jamesnichols89 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Three days, it will take three more days before we get a handle on the northern stream disturbance and its strength and track. It is still in the GOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I would still say we just make a pact to leave the JMA alone... haha. Just let it be. Should be getting close to inside the DGEX's wheelhouse though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Just don't want a Feb. 2013 warm up which destroyed our blizzard snow in like a day after any snow next week. Anyone think we'd be able to hang onto the snow for at least a week after next with maybe 40's as highs? I do understand though that the D7+ progs for temps on most models have been terrible so far. Hopefully that continues. All kidding and sarcasm aside, I think a nice snow storm in this pattern with a Quebec High would be quite a victory in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I would still say we just make a pact to leave the JMA alone... haha. Just let it be. The model shows a huge hit in every single threat we have at some point leading up to it...so I pay little attention to it. Typically what I look for at this D5-6 range are a couple OP hits and some decent ensemble support...especially from the EC ensembles. So far, we have satisfied both of those criteria, so I'm paying close attention. Really nothing more to be analyzed. Details will just drive you crazy at this stage. edit: I should also mention at this lead time, looking for synoptic precursors is good too...i.e. like a PNA spike (western ridge spike) and a reasonable area of confluence to the north to give us a Quebec high, etc...to give more confidence that a particular threat can be reconciled synoptically, versus a total longshot model fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I agree Will, its the +PNA spike domain that we need to watch carefully in regards to the behavior of the northern stream shortwave which is the catalyst towards a colder and more snowy scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Early December 2003 was herald in by the mother of all snow squalls and arctic blast that set the stage. Ahh thats true, the lead up is not similar...the scenario between dec 4-6th though isn't all that dissimilar though to the euro op... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The model shows a huge hit in every single threat we have at some point leading up to it...so I pay little attention to it. Typically what I look for at this D5-6 range are a couple OP hits and some decent ensemble support...especially from the EC ensembles. So far, we have satisfied both of those criteria, so I'm paying close attention. Really nothing more to be analyzed. Details will just drive you crazy at this stage. That pretty much sums it up. I see no reason why the ECM ens will be any less robust today. At least its something to track, even if they don't work out, its something to do other than looking at the "close-the-shades" week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Ahh thats true, the lead up is not similar...the scenario between dec 4-6th though isn't all that dissimilar though to the euro op... Yeah, I was just adding a few details...namely because I had to alter my plans driving to class...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The PNA spike was modeled and isn't going anywhere, it's the s/w timing and position. The models hinted at this like 4 days ago, but at the time it seemed like a low prob...lower than it normally is at that stage, but I threw it out there as something to talk about. It still doesn't change the ugly ducking ahead of us..but hopefully it works out for some. We are only allowed to talk positively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Wait we are actually discussing 144 model runs, somebody going to be pissed. Looks more and more like the JMA people were pissed we discussed. Should be fun. Yes, ECMWF = GGEM = JMA. Anyway, that's also why Scooter and Will have posted multiple times to warn against taking the EC verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Euro actually drops another cold shot/trough in day 9-10 FTW..Awesomeness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Yeah Scott, I have been mentioning that the +PNA spike is more important to a storm happening than the NAO domain, because the NAO index deals with duration of a storm, it doesn't lead to a storm. A +PNA leads to a downstream trough if a disturbance is strong enough to dive southeastward out of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Euro actually drops another cold shot/trough in day 9-10 FTW..Awesomeness Such a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Hey if I get snow this week, I'll be surprised. It would ease the disaster following it. Which may never come..but let.'s continue focusing on it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Which may never come..but let.'s continue focusing on it lol It's coming. Locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Even JB seems skeptical of the euro right now...I do like it during El Ninos and it did hit this last event but only 3...maybe 4 GFS ensembles at 144 hours support it. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 30m30 minutes agoState College, PA I think the major trough in the east is coming next week and we are colder than normal in the 6-10 NYC. Snow threat is real IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Which may never come..but let.'s continue focusing on it lol There is nothing wrong with mentioning it...you have no problem discussing cold in the long range and locking in the deep freeze from November to April. If you don't want to hear about it, then don't open this thread which is going to have some longer range talk for the month of December. That's plenty fair. If there was no support for an ugly pattern, then there would be more reason to frown upon the talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Such a lock. He is just saying what it shows...never called it a lock. No different that you yelling torch from the roof-top... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 And it also has nothing to do with the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 He is just saying what it shows...never called it a lock. No different that you yelling torch from the roof-top... I never yelled torch. Keep drinking the day 10 Kool-aid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 There is nothing wrong with mentioning it...you have no problem discussing cold in the long range and locking in the deep freeze from November to April. If you don't want to hear about it, then don't open this thread which is going to have some longer range talk for the month of December. That's plenty fair. If there was no support for an ugly pattern, then there would be more reason to frown upon the talk. of course. Like we said.. It's a blog. People are free to discuss whatever they want. I just don't think it should be the main topic or worry when it's iver 10 days out .. If it even happens.. When we have a couple major winter storm threats in front of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 of course. Like we said.. It's a blog. People are free to discuss whatever they want. I just don't think it should be the main topic or worry when it's iver 10 days out .. If it even happens.. When we have a couple major winter storm threats in front of us Storm threats were mentioned earlier as CNE and NNE events, which are still favored. Only the euro op and Canadian op really show anything of significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Storm threats were mentioned earlier as CNE and NNE events, which are still favored. Only the euro op and Canadian op really show anything of significance.again you may discuss whatever you want and post Disgusting, chinook , dog crap etc... For me personally I'm excited about the possibility of snow or ice Friday night and again next week. And of immediate concern is my Christmas tree.. Which just fell over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The GFS has minor interest at this time but after last weeks performance that's not saying to much at this juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 of course. Like we said.. It's a blog. People are free to discuss whatever they want. I just don't think it should be the main topic or worry when it's iver 10 days out .. If it even happens.. When we have a couple major winter storm threats in front of us This is not a blog btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 again you may discuss whatever you want and post Disgusting, chinook , dog crap etc... For me personally I'm excited about the possibility of snow or ice Friday night and again next week. And of immediate concern is my Christmas tree.. Which just fell over That thing has the lowest center of gravity. Impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 again you may discuss whatever you want and post Disgusting, chinook , dog crap etc... For me personally I'm excited about the possibility of snow or ice Friday night and again next week. And of immediate concern is my Christmas tree.. Which just fell over As am I if the Euro is right, but I don't live in a land of unicorns and butterflies either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Should be getting close to inside the DGEX's wheelhouse though DGEX gets it done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 That thing has the lowest center of gravity. Impossible. Weebles wobble but they wont fall down. Typical December torch... hopefully it will be somewhat muted in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 DGEX gets it done Always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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