weathafella Posted December 4, 2014 Author Share Posted December 4, 2014 On 12/4/2014 at 2:52 AM, dryslot said: Agreed, But i like that it has at least peaked your interest Piqued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 On 12/4/2014 at 2:53 AM, weathafella said: Piqued. lol, A few drinks in but you got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I know the NAM is frowned upon in this establishment in the long range, but it is useful to lean us in the way of the foreign models or the GFS model, in terms of which one is closer to reality. Honestly the GFS is alone in its more progressive northern stream disturbance and in which keeps it from diving southward across the Midwest US. What this means is I don't know quite yet, but it could lean the envelope towards a more amplified flow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I'm in Taipei Sunday so not sure if o want a recurve or not Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2014 Author Share Posted December 4, 2014 On 12/4/2014 at 3:22 AM, jamesnichols89 said: I know the NAM is frowned upon in this establishment in the long range, but it is useful to lean us in the way of the foreign models or the GFS model, in terms of which one is closer to reality. Honestly the GFS is alone in its more progressive northern stream disturbance and in which keeps it from diving southward across the Midwest US. What this means is I don't know quite yet, but it could lean the envelope towards a more amplified flow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 GFS wants nothing to do with next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 GFS is looking like the NAM more at hour 78. However this could change drastically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2014 Author Share Posted December 4, 2014 On 12/4/2014 at 4:04 AM, jamesnichols89 said: GFS is looking like the NAM more at hour 78. However this could change drastically It's a miss James, we are seeing it to hour 117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Still got time for the GFS to come through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 On 12/4/2014 at 4:05 AM, weathafella said: It's a miss James, we are seeing it to hour 117 Yeah I just refreshed the image, oh well, maybe the GFS will come around, maybe not, if the foreign models still show a storm I will be more confident, but even if they don't not end of the world, its early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2014 Author Share Posted December 4, 2014 Well if the euro still holds this run after run we'll have to see if gfs waits to the final 3 days to show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2014 Author Share Posted December 4, 2014 Also, the new gfs is off line whch is a pain since we'd see how it would do vs the old model. I think it replaces the old gfs next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 On 12/4/2014 at 4:07 AM, weathafella said: Well if the euro still holds this run after run we'll have to see if gfs waits to the final 3 days to show it. You would think it would shows signs, but a little discouraging it looks even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yeah that will be a fun time with the new GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yeah, that is not even close on the GFS...that is the flattest solution it has shown yet. I'm not staying up for the Euro, but if it basically holds onto the more dynamic look, then nothing really changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Even the long range NAM model is at odds with the GFS, tells you one of them is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2014 Author Share Posted December 4, 2014 I'm packing it in. Plenty of time to wait up but tonight's not the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 0z GFS not at all interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 On 12/4/2014 at 4:13 AM, dryslot said: 0z GFS not at all interested Ugh, its warmer for Saturday too. It was looking marginal but that's certainly more of a rain or sleet type event now...it was looking like a possible advisory level snow earlier. If there is one thing, I don't know if its related to El Nino or not, but these events have been bumping a little warmer and wetter as we get close to hour zero. Definitely a trend to watch this season so far. Saturday is actually now a sneaky high QPF event with 0.5-1.25" across New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Eh, I wouldn't sweat the op run if the other guidance looks ok later on...just thought it would show some life. Not this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Gfs has not been good on the last few events so this should come as no shock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yeah...sometimes it doesn't come around until the last 48 hours. LOL On 12/4/2014 at 4:06 AM, jamesnichols89 said: Still got time for the GFS to come through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 GGEM still has the storm, but its a bizarre evolution...even more bizarre than 12z. It is delayed about 24 hours too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 But we always caveat that with :"sometimes the blind squirrel does find the nut". Probably need to see the Euro hold its solution to about the H96 time frame.... It isn't yet past it's invulnerable point. On 12/4/2014 at 4:43 AM, Logan11 said: Yeah...sometimes it doesn't come around until the last 48 hours. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 On 12/4/2014 at 4:46 AM, ORH_wxman said: GGEM still has the storm, but its a bizarre evolution...even more bizarre than 12z. It is delayed about 24 hours too. 972mb near the benchmark at 153 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Nothing of note through hour 120 on the 0z EURO, storm is weaker and further east. Considering I can barely keep my eyes open, probably won't make it to the second event to see if there's anything interesting there, someone else will have to fill in for that now or in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Ends up giving pretty much everyone (Everywhere aside from the cape basically) a light snow event, (closer to moderate from BOS up onto the ME coastline) Monday night into Tuesday, but the meat of the low remains offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Disgusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2014 Author Share Posted December 4, 2014 11-15 starting to look better. GEFS better but even euro ens snowing signs of change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 This is why we say not to fall in love with d5-6 runs. Also, the ens are still ugly. My new pellet stove won't get much of a workout for the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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