. The coops west/SW of Sebago Lake get 10-15" more annual snowfall than LEW, though they're 20-30 miles to the south and about the same disance from salt water and with no significant elevation to add orographics (unlike ORH.) Exactly. New England can't actually be neatly segregated into three distinct geographic regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 There probably isn't a model any worse at this timeframe. Toss. I'm actually thinking, at least at this point in time, that the SREF's have no real value. At all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 So like when is the SREFs valuable? within 48 hours of an event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 18z GFS still coming in more progressive, NAM and GFS are at odds at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Exactly. New England can't actually be neatly segregated into three distinct geographic regions. Yea even in Ct there are easily 9 different climos. NW Hills, SW coast,,SW hills, NCT hills, NE hills, CCT valley, CCT coast, SE coast, and SE Hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 So like when is the SREFs valuable? within 48 hours of an event? Here's my take: The SREFs have minor curiosity value for 30 minutes until the NAM runs. The NAM has minor curiosity value for about 60 minutes until the GFS runs. The GFS is useful as tea leaves for predicting what will happen on the Euro. Sometimes. The Euro, in the hands of a skilled meteorologist, is useful for predicting the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 GFS is trying this run. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Here's my take: The SREFs have minor curiosity value for 30 minutes until the NAM runs. The NAM has minor curiosity value for about 60 minutes until the GFS runs. The GFS is useful as tea leaves for predicting what will happen on the Euro. Sometimes. The Euro, in the hands of a skilled meteorologist, is useful for predicting the weather. Save a horse ride the Euro but be careful of its thermal profile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I'm actually thinking, at least at this point in time, that the SREF's have no real value. At all. You might want ask ask me what it's going to do. My skills are just about as accurate. (Is there a coin-toss icon?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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