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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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Details being irrelevant at this point, but seeing the GGEM/UKMET/ECMWF all with a strong low near the coast next week raises confidence in some sort of storm. The EURO has been doing well in this pattern lately, so the GFS non-event isn't as concerning.

If you blended the models and put the low a little further east, that's a size able hit for the interior SNE/NNE.

Definitely want this set of models on our side, Details to be worked out going forward, GFS will come around at some point just like the last few events

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Verbatim, this is definitely a better setup at the coast vs last storm.

 

The leftover CAD wedge is definitely more favorable, but it's still pretty crappy on the coast. You need that high to hold its ground a bit longer N of CAR...it could happen, but right now, it's not showing that. It's a very good setup for interior...Euro has a monster easterly LLJ firehose ripping into that cold wedge over the interior...E slope of ORH hills, Monads, Berks would clean up in that setup.

 

If we hold that high N of CAR better, then you secure that cold wedge much closer to the coast and not at 128 or 495 or something like that.

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I'm also beginning to see the N PAC reshuffle at day 10. The GOA trough does not look to be nearly as stable of a feature (it's much less broad), and the core of the lowest heights has definitely reshuffled/retrograded to being west of the Aleutians, with some amplification between that low and the GOA trough. 

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It doesn't really mean anything given it is in clown range, but the Euro has "bootleg cold" over us D9-10...that decaying high just sits over us, but highs are probably around freezing or below even though 850 temps warm to near 0C...no mixing and mid Dec sun angle FTL for warm temps.

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The setup is horrible for the coast. You would need that high like Will said, or have the storm further east and a sooner flip to snow. Not that details matter..but just speaking verbatim.

Right, the position of the high is what is key. At least there is a feature that could bring snow to the coast in this setup if in the right spot.

Obviously a lot will change, but thats a great setup for the interior

Basically, without discussing details 5 days out, that high is the critical component in any future scenario

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You wonder with the blocking if this just keeps coming west on future runs. Most of us are screwed on that run verbatim. Hopefully it doesn't turn into a Hudson Valley Runner

 

You were probably like 25-30 miles from getting 12"+ that run...there's a lot of time for this to change and for people to spike footballs or tie nooses based on OP solutions 100+ hours out.

 

I'd obviously rather be in CNE/NNE elevations, but it's certainly possible for SNE interior to get a good storm out of this.

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You were probably like 25-30 miles from getting 12"+ that run...there's a lot of time for this to change and for people to spike footballs or tie nooses based on OP solutions 100+ hours out.

I'd obviously rather be in CNE/NNE elevations, but it's certainly possible for SNE interior to get a good storm out of this.

PF is already back patting himself . Just wouldnt be fun for anyone here to have to be on the outside looking in
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It sort of depends on how far east you are talking...  Rte 2 in Concord, MA would not seem to be CNE

 

 

The CNE/SNE designation is arbitrary anyway when talking sensible wx...do we consider Westminster, MA as CNE but not Paxton, MA?

 

Or what about Ipswich, NH vs Ashburnham, MA? what about winter hill at 900 feet in N ORH vs Princeton, MA?

 

We use the terms CNE and NNE and SNE...but the reality is that we kind of know where the boundaries of sensible wx setup quite frequently and they don't go along smooth latitude lines unfortunately. Sometimes it's raining in Nashua and Paxton, MA is getting a paste job.

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The CNE/SNE designation is arbitrary anyway when talking sensible wx...do we consider Westminster, MA as CNE but not Paxton, MA?

 

Or what about Ipswich, NH vs Ashburnham, MA? what about winter hill at 900 feet in N ORH vs Princeton, MA?

 

We use the terms CNE and NNE and SNE...but the reality is that we kind of know where the boundaries of sensible wx setup quite frequently and they don't go along smooth latitude lines unfortunately. Sometimes it's raining in Nashua and Paxton, MA is getting a paste job.

Yeah which is why I was wondering in this setup if it would be more central NH versus where we would typically designate CNE...

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