December-winter is finally here!

[weathafella]

This is why we say not to fall in love with d5-6 runs.

Also, the ens are still ugly. My new pellet stove won't get much of a workout for the next few weeks.

I thought the hints of change were there in the11-15....trying.

[dendrite]

I thought the hints of change were there in the11-15....trying.

Doesn't look a whole lot different from 12z to me. I think the problem is that the cold in Canada gets flushed. We're going to need to build the cold back up in the source region when it becomes favorable again.

If these shot in the dark systems don't pan out I expect the weenie meltdowns to grow in earnest. At least this is happening in early Dec and we're not punting Jan.

[CoastalWx]

Doesn't look a whole lot different from 12z to me. I think the problem is that the cold in Canada gets flushed. We're going to need to build the cold back up in the source region when it becomes favorable again.

If these shot in the dark systems don't pan out I expect the weenie meltdowns to grow in earnest. At least this is happening in early Dec and we're not punting Jan.

Nah, only positive vibes.

[CoastalWx]

I suppose that 2nd thing at hr 144 is something to maybe keep en eye on, but the whole solution is bizarre enough to question it. The Canadian, GEFS (although weak signal) and EC ensembles have something. It's still in fantasy land, which is where you should be, if you believe in it at this stage.

 

And boy is the long range beyond putrid. We'll be easily done until Christmas. You aren't improving that rusty coat hanger anytime soon.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Everyone please go to HM's Twitter feed for a dose of optimism.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ends up giving pretty much everyone (Everywhere aside from the cape basically) a light snow event, (closer to moderate from BOS up onto the ME coastline) Monday night into Tuesday, but the meat of the low remains offshore.

LOL I was saying last light.... of course it correctly latched on to amplitude like a pit bull last week, and was right when it flipped the large majority of the she populous; however now that that amplitude is needed, it would abandon the amplification like red-headed foster child.

[weathafella]

I suppose that 2nd thing at hr 144 is something to maybe keep en eye on, but the whole solution is bizarre enough to question it. The Canadian, GEFS (although weak signal) and EC ensembles have something. It's still in fantasy land, which is where you should be, if you believe in it at this stage.

 

And boy is the long range beyond putrid. We'll be easily done until Christmas. You aren't improving that rusty coat hanger anytime soon.

Hopefully by the 12/22 gtg a new pattern will be at least in the guidance inside of 2 weeks.

[TalcottWx]

I never got invested in the least.

This pattern blows.

Seasons in seasons........suck in suck.

When a patterns sucks, the end result for any given system will likely......suck.

 

Hey, i'm fine with it, like I said, get this out of the way now.

Hell yeah, I'll take this on December 4th. I'd be tying the noose if it was January 4th or February 4th. 

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully by the 12/22 gtg a new pattern will be at least in the guidance inside of 2 weeks.

 

Yeah I don't see a big concern for the rest of the winter.The period from 12/20-12/31 can still offer something. Looks like another push to displace the strat vortex coming up as well.

[CoastalWx]

Link?

 

It's nothing new, basically a more -AO/NAO in Jan.

[MJO812]

It's nothing new, basically a more -AO/NAO in Jan.

Which was said by many on this forum. Every winter outlook that I have seen had this warmth in December.

[TalcottWx]

Don Sutherland seems upbeat.

 

Dec 2 

 

 

Much of January and February, unlike December, featured blocking (AO-). I suspect the coming winter will feature a lot of cold once the blocking commences and I still believe odds strongly favor a blocky winter.

Morning thoughts... Both the GFS ensembles and ECMWF ensembles are in very strong agreement with the evolution of the 500 mb pattern over the next 10 days. The pattern that is forecast to evolve will prove discouraging to those looking forward to winter's cold and snow. Within 6-8 days, both sets of guidance scour the cold from virtually all of Canada. Instead, much above normal readings build eastward from western Canada. By Day 10, almost all of North America is bathed in above normal anomalies. Nevertheless, temptations to write winter's obituary should be held off. If one finds the siren songs of winter's premature demise too tempting to resist, one should probably focus more on the coming joy of Hanukkah and Christmas (sentiments that should always be close at hand regardless of the variability in the weather). Almost certainly, winter will return. The Snow Advance Index (SAI), October Pattern Index, and winters following  a summer AO < 0/October AO of -0.5 or below, typically feature a lot of blocking. If one looks at the latest run of the GFS ensembles, even as there is enormous spread when it comes to the AO forecast, one finds more members than not hinting at a negative NAO toward mid-month. With the exception of a single Grinch among the members, the other positive members are also falling toward negative values. Second, with prospects for a moderate El Niño increasing (the latest ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has crept up to +1.0°C), it can be noted that the 1965-66 winter, which featured a moderate to borderline strong El Niño and the development of persistent blocking at the beginning of January (with a brief episode just before mid-December) provides a case example of the role blocking can play. The development of blocking dramatically transformed what had started as a very mild winter into a cold one. Both January and February were cold across much of North America. Some maps follow. The important themes to take away are:

 

 

1. A blocky winter still appears very likely.

2. The development of blocking will likely bring about sustained cold and opportunities for snowfall. A "non-Winter" similar to 1997-98, which featured blocking coupled with a super El Niño does not appear  likely, as the evolving El Niño is not likely to reach anything close to the magnitude of that ENSO even For now, patience and perhaps strong nerves are required as a warmer pattern begins to descend on much of North America in coming days.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

The good news is that it seems like the light is visible at the end of the tunnel. The vortex starts to retro back to Bering Sea and NE Russia. It's not the best position, but it will ease the Pacfic death jet into NAMR. This will slowly allow the EPO to turn more neutral.

