powderfreak Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 That would be the first time since 2005...had a White T-day and a white Christmas that year. Same in 2002. I'd like to have a White Christmas that isn't ruined by a Grinch Storm though...like 2007 and 2008 were white Xmases but it was like a 5 or 6" battle-hardened glacier because of Grinch Storms right before...and of course last year where we had this 2" crust layer. Not as nice looking as snow hanging off bushes and Christmas decor. Still beats a brown Christmas for sure, but it would be nice to avoid that crap. Yeah there is definitely a difference, even though both go under "White Xmas". We need fresh "White Xmas" not stale "White Xmas". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Euro ensembles look kind of ugly for a while...but next week does look a bit colder than earlier after our Monday furnace. I tend to think the EPS are too warm in the current 11-15 day, im inclined to believe the GEFS/Can ens suite is capturing the cold waves that would clip across the Northeast in that setup a little better...With that being said, I would have also expected a better representation of the -EPO showing up by now on these runs given the MJO forecasts, as even on the colder gefs/can ens look the ridging is further east/PNA than mjo stuff would imply..maybe thats background nino/+pdo stuff playing in? Either way, Im skeptical of extended torching in new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Fresh snowfall for Christmas morning is the best. My fav's were '78 and '02. You didn't exist for '78 which was a geat one foot interior dump for the ALB area overnight into the morning. Then 2002 the great Nor'easter Xmas morning and into the overnight. Probably a half a dozen other times in my life we had other lesser events on Xmas. Yeah there is definitely a difference, even though both go under "White Xmas". We need fresh "White Xmas" not stale "White Xmas". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 I tend to think the EPS are too warm in the current 11-15 day, im inclined to believe the GEFS/Can ens suite is capturing the cold waves that would clip across the Northeast in that setup a little better...With that being said, I would have also expected a better representation of the -EPO showing up by now on these runs given the MJO forecasts, as even on the colder gefs/can ens look the ridging is further east/PNA than mjo stuff would imply..maybe thats background nino/+pdo stuff playing in? Either way, Im skeptical of extended torching in new england. ] Yeah I'm def not on the extended torch bandwagon. But we may struggle to find a good setup for bigger events. We might squeak out a SWFE or something. The one good thing is the best chance of cold in the country in the extended seems to be pointed at New England. Even if the northern plains torch a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2014 Author Share Posted November 28, 2014 The big difference vs last year is the availabity of water coming from the skies. Big snow winter just now beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 The GEFS look classic Nino. Low height anomalies over the south. HP over the Plains, but lack of cold. Could be some marginal events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Yeah I'm def not on the extended torch bandwagon. But we may struggle to find a good setup for bigger events. We might squeak out a SWFE or something. The one good thing is the best chance of cold in the country in the extended seems to be pointed at New England. Even if the northern plains torch a bit. I'm 100% with you there. Gonna be tough for snow events the next few weeks, but hopes for the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 The GEFS look classic Nino. Low height anomalies over the south. HP over the Plains, but lack of cold. Could be some marginal events?Hideous. Almost looks like a strong elNiño Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2014 Author Share Posted November 28, 2014 I am skeptical of the warm look. Canada cold flushed with the high heights north of AK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 I am skeptical of the warm look. Canada cold flushed with the high heights northof AK?Fear the AK vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Hideous. Almost looks like a strong el Niño Eh, it's not too bad. I don't expect an ensemble to show short cold shots either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 The GEFS look classic Nino. Low height anomalies over the south. HP over the Plains, but lack of cold. Could be some marginal events? I wonder if the W PAC system becoming a recurving typhoon has any legs. That may put a dent in the classic Nino look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 I wonder if the W PAC system becoming a recurving typhoon has any legs. That may put a dent in the classic Nino look. Yeah, something to watch for sure. This is basically a +PNA with a +NAO perhaps for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2014 Author Share Posted November 28, 2014 Fear the AK vortex I don't. You do. H5 low over Aleutians is what we want right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 I don't. You do. H5 low over Aleutians is what we want right? Man I need to dig up the post where I told PF he would have over 4 feet in Nov at the summitt. they and others up there are just getting pounded. We are on the right side of the gradient until the hammer drops, couple of mild up days, boring though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 I don't. You do. H5 low over Aleutians is what we want right?Yes but the whole thing is displaced to the east with forces all the warm air further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Yeah, something to watch for sure. This is basically a +PNA with a +NAO perhaps for a little while. Agreed. I do think (barring what this Typhoon does) we get some sort of Aleutian low -- > +PNA pattern developing by Mid Dec with some signs of STJ energy...so that could be a prety good pattern, but the high heights in the NAO look to be confined to Scandinavia as we approach mid-month. So it might be a fast split flow, PNA driven moderate event type pattern, with modified polar air instead of true Arctic, which could be decent. We may have to wait til closer to the holidays to see if the NAO truly responds for larger events. Though if we do get the Typhoon recurving...combined with the trends for blocking north of AK...that could bridge a really strong poleward EPO ridge. But a recuvring Typhoon this time of year is not a given at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Yes but the whole thing is displaced to the east with forces all the warm air further east Illustrated. Valid Dec 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2014 Author Share Posted November 28, 2014 Yes but the whole thing is displaced to the east with forces all the warm air further east Yes but the whole thing is displaced to the east with forces all the warm air further east Eh....that was also modeled for this week. High heights above it is all I need to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashFreeze Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Quick burst of moderate-heavy snow, 27, NW wind @ 11mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 LOL..I remember Danny the fanny was making those same types of posts a couple weeks ago for this time period and instead of warmth we're all shivering buried under Ice and snow shooting calendar shots for Currier & Ives. It's been the pattern since sumer..Models show long term torches and warmth and it ends up being a few days scattered in amongst a sea of cold..october was the exception. It's a winter pattern..that instead of Hammertime..may go Vanilla Ice on us for a short few days over the next 10-14..but after that we put on the hammer pants and dance all over peoples faces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Euro creating some possible Wintry mischief days 9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Was just thinking this. Seems the pattern should be setting up by then. Let's make it 2 for 2 white holidays You had a white t-day? I did not think it had snowed enough on Wednesday to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 You had a white t-day? I did not think it had snowed enough on Wednesday to do that. It didnt lol. I had an inch before the day was out yesterday. I could definitely be wrong if thats not how its officially counted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Quick burst of moderate-heavy snow, 27, NW wind @ 11mph Nice. Abit nipply out there. 26.1/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 It didnt lol. I had an inch before the day was out yesterday. I could definitely be wrong if thats not how its officially counted Personally, I wouldn't count it, but I'm not aware of what the official way to record one is. I ended up with the same over here btw. 5" for the month. Not bad at all for those that care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Personally, I wouldn't count it, but I'm not aware of what the official way to record one is. I ended up with the same over here btw. 5" for the month. Not bad at all for those that care. Won't hear me complain. 4-5x normal November climo. 3 measurable snow events. Still November after all. Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Good to see snow still OTG despite sun and fluffy nature of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Good to see snow still OTG despite sun and fluffy nature of snow. Only shaded areas around here have any snow left and that's already fleeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Only shaded areas around here have any snow left and that's already fleeting. Yeah spots that stayed in the sun for hours melted, but woods etc all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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