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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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Seeing a lot of blanket statements about the GFS being clueless and not hearing a lot of substantive reasons why that is so...

 

How about:  Because of the operational, Global numerical guidance types, it tends to be the most progressive at middle latitudes ..almost at bias. Or, how about:  Because looking at both the CDC and CPC with a staggering PNA phase reversal from negative into positive, doesn't really support "stretching" the mass fields longitudinally like like the operational GFS.  

 

I could use both those, and they would be hard to dispute in a debate.  

 

That said... as how ever progressively biased the operational GFS is, the CMC/Euro are equally in the other direction in their respective medium ranges.  Rarely do the CMC and Euro show similar details ... but they do both tend to over dig troughs and raise western N/A heights a bit too much beyond D4/5.

 

Usually what ends up happening is something down the middle... So, no, I don't think the GFS is "clueless".  Nor do I think a 100 hour snow event (or whatever in the hell the Euor's sellin') is very likely.  The Euro and CMC might ease off on that in future guidance, just as much as the GFS will likely correct to more digging into the OV. 

 

One aspect that is interesting here is that this is a classic Archembault event. That kind of PNA rise, with that much agreement and boom.  Could not fit better with her statistical science on matters.  What I do find, however, to be somewhat distracting is that more contours of the westerlies are not involved.  That type of massive PNA shift should really see a deeper layer NW flow into the N-Tier states... But what we have is a kind of lolligagging effort to establish the +PNAP.  Really not more than a contour or two, and as a result, the more typically N-S models (the CMC/Euro) cut things off.  

 

From where I am sitting, the first of the two lows on the CMC and Euro seem suspect to me.  It seems to be based more upon inherent numerical instability for having polar High near ME, drilling modified polar E, westward toward the Coast. That's very baroclinic when that sets up, such that any minor perturbation passing near-by is likely to over-develop stuff.  

 

I suppose it is not impossible for events to transpire where a lead low anchors and waits for the better dynamically support one to take over ... meanwhile, snowing for days in the elevations if not lower... But I wouldn't be surprised if the lead lows is false and perhaps a "main player" evolves closer to the crown of the rising PNA. 

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Seeing a lot of blanket statements about the GFS being clueless and not hearing a lot of substantive reasons why that is so...

 

How about:  Because of the operational, Global numerical guidance types, it tends to be the most progressive at middle latitudes ..almost at bias. Or, how about:  Because looking at both the CDC and CPC with a staggering PNA phase reversal from negative into positive, doesn't really support "stretching" the mass fields longitudinally like like the operational GFS.  

 

I could use both those, and they would be hard to dispute in a debate.  

 

That said... as how ever progressively biased the operational GFS is, the CMC/Euro are equally in the other direction in their respective medium ranges.  Rarely do the CMC and Euro show similar details ... but they do both tend to over dig troughs and am western N/A heights a bit too much beyond D4/5.

 

Usually what ends up happening is something down the middle... So, no, I don't think the GFS is "clueless".  Nor do I think a 100 hour snow event (or whatever in the hell the Euor's sellin') is very likely.  The Euro and CMC might ease off on that in future guidance, just as much as the GFS will likely correct to more digging into the OV. 

 

One aspect that is interesting here is that this is a classic Archembault event. That kind of PNA rise, with that much agreement and boom.  Could not fit better with her statistical science on matters.  What I do find, however, to be somewhat distracting is that more contours of the westerlies are not involved.  That type of massive PNA shift should really see a deeper layer NW flow into the N-Tier states... But what we have is a kind of lolligagging effort to establish the +PNAP.  Really not more than a contour or two, and as a result, the more typically N-S models (the CMC/Euro) cut things off.  

 

From where I am sitting, the first of the two lows on the CMC and Euro seem suspect to me.  It seems to be based more upon inherent numerical instability for having polar High near ME, drilling modified polar E, westward toward the Coast. That's very baroclinic when that sets up, such that any minor perturbation passing near-by is likely to over-develop stuff.  

 

I suppose it is not impossible for events to transpire where a lead low anchors and waits for the better dynamically support one to take over ... meanwhile, snowing for days in the elevations if not lower... But I wouldn't be surprised if the lead lows is false and perhaps a "main player" evolves closer to the crown of the rising PNA.

Can you link up the folks who said it was clueless? I haven't seen any of our members allude to that.

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Can you link up the folks who said it was clueless? I haven't seen any of our members allude to that.

 

Well "DT" and who ever that James Nick' is...

 

It's just a precautionary not to 86 any solution at this type of time range, and then adding some reasons why. 

