REDMK6GLI Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It's amazing how quiet it got in here after last nights runs....... Was it just me or were the Euro Ensembles better for us than the operational run?? First time I've seen that (not that I have been actively looking). This isnt old news with an el nino winter. Typically december is a sub par month in both snow and cold performance out of DJF. Still it gets lost on deaf ears, EURO ensembles didnt look too bad at all last night, marked improvements in the LR for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It's amazing how quiet it got in here after last nights runs....... Was it just me or were the Euro Ensembles better for us than the operational run?? First time I've seen that (not that I have been actively looking). The ensembles def looked better than the op for next week. I think we'd want that leading wave to be weak because the baroclonic zone needs to stay close to shore for the next shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 All three major ensembles at the very least have a signal which usually is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Would a weaker system actually benefit folks on the coastal plain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 wouldn't it also be good to continue to see the first system trend warmer and further northwest ? could that possibly mean a further west amplification of the following wave as the northern stream digs and the pattern becomes more amplified with less of a progressive flow. I'm not willing to rule this one out but the difference between the GFS and the Euro is massive at this time and someone is going to have to give up some serious ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yes a weaker initial system would benefit the coastal plain in regards to the next system which is the digging northern stream shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I would want a stronger system no matter where you are. You obviously don't want it tracking over ACK or CHH if you are on the CP but a potent system riding up or just outside 70w would be good. If the high is north of Maine there will be a good cold feed. But at this point, we need to worry more about there being a storm in the first place vs specific track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The so called gradient pattern hasn't been very favorable unless you are in central and northern Maine. Cold highs crest north of us, but it times out each time so they evacuate east just in time to not hold in enough cold in the mid and upper levels. I wasn't all that thrilled with my 90% PL and FZRA event Tuesday night and then a cold raw high of 38. The situation next week looked to have a high holding north. What a sh itty weekend incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The so called gradient pattern hasn't been very favorable unless you are in central and northern Maine. Cold highs crest north of us, but it times out each time so they evacuate east just in time to not hold in enough cold in the mid and upper levels. I wasn't all that thrilled with my 90% PL and FZRA event Tuesday night and then a cold raw high of 38. The situation next week looked to have a high holding north. Yea Jeff and Tamarack may be the Ok as well as the Maine Ski Areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yea Jeff and Tamarack may be the Ok as well as the Maine Ski Areas. Are you guys talking about the extended range? Nobody looks good in that pattern. There aren't the colder Quebec highs like we see in the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Are you guys talking about the extended range? Nobody looks good in that pattern. There aren't the colder Quebec highs like we see in the next 7 days. The so called gradient pattern hasn't been very favorable unless you are in central and northern Maine. Cold highs crest north of us, but it times out each time so they evacuate east just in time to not hold in enough cold in the mid and upper levels. I wasn't all that thrilled with my 90% PL and FZRA event Tuesday night and then a cold raw high of 38. The situation next week looked to have a high holding north. They are talking next week, Long range is not as favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Are you guys talking about the extended range? Nobody looks good in that pattern. There aren't the colder Quebec highs like we see in the next 7 days. No we are talking this weekend and the beginning of next week, the NAM actually is showing pretty good ice now in Greenfield Chris's hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yeah when Canada is a furnace, I hesitate to call it a gradient pattern. Gradient patterns have a pool of arctic air in Canada near Hudson Bay and into the Canadian prairies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Seems like members of the EC have a storm, but timing is off? At least best I can tell. It's just a weird setup to almost develop and tug a low NW towards the coastline of SNE. I can see why models do this, but certainly not your textbook setup..