Whineminster Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Well the storm is coming ashore on the west coast now so it will be better sampled from this point forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Well the storm is coming ashore on the west coast now so it will be better sampled from this point forward The crucial shortwave is actually not onshore until 12z Saturday...it comes ashore near Portland, OR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Finally saw the euro. Might have to go party at the Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Details being irrelevant at this point, but seeing the GGEM/UKMET/ECMWF all with a strong low near the coast next week raises confidence in some sort of storm. The EURO has been doing well in this pattern lately, so the GFS non-event isn't as concerning. If you blended the models and put the low a little further east, that's a size able hit for the interior SNE/NNE. Definitely want this set of models on our side, Details to be worked out going forward, GFS will come around at some point just like the last few events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Two things stand out. The euro is sharper with the PNA ridge, and also has that lead srn s/w that sort of gets the ball rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Well luckily nothing is locked in at this juncture, Just let this keep showing up for another day or two You get taken to the woodshed on that run too...haha. Looks like the mid-level warmth stays right at the coast. Probably one heck of a CF along the Maine coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Maybe we see a blended track like last storm between the Euro/GGEM and the GFS and this actually goes east of ACK again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Verbatim, this is definitely a better setup at the coast vs last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 You get taken to the woodshed on that run too...haha. Looks like the mid-level warmth stays right at the coast. Probably one heck of a CF along the Maine coast. As i figured, I would be just NW of the CF right where you want to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Verbatim, this is definitely a better setup at the coast vs last storm. The leftover CAD wedge is definitely more favorable, but it's still pretty crappy on the coast. You need that high to hold its ground a bit longer N of CAR...it could happen, but right now, it's not showing that. It's a very good setup for interior...Euro has a monster easterly LLJ firehose ripping into that cold wedge over the interior...E slope of ORH hills, Monads, Berks would clean up in that setup. If we hold that high N of CAR better, then you secure that cold wedge much closer to the coast and not at 128 or 495 or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I'm also beginning to see the N PAC reshuffle at day 10. The GOA trough does not look to be nearly as stable of a feature (it's much less broad), and the core of the lowest heights has definitely reshuffled/retrograded to being west of the Aleutians, with some amplification between that low and the GOA trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The setup is horrible for the coast. You would need that high like Will said, or have the storm further east and a sooner flip to snow. Not that details matter..but just speaking verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 JMA is like the Euro, just warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It doesn't really mean anything given it is in clown range, but the Euro has "bootleg cold" over us D9-10...that decaying high just sits over us, but highs are probably around freezing or below even though 850 temps warm to near 0C...no mixing and mid Dec sun angle FTL for warm temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The setup is horrible for the coast. You would need that high like Will said, or have the storm further east and a sooner flip to snow. Not that details matter..but just speaking verbatim.Right, the position of the high is what is key. At least there is a feature that could bring snow to the coast in this setup if in the right spot.Obviously a lot will change, but thats a great setup for the interior Basically, without discussing details 5 days out, that high is the critical component in any future scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 You wonder with the blocking if this just keeps coming west on future runs. Most of us are screwed on that run verbatim. Hopefully it doesn't turn into a Hudson Valley Runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 You wonder with the blocking if this just keeps coming west on future runs. Most of us are screwed on that run verbatim. Hopefully it doesn't turn into a Hudson Valley Runner You were probably like 25-30 miles from getting 12"+ that run...there's a lot of time for this to change and for people to spike footballs or tie nooses based on OP solutions 100+ hours out. I'd obviously rather be in CNE/NNE elevations, but it's certainly possible for SNE interior to get a good storm out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 You were probably like 25-30 miles from getting 12"+ that run...there's a lot of time for this to change and for people to spike footballs or tie nooses based on OP solutions 100+ hours out. I'd obviously rather be in CNE/NNE elevations, but it's certainly possible for SNE interior to get a good storm out of this. PF is already back patting himself . Just wouldnt be fun for anyone here to have to be on the outside looking in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 We have talked about this before, but was CNE determined to be RT 2 north or in this setup it would be defined differently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 We have talked about this before, but was CNE determined to be RT 2 north or in this setup it would be defined differently? It sort of depends on how far east you are talking... Rte 2 in Concord, MA would not seem to be CNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The crucial shortwave is actually not onshore until 12z Saturday...it comes ashore near Portland, OR. Oh man I can't wait that long! I'll just keep my toaster plugged in and on standby until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It sort of depends on how far east you are talking... Rte 2 in Concord, MA would not seem to be CNE The CNE/SNE designation is arbitrary anyway when talking sensible wx...do we consider Westminster, MA as CNE but not Paxton, MA? Or what about Ipswich, NH vs Ashburnham, MA? what about winter hill at 900 feet in N ORH vs Princeton, MA? We use the terms CNE and NNE and SNE...but the reality is that we kind of know where the boundaries of sensible wx setup quite frequently and they don't go along smooth latitude lines unfortunately. Sometimes it's raining in Nashua and Paxton, MA is getting a paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Lol P006, just lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Euro ensembles certainly have the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The CNE/SNE designation is arbitrary anyway when talking sensible wx...do we consider Westminster, MA as CNE but not Paxton, MA? Or what about Ipswich, NH vs Ashburnham, MA? what about winter hill at 900 feet in N ORH vs Princeton, MA? We use the terms CNE and NNE and SNE...but the reality is that we kind of know where the boundaries of sensible wx setup quite frequently and they don't go along smooth latitude lines unfortunately. Sometimes it's raining in Nashua and Paxton, MA is getting a paste job. Yeah which is why I was wondering in this setup if it would be more central NH versus where we would typically designate CNE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Will, the 12z EURO has an intense 65-75 knot easterly low level jet impacting SNE. Precip totals likely over 2"+, like the CMC has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Euro ensembles certainly have the storm. Pretty good 6 hourly qpf panels too on the mean. The 126 and 132 hour panels each have over a quarter inch of precip for E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Euro ensembles certainly have the storm. Match the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Pretty good 6 hourly qpf panels too on the mean. The 126 and 132 hour panels each have over a quarter inch of precip for E MA. A lot more happy campers with that low track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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