 

I am also gaining interest in the timing of a relatively potent MJO wave scheduled to arrive in the 6-7-8 wave spaces; particularly when a major typhoon in the west Pacific is modeled to pull up and out and join the westerlies right out there in that time, WHEN ... duh duh dunnn, the PNA is rising like a desperate inmate at a nudie convention...  

 

Could be something really special for mid month that may not be anywhere near a modeled complexion right at the moment.  Let's watch for emergent changes...

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Yeah weathafella, the GFS is clueless, I think the pattern is much more amplified then the GFS shows and is capable of at this point in time, its progressive nature is showing its ugly head in the medium range more often than not.

 

Can you link up the folks who said it was clueless? I haven't seen any of our members allude to that.

 
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BTW, the typhoon is not recurving, but it is adding fuel to the jet. Take a look at these images. Now I know these aren't intuitive, but those vectors are basically ageostrophic flow  helping the latent heat release pump up the jet. You can see how the jet is pumped up NE of the Typhoon at hr 102. Now since the gyre near AK is strong, we probably will not see a classic wave breaking event to dump cold into the US. Note I say probably. It's not a certainty.

 

 

 

post-33-0-22047100-1417649750_thumb.png

 

 

 

post-33-0-03158200-1417649764_thumb.png

 

 

 

post-33-0-61230300-1417649773_thumb.png

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Congrats. :)

 

What's the best free site to see the EC on?  I use e-wall out of habit, but I suspect there may be better maps out there.

 

OT--something has really kept the cooler air locked in here.  I see a couple sites in southern VT and SNH with temps in the 31-33 range, but I'm the only one on the pdfamily site that is.  Sitting at 32.3/32.  I think it's legit based on the ice that's still covering the deck/grill/wood/wood and much of the lawn in spite of sporadic rain. 

 

35/34 here. Peaked at 37F today. 

I think in terms of sensible Wx the W of Gardner (including HubbDave)  N of Rt 2 folks should, in the winter, be more appropriately  categorized as CNE rather than SNE. That's just my opinion based on what I've experienced over the past 7 years living out here and really only applies to Winter Wx.  This certainly seems to be the case for those of us W of the River and N of Rt 2. 

Today driving from E. MA back to Greenfield the difference in snow cover and temperature was glaringly obvious once I was W of Orange and anywhere more than 5mi from the Ct River.

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35/34 here. Peaked at 37F today. 

I think in terms of sensible Wx the W of Gardner (including HubbDave)  N of Rt 2 folks should, in the winter, be more appropriately  categorized as CNE rather than SNE. That's just my opinion based on what I've experienced over the past 7 years living out here and really only applies to Winter Wx.  This certainly seems to be the case for those of us W of the River and N of Rt 2. 

Today driving from E. MA back to Greenfield the difference in snow cover and temperature was glaringly obvious once I was W of Orange and anywhere more than 5mi from the Ct River.

 

 

See, now I've always thought of the N CT River valley as a relative snowhole being in N ORH at 900+ feet....but then a sharp rise in snow cover both east and west of the river valley. The Orange/Athol area is hit or miss...sometimes they do as well as N ORH county and the E Slope of Berks and other times I lump them in with the valley sensible wx. It usually depends on the setup.

 

I've seen it both ways around Greenfield too...regimes like the past 10 days are good there...when more elevation is involved or an upslope/downslope type event (ala Dec '92 or similar), then they are much more akin to the southern valley.

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That N CT River area does CAD pretty dam well at least.

 

 

Yeah I've found they really excel in latitude events and the shallow CAD events...when it's a deeper CAD (like up to about 925mb), usually it's the Berks and ORH hills that tend to get it (think Dec '08 ice storm where the ice line was much lower in elevation to the east than out that way).

 

Any storms with deep layer E/NE flow though, then it's a tough ride off the Monads there.

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Yeah I've found they really excel in latitude events and the shallow CAD events...when it's a deeper CAD (like up to about 925mb), usually it's the Berks and ORH hills that tend to get it (think Dec '08 ice storm where the ice line was much lower in elevation to the east than out that way).

 

Any storms with deep layer E/NE flow though, then it's a tough ride off the Monads there.

 

Oh yeah it's definitely more those shallow scenarios like in lake cutters...etc. But they do pretty well retaining snowpack anyways. Then again, it doesn't take much to impress me given my locale. :lol:

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See, now I've always thought of the N CT River valley as a relative snowhole being in N ORH at 900+ feet....but then a sharp rise in snow cover both east and west of the river valley. The Orange/Athol area is hit or miss...sometimes they do as well as N ORH county and the E Slope of Berks and other times I lump them in with the valley sensible wx. It usually depends on the setup.