[CoastalWx]

Losing the first half has been a foregone conclusion for awhile. If you get 80 inches in January and February you'll be doing AIT's from here to kingdom come.

 

I think people expect a winter from 1720 based on the Siberian snowpack, but it isn't a linear correlation all the time. The correlation is more Jan-Mar anyways...December seems to be the bonus month at times. This will be a good test. Even a weak -AO would be a big fail. I do think it flips in Jan. The Pacific flips first and then the idea is the Atlantic side follows.

[CoastalWx]

In any case, hopefully the GFS comes around today and the euro doesn't lose next week. The whole evolution is strange so I wouldn't get giddy over anything significant.

[CoastalWx]

Scooter just told you we're done thru Christmas. the chances of snow OTG for any of us..even Dendrite this year. are very very slim..and close to none

 

I meant a winter-like pattern. Of course somehow you guys can pull a snow event out of your behind. But, look at the pattern and do the math....these don't break down easily.

[ORH_wxman]

At any rate, after reading through the meltdowns...Euro def trended less impressive for monday/Tuesday....Ensembles actually look a little better than the OP.

[REDMK6GLI]

Maybe the pattern reloads for white christmas? Seems this would be a pattern to do it since its in the forecast for winter to make a return. Some are getting hung on just punting december in its totality. El Nino winter's i guess arent known by some.....

[Go Kart Mozart]

Link?

@antmasiello

[Brian5671]

At any rate, after reading through the meltdowns...Euro def trended less impressive for monday/Tuesday....Ensembles actually look a little better than the OP.

no surprise, that was a crazy setup

[Ginx snewx]

At any rate, after reading through the meltdowns...Euro def trended less impressive for monday/Tuesday....Ensembles actually look a little better than the OP.

I didn't understand the posts this morning and why would any one melt down if temps are overall normal here for the next two weeks?

[Ginx snewx]

I didn't see anyone melt down. Just expressing worry. Hopefully next week delivers a region wide event before the record warmth

there lies the fallacy,nothing but nothing indicates record warmth in NE. Peeps act like we are living in ND or Alberta.

[Damage In Tolland]

there lies the fallacy,nothing but nothing indicates record warmth in NE. Peeps act like we are living in ND or Alberta.

If you extrapolate the Euro..big big warmth gets in here after day 10. May not happen...but it would if that pattern it depicts shows up

[Brian5671]

I didn't understand the posts this morning and why would any one melt down if temps are overall normal here for the next two weeks?

why would anyone melt down?  No snow, that's why.  If the goods were delivered, then folks would be happy.   Cold for a week with no snow then a torch ain't going to please anyone.

[ORH_wxman]

The way I see, if you are expecting the 12z Euro from yesterday, then you need to take a break from this hobby, lol...that run gave like 20 inches of snow to a chunk of the area.

 

But on the flip side, a less impressive solution doesn't mean the storm won't happen either...c'mon guys, we're supposed to be out of the preseason. 5 day model swings happen.

 

 

As for the warmup, it definitely looks likely after about 12/12-12/13....but with any luck, it will mostly be done before Christmas and we can at least get some modified polar air back in here for more threats. At least at the end of the Euro ens run last night, we're losing the +EPO...so if that trend continues, then we'll see the colder air start showing up again.

[Ginx snewx]

The way I see, if you are expecting the 12z Euro from yesterday, then you need to take a break from this hobby, lol...that run gave like 20 inches of snow to a chunk of the area.

 

But on the flip side, a less impressive solution doesn't mean the storm won't happen either...c'mon guys, we're supposed to be out of the preseason. 5 day model swings happen.

 

 

As for the warmup, it definitely looks likely after about 12/12-12/13....but with any luck, it will mostly be done before Christmas and we can at least get some modified polar air back in here for more threats. At least at the end of the Euro ens run last night, we're losing the +EPO...so if that trend continues, then we'll see the colder air start showing up again.

I found the GEFS EPS and CANENS clusters most interesting this morning, certainly not writing off anything for next week.

[REDMK6GLI]

The way I see, if you are expecting the 12z Euro from yesterday, then you need to take a break from this hobby, lol...that run gave like 20 inches of snow to a chunk of the area.

But on the flip side, a less impressive solution doesn't mean the storm won't happen either...c'mon guys, we're supposed to be out of the preseason. 5 day model swings happen.

As for the warmup, it definitely looks likely after about 12/12-12/13....but with any luck, it will mostly be done before Christmas and we can at least get some modified polar air back in here for more threats. At least at the end of the Euro ens run last night, we're losing the +EPO...so if that trend continues, then we'll see the colder air start showing up again.

Agreed EURO ens. Looked much improved from what they were originally showing thats for sure. Im looking forward to seeing what the typhoon in the pacific will do the pattern regarding the CONUS. if it doesnt recurve i wonder how many positive impacts it will have for us if any in comparison to a recurved typhoon like we saw in november

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That period after about the 10th or so? Looks putrid. Thats about as bad a look as you can get. Its virtually relatively warm everywhere.

Thankfully, its probably not going to last for an extended period. Does it last through Christmas or the end of the month is the question.

Hopefully we can be done with it by Christmas and move on to much better times

[Chrisrotary12]

It's amazing how quiet it got in here after last nights runs.......

 

Was it just me or were the Euro Ensembles better for us than the operational run??  First time I've seen that (not that I have been actively looking).

[Ginx snewx]

What a sh itty weekend incoming.