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yeah when Canada is a furnace, I hesitate to call it a gradient pattern. Gradient patterns have a pool of arctic air in Canada near Hudson Bay and into the Canadian prairies. Your hyperbole furnace is still below freezing for 85% of Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Saturday over running looks a lot like the system we had move thru here yesterday with snow, sleet, freezing rain and possibly over to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Your hyperbole furnace is still below freezing for 85% of Canada So? It's a furnace by their standards. Moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It will be a furnace, but isn't yet. I was just talking about this week up until the cold evacuates Canada after the middle of next week. So? It's a furnace by their standards. Moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Saturday over running looks a lot like the system we had move thru here yesterday with snow, sleet, freezing rain and possibly over to rain Nam really torches as it evolves, sucky setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Nam really torches as it evolves, sucky setup Improvement over 06z but that's not saying much, Looked to scour the cold out to quickly though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 *if* you take the euro ensembles as correct...they pretty much match the euro weeklies which had a bad look weeks 2 and 3 but an improved look by week 4, the ensembles at the very very end of the run show some signs of that. if you extrapoloate them (lol at extrapolating a 15 day prog), a couple of days past that point things would start to get better (assuming it isn't a reload). there's a decent height rise in the E pacific / northwest NA , so minimally downstream heights would start to fall and we could tug some of the arctic / polar air back down into canada. but still the core the good stuff is on the opposite side. maybe we'd be looking at xmas-ish to get back into something that's more sustained? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 *if* you take the euro ensembles as correct...they pretty much match the euro weeklies which had a bad look weeks 2 and 3 but an improved look by week 4, the ensembles at the very very end of the run show some signs of that. if you extrapoloate them (lol at extrapolating a 15 day prog), a couple of days past that point things would start to get better (assuming it isn't a reload). there's a decent height rise in the E pacific / northwest NA , so minimally downstream heights would start to fall and we could tug some of the arctic / polar air back down into canada. but still the core the good stuff is on the opposite side. maybe we'd be looking at xmas-ish to get back into something that's more sustained? Yeah the EPO starts to turn neutral and that's the "light at the end of the tunnel" I referred to earlier. Of course It's December and many areas can pull snow in a lousy pattern..but Christmas time give or take is my guess for a more winter-like pattern. But, that's just an educated guess. My issue is that I would like to see heights rise in the Davis Straits. This +NAO really sucks.It seems like the index will start to decrease after mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It will be a furnace, but isn't yet. I was just talking about this week up until the cold evacuates Canada after the middle of next week. I thought you were pretty clear about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yeah the EPO starts to turn neutral and that's the "light at the end of the tunnel" I referred to earlier. Of course It's December and many areas can pull snow in a lousy pattern..but Christmas time give or take is my guess for a more winter-like pattern. But, that's just an educated guess. My issue is that I would like to see heights rise in the Davis Straits. This +NAO really sucks.It seems like the index will start to decrease after mid month. yeah agree there...the weakening + EPO won't make it work alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I recall you guys were in a really crappy pattern in 2012 until just before Xmas...I can imagine lots of weenies were panicking that year. I was lucky enough to be in cold and snowy Europe that month. So anyway, the moral is that it is early and no point in wasting a disproportionate amount of time grasping for the pattern change. Lots of family activities etc. to take precedent during the holidays. Better times will probably arrive later in the month. In 2012 there was a very east based - NAO which was keeping Europe so cold, but it sucked in North America most of the month as I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 No we are talking this weekend and the beginning of next week, the NAM actually is showing pretty good ice now in Greenfield Chris's hood. ??? NAM looks warm...maybe a couple tenths of ice on just the east side of the spine of the Berks, but that's about it. Maybe a brief glaze elsewhere in the interior before rain. At any rate, I'm not impressed with that system...it's kind of ugly for NNE too...though I'm hoping at least areas like Sunday River can hang onto a good period of snow with their CAD location. The best chance is definitely next week if we can get a good storm to push north into that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 BTV still thinking advisory event for Saturday, looks marginal but I think we'll get a good period of snow to start. "Total quantitative precipitation forecast ranges from 0.2 - 0.6" heaviest across central and southern Vermont though again...not all of that will fall as frozen precipitation. Snow amounts range from a dusting to 2" for the Champlain Valley, Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley to 2-4" for the northern greens and Northeast Kingdom. Could see up to a tenth of an inch of ice accretion in lower southern Vermont and into the Adirondacks. Still some time for more details to evolve but it has the look of an advisory event on present indications." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 GFS still looks like a big zero on any decent storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 GFS still looks like a big zero on any decent storm next week. At least it's back to the idea of having some sort of low instead of high pressure. For our practical purposes though, zero for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 GFS still looks like a big zero on any decent storm next week. It was better then the 06z run has the low still OTS but a little further NW this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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