I've seen it both ways around Greenfield too...regimes like the past 10 days are good there...when more elevation is involved or an upslope/downslope type event (ala Dec '92 or similar), then they are much more akin to the southern valley.

Yes, absolutely right on the elevation dependent events. The past few winters have been good to the Greenfield to Brattleboro corridor wrt to latitude dependent events and CAD. We love us some swfe too.

I've been amazed at how well Greenfield can dam but it can be very micro-climate dependent. My el. is meager but being in a secondary valley (Green River) brings amazing snow retention. Sometimes to the point of feeling like people are skeptical of photos I put up.

I would still like to live at a higher el. out here though. Lol

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Yes, absolutely right on the elevation dependent events. The past few winters have been good to the Greenfield to Brattleboro corridor wrt to latitude dependent events and CAD. We love us some swfe too.

I've been amazed at how well Greenfield can dam but it can be very micro-climate dependent. My el. is meager but being in a secondary valley (Green River) brings amazing snow retention. Sometimes to the point of feeling like people are skeptical of photos I put up.

I would still like to live at a higher el. out here though. Lol

Yeah so true with the micro effects. That secondary valley really helps with CAD.

At any rate, hopefully we have a chance to test more winter micro climates next week. Lol. Better than watching torches on the models.

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Looks to start as a gradient pattern with mild and sometimes chilly days. Reload of Aleutian low should be before 12/15 so things looking great moving forward. Let's get me winter going a week from today!

I've been saying for a week that something big is gonna happen around the middle of the month. All the patterns are aligning and models are starting to pick up on something. GFS had something for around the 14th area days ago, looked crappy, but was there with a Quebec high and a 50/50 low. Now the PNA and NAO are gonna flip around that time. Does this sound correct?
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When alluding to the anticipated warm up, what are we actually talking about 3-5F above normal or 10-15F above normal? The Accuweather 45 day fantasies have raised temps, but except for 2 or 3 days at a time up into the mid 40s (ORH) and minor cool downs into the low to mid 30's, it just seems sort of dull and mild. Someone mentioned 850 temps at 17C in Alberta on one of the models. Was this a joke or is it indicative of a crazy warm pattern?

 

Without access to all the models and with limited interpretive skills I have to rely on smart people's interpretations and explanations.

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The only advantage to the pay sites (worth it to me) is you get a lot more parameters and every 3-6 hours out to 360.

Some decent rain moved through late day today.

The other maps and higher res on weatherbell has actually made learning new meteorology. Ensembles too. Plus the some of the larger maps they have are awesome to use.

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When alluding to the anticipated warm up, what are we actually talking about 3-5F above normal or 10-15F above normal? The Accuweather 45 day fantasies have raised temps, but except for 2 or 3 days at a time up into the mid 40s (ORH) and minor cool downs into the low to mid 30's, it just seems sort of dull and mild. Someone mentioned 850 temps at 17C in Alberta on one of the models. Was this a joke or is it indicative of a crazy warm pattern?

 

Without access to all the models and with limited interpretive skills I have to rely on smart people's interpretations and explanations.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=korh

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014120318/

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/

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Yes, absolutely right on the elevation dependent events. The past few winters have been good to the Greenfield to Brattleboro corridor wrt to latitude dependent events and CAD. We love us some swfe too.

I've been amazed at how well Greenfield can dam but it can be very micro-climate dependent. My el. is meager but being in a secondary valley (Green River) brings amazing snow retention. Sometimes to the point of feeling like people are skeptical of photos I put up.

I would still like to live at a higher el. out here though. Lol

 

No doubting from here wrt to your snow retention.  Your area does really well.

 

Nice to see the flakes flying with the CAA this evening.

 

The graphs here show the steady-state of the day up until the passage of the front and arrival of the new airmass.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMASHELB3#history

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When alluding to the anticipated warm up, what are we actually talking about 3-5F above normal or 10-15F above normal? The Accuweather 45 day fantasies have raised temps, but except for 2 or 3 days at a time up into the mid 40s (ORH) and minor cool downs into the low to mid 30's, it just seems sort of dull and mild. Someone mentioned 850 temps at 17C in Alberta on one of the models. Was this a joke or is it indicative of a crazy warm pattern?

 

Without access to all the models and with limited interpretive skills I have to rely on smart people's interpretations and explanations.

 

Well that is modeled (in fact the Euro even has 17-20C at 850 over SD, but that certainly won't come east at that magnitude.

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Thanks, Ginxy. I think I pretty much get the meteostar info. It pretty much looks like what Accuweather is showing. The loops for the Northeast go only so far ahead, but no big surprises there either. Just looks sort of mild and dull with a couple of chilly breaks.

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