Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The 12z ECMWF and GGEM don't even sniff a curve. Not yet anyway.Give it time Dustin.. Give it time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 GEFS individual members all show the frontal boundary moving through on Saturday followed by below normal temperatures. Questions remain on the degree to which the northern stream disturbance digs southward and phasing opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 lol yeah it's been a good start in NNE...I've had at least 10 days/events worth of accumulating snow so far. LOL take a peek at the Euro weenie snow maps, Mainiacs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 the euro shows a nearly carbon copy of haiyan's track with hagupit Yea that looks ugly for them. is Josh chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Yea that looks ugly for them. is Josh chasing? Gefs recurve it..Nothing set in stone. it's just a matter if it recurves before it hits the PPines or after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 LOL take a peek at the Euro weenie snow maps, Mainiacs Yeah great run of the ECM and Ensembles...maybe a change to snow tonight and up to an inch, then 1-2" Saturday (GFS had more like 2-4" of slop), then fun and games next week. Ensemble mean has like 10"+ of snow for the Greens/Whites/Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 Ensembles look like they are starting to try to improve in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 LOL take a peek at the Euro weenie snow maps, Mainiacs lol, 41.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 We like when synoptic events end with upslope events. "The position and movement of the closed 7h/500 mb circulation off the European model (ecmwf) would support a significant precipitation event across our County Warning Area Monday into Tuesday...along with a prolong period of upslope snow on the backside for Tuesday into Wednesday...for the western slope/northern dacks. The prolonged upslope scenario is supported by the 12z GFS...but initial surface low pressure tracks too far east to advect significant quantitative precipitation forecast back into our County Warning Area. If the 00z or 12z Euro was to verify a heavy wet snow storm would be likely across most of the north country...with a prolonged backside upslope event." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 lol, 41.2" Congrats. What's the best free site to see the EC on? I use e-wall out of habit, but I suspect there may be better maps out there. OT--something has really kept the cooler air locked in here. I see a couple sites in southern VT and SNH with temps in the 31-33 range, but I'm the only one on the pdfamily site that is. Sitting at 32.3/32. I think it's legit based on the ice that's still covering the deck/grill/wood/wood and much of the lawn in spite of sporadic rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Congrats. What's the best free site to see the EC on? I use e-wall out of habit, but I suspect there may be better maps out there. OT--something has really kept the cooler air locked in here. I see a couple sites in southern VT and SNH with temps in the 31-33 range, but I'm the only one on the pdfamily site that is. Sitting at 32.3/32. I think it's legit based on the ice that's still covering the deck/grill/wood/wood and much of the lawn in spite of sporadic rain. All the sites will have the same raw data(Except Wundermaps has some additional parameters, the site is a PITA to use though), but I'm a big fan of meteocentre's graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Just took a look at the EURO ensembles, they are great for this time period, still five days away and three days away from proper northern stream disturbance sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I can't post the individuals because they're from WxBell, but there is a fairly decent chunk of them that have very large(Think 12"+) solutions for the D5-6 event inland. On the coast it's less enthused, but there's still a smaller chunk that go nuts for there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Just took a look at the EURO ensembles, they are great for this time period, still five days away and three days away from proper northern stream disturbance sampling. Cool..where'd you see them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Cool..where'd you see them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Cool..where'd you see them? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=t85p&HH=144&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=72503 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 LOL All the sites will have the same raw data(Except Wundermaps has some additional parameters, the site is a PITA to use though), but I'm a big fan of meteocentre's graphics. Thanks. Agree on Wunderground, I could never get that to load properly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 LOL Thanks. Agree on Wunderground, I could never get that to load properly Not sure on the freebie Euro access sites mike, I subscribe to SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Not sure on the freebie Euro access sites mike, I subscribe to SV www.tropicaltidbits.com has the EURO. Not very many parameters, but visually appealing (and free!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I use Americanwx.com model page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 GFS evolution still looks horrible next week if you like winter wx...the foreign guidance (GGEM/Euro) is really how you'd want it to develop. It's essentially a glorified clipper that tracks NW of us on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 GFS evolution still looks horrible next week if you like winter wx...the foreign guidance (GGEM/Euro) is really how you'd want it to develop. It's essentially a glorified clipper that tracks NW of us on the GFS. Well the good news is DT says the GFS is "fookin clueless" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 GFS evolution still looks horrible next week if you like winter wx...the foreign guidance (GGEM/Euro) is really how you'd want it to develop. It's essentially a glorified clipper that tracks NW of us on the GFS. ULL trys to tug it back but its way to late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 The only advantage to the pay sites (worth it to me) is you get a lot more parameters and every 3-6 hours out to 360. Some decent rain moved through late day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Yeah weathafella, the GFS is clueless, I think the pattern is much more amplified then the GFS shows and is capable of at this point in time, its progressive nature is showing its ugly head in the medium range more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Just a slight difference in the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The only advantage to the pay sites (worth it to me) is you get a lot more parameters and every 3-6 hours out to 360. Some decent rain moved through late day today. Thanks for the recommendations. I think the 3-6 hour intervals are a key feature. 24-hour ones are like watching a time-lapse movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Thanks for the recommendations. I think the 3-6 hour intervals are a key feature. 24-hour ones is like watching a time-lapse movie. Yeah you really can't use the free EURO maps for forecasting purposes. Can be used to get a general idea of what an event looks like, but considering the missing timeframes and lack of info provided you need to either pay up for it or find a source(like here) where you can know what it's got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 GFS evolution still looks horrible next week if you like winter wx...the foreign guidance (GGEM/Euro) is really how you'd want it to develop. It's essentially a glorified clipper that tracks NW of us on the GFS. Yeah that's a non-event on the GFS, haha. Slight differences in impact between the EURO and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 GEFS look better than the op, but still kind of lousy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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