CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The one interesting thing on the models is that it starts out marginal at best, but pretty good height falls develop with that disturbance moving in from the Great Lakes. If the Ukie is right, you are talking >300m height falls in 24 hrs. That's pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 You made my point. The fact they it makes everything a STS now doesn't help much. But, it has a storm. The GEFS have a legit storm, albeit well east. It's an improvement from 6z though. Better look. Models are honing in on cyclogenesis near the east coast, nobody can say what when where or how yet. I am sure you will find a turd in a bowl of ice cream at some point, but only real confidence is in Ens looks until the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Better look at the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 That isn't a good track for SNE. I'll take that over the GFS. At least it's not boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Models are honing in on cyclogenesis near the east coast, nobody can say what when where or how yet. I am sure you will find a turd in a bowl of ice cream at some point, but only real confidence is in Ens looks until the weekend. The whole thing is a bit of a turd, but sometimes you can make chicken salad from chicken sh*t. Disappointed Plymouth state doesn't get the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The ukie has a very mature cyclone by the point. The sfc is on the NE side of the 5H low. That would probably be a lot of snow to the west of it over SNE. So just for kicks, I'd bet that solution might be a snow to rain to heavy snow solution. Hard to say for sure and t doesn't really matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I'll take that over the GFS. At least it's not boring. QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The ukie has a very mature cyclone by the point. The sfc is on the NE side of the 5H low. That would probably be a lot of snow to the west of it over SNE. So just for kicks, I'd bet that solution might be a snow to rain to heavy snow solution. Hard to say for sure and t doesn't really matter. Thats pretty much what it showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The whole thing is a bit of a turd, but sometimes you can make chicken salad from chicken sh*t. Disappointed Plymouth state doesn't get the Ukie. What does that taste like? Maybe this can morph into a moderate event that makes everyone forget what's coming the week after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The Ukie almost seemed like a James Nichols solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Not tracking over SE Mass, Not good for many..............lol Let's have a discussion about favorable surface tracks again, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2014 Author Share Posted December 4, 2014 Crazy Uncle. Let's see of his more stable cousin agrees around 1:15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Let's have a discussion about favorable surface tracks again, lol. You would be sitting at the picnic table with a 30 pack with that ukie track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Euro is colder for the Fri night/Sat system which helps out NNE...it looks like it may try and stay snow from powderfreak-land over to Sunday River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Euro is colder for the Fri night/Sat system which helps out NNE...it looks like it may try and stay snow from powderfreak-land over to Sunday River. Can we talk about were people live? j.k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Euro is colder for the Fri night/Sat system which helps out NNE...it looks like it may try and stay snow from powderfreak-land over to Sunday River. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Can we talk about were people live? j.k Sure...nice rain event for you and most others...maybe starting as a brief period of SN- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Sure...nice rain event for you and most others...maybe starting as a brief period of SN- nice...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Euro is colder for the Fri night/Sat system which helps out NNE...it looks like it may try and stay snow from powderfreak-land over to Sunday River.It'll be close. American guidance was warmer and GGEM at least kept the higher elevations snow, but was a bit warm in the boundary layer. 925mb looks like the coldest layer on the EURO at first, but then it seems to warm moist adiabatically after 18z Saturday.Turns into an elevation snow event it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 12z EURO hour 99 looks absolutely nothing like the GFS. The northern and southern vorts are phasing and digging is well underway. Let's see what it does on the surface as it comes up the coast. but I'd bet this comes west of the 0z run. At the very least, it won't look like the GFS as a total miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 12z Euro looks good, Going to tuck the low further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Looks like the EURO is now trying to go back to the first storm and pull it closer to the coast at hour 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Interior SNE is getting smoked at 120 hours on the Euro...BL issues on the coast with the high a bit further east than solutions like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 too bad the HP has to slip east like that. nice example of how you get *&@-ed without getting screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Hour 120 moderate to heavy precipitation in SNE lighter precip in NNE, 0c 850 line runs basically on the MA/CT border dipping a touch south at points, 32f line at the surface goes from the NW corner of CT to ORH to coastal ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 992mb east of LI, Looks like the 12z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Sounds like Dec 1992 solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Wow, congrats interior. BL issues on the coastline although it's not godawful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 NNE smoked at hour 129, lots of rain for non-elevated SNE on this run. Would be another have/have not event verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Sounds like Dec 1992 solution Eh, a little bit different...you'd have trouble in this one with the mid-levels. N of MA border though gets ripped in the interior. Esp N ORH county to GC to Monads. It's just one verbatim solution though and the details don't mean anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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