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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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You made my point. The fact they it makes everything a STS now doesn't help much. But, it has a storm.

 

The GEFS have a legit storm, albeit well east. It's an improvement from 6z though. Better look.

Models are honing in on cyclogenesis near the east coast, nobody can say what when where or how yet. I am sure you will find a turd in a bowl of ice cream at some point, but only real confidence is in Ens looks until the weekend.

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Models are honing in on cyclogenesis near the east coast, nobody can say what when where or how yet. I am sure you will find a turd in a bowl of ice cream at some point, but only real confidence is in Ens looks until the weekend.

 

The whole thing is a bit of a turd, but sometimes you can make chicken salad from chicken sh*t. Disappointed Plymouth state doesn't get the Ukie.

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The ukie has a very mature cyclone by the point. The sfc is on the NE side of the 5H low. That would probably be a lot of snow to the west of it over SNE. So just for kicks, I'd bet that solution might be a snow to rain to heavy snow solution. Hard to say for sure and t doesn't really matter.

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The ukie has a very mature cyclone by the point. The sfc is on the NE side of the 5H low. That would probably be a lot of snow to the west of it over SNE. So just for kicks, I'd bet that solution might be a snow to rain to heavy snow solution. Hard to say for sure and t doesn't really matter.

Thats pretty much what it showed. 

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Euro is colder for the Fri night/Sat system which helps out NNE...it looks like it may try and stay snow from powderfreak-land over to Sunday River.

It'll be close. American guidance was warmer and GGEM at least kept the higher elevations snow, but was a bit warm in the boundary layer. 925mb looks like the coldest layer on the EURO at first, but then it seems to warm moist adiabatically after 18z Saturday.

Turns into an elevation snow event it seems.

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12z EURO hour 99 looks absolutely nothing like the GFS. The northern and southern vorts are phasing and digging is well underway. Let's see what it does on the surface as it comes up the coast. but I'd bet this comes west of the 0z run. At the very least, it won't look like the GFS as a total miss.

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Sounds like Dec 1992 solution

 

Eh, a little bit different...you'd have trouble in this one with the mid-levels. N of MA border though gets ripped in the interior. Esp N ORH county to GC to Monads.

 

 

It's just one verbatim solution though and the details don't mean anything yet.

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