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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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I'm also beginning to see the N PAC reshuffle at day 10. The GOA trough does not look to be nearly as stable of a feature (it's much less broad), and the core of the lowest heights has definitely reshuffled/retrograded to being west of the Aleutians, with some amplification between that low and the GOA trough. 

Lost in all of the storm talk is how we fight the predicted warmup back more and more , maybe enough to buy us time

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Lost in all of the storm talk is how we fight the predicted warmup back more and more , maybe enough to buy us time

 

 

Yeah, as long as the warmup gets delayed more and more, but the N PAC reshuffling does not get delayed, then the warmup won't last all that long.

 

It's going to be hard to avoid a decent warmup for a few days, but 10 days to 2 weeks of torching is unlikely. 

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PF is already back patting himself . Just wouldnt be fun for anyone here to have to be on the outside looking in

 

Haha, when I am ever one to give myself congrats at 5 days lead time?  Hell even 12 hours prior I assume something will go wrong.  But I'm going to comment on the EURO runs like anyone else would, too.  Don't worry, I'll be smoking cirrus sooner or later Blizzy.

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We might make it back to normalcy by the end of the Euro ensembles...at least cold enough that we could talk about snow again...we'll have to see how it evolves. It looks like the crap phase might be after next week's storm until about 12/18-19...but the end date could get pushed out further if it's a faux light at the end of the tunnel on the Euro ens.

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We might make it back to normalcy by the end of the Euro ensembles...at least cold enough that we could talk about snow again...we'll have to see how it evolves. It looks like the crap phase might be after next week's storm until about 12/18-19...but the end date could get pushed out further if it's a faux light at the end of the tunnel on the Euro ens.

So the cold shot mid and late week the op runs have isn't there on the ENS?

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The CNE/SNE designation is arbitrary anyway when talking sensible wx...do we consider Westminster, MA as CNE but not Paxton, MA?

 

Or what about Ipswich, NH vs Ashburnham, MA? what about winter hill at 900 feet in N ORH vs Princeton, MA?

 

We use the terms CNE and NNE and SNE...but the reality is that we kind of know where the boundaries of sensible wx setup quite frequently and they don't go along smooth latitude lines unfortunately. Sometimes it's raining in Nashua and Paxton, MA is getting a paste job.

I think you could basically draw a diagonal line from Portsmouth NH  to Nashua NH to KFIT to Springfield to the NY border, anything north of there is CNE until NNE 

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I think you could basically draw a diagonal line from Portsmouth NH  to Nashua NH to KFIT to Springfield to the NY border, anything north of there is CNE until NNE 

What about ORH then? Climate quite different from BOS and Providence.... but then does SNE end up being the Cape, SE MA, RI, and CT?

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15z SREFs are in and show higher probs for snowfall on Saturday night into Sunday of this weekend.  I wonder if they are picking up on the northeasterly winds from the high situated north of ME.  Could just be the cold air filtering into the region as precip shuts down.

There probably isn't a model any worse at this timeframe.  Toss.

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What about ORH then? Climate quite different from BOS and Providence.... but then does SNE end up being the Cape, SE MA, RI, and CT?

 

We'd tear our hair out trying to identify all the anomalous pockets caused by topography and aspect.  The coops west/SW of Sebago Lake get 10-15" more annual snowfall than LEW, though they're 20-30 miles to the south and about the same disance from salt water and with no significant elevation to add orographics (unlike ORH.)

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We'd tear our hair out trying to identify all the anomalous pockets caused by topography and aspect.  The coops west/SW of Sebago Lake get 10-15" more annual snowfall than LEW, though they're 20-30 miles to the south and about the same disance from salt water and with no significant elevation to add orographics (unlike ORH.)

 

Exactly. New England can't actually be neatly segregated into three distinct geographic regions.

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So like when is the SREFs valuable?  within 48 hours of an event?

 

Here's my take:

 

The SREFs have minor curiosity value for 30 minutes until the NAM runs.

 

The NAM has minor curiosity value for about 60 minutes until the GFS runs.

 

The GFS is useful as tea leaves for predicting what will happen on the Euro.  Sometimes.

 

The Euro, in the hands of a skilled meteorologist, is useful for predicting the weather.

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Here's my take:

 

The SREFs have minor curiosity value for 30 minutes until the NAM runs.

 

The NAM has minor curiosity value for about 60 minutes until the GFS runs.

 

The GFS is useful as tea leaves for predicting what will happen on the Euro.  Sometimes.

 

The Euro, in the hands of a skilled meteorologist, is useful for predicting the weather.

Save a horse ride the Euro but be careful of its thermal profile

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