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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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Just don't want a Feb. 2013 warm up which destroyed our blizzard snow in like a day after any snow next week. Anyone think we'd be able to hang onto the snow for at least a week after next with maybe 40's as highs?

 

I do understand though that the D7+ progs for temps on most models have been terrible so far. Hopefully that continues.

 

All kidding and sarcasm aside, I think a nice snow storm in this pattern with a Quebec High would be quite a victory in this pattern.

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I would still say we just make a pact to leave the JMA alone... haha.  Just let it be.

 

The model shows a huge hit in every single threat we have at some point leading up to it...so I pay little attention to it.

 

Typically what I look for at this D5-6 range are a couple OP hits and some decent ensemble support...especially from the EC ensembles. So far, we have satisfied both of those criteria, so I'm paying close attention. Really nothing more to be analyzed. Details will just drive you crazy at this stage.

 

edit: I should also mention at this lead time, looking for synoptic precursors is good too...i.e. like a PNA spike (western ridge spike) and a reasonable area of confluence to the north to give us a Quebec high, etc...to give more confidence that a particular threat can be reconciled synoptically, versus a total longshot model fantasy.

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The model shows a huge hit in every single threat we have at some point leading up to it...so I pay little attention to it.

 

Typically what I look for at this D5-6 range are a couple OP hits and some decent ensemble support...especially from the EC ensembles. So far, we have satisfied both of those criteria, so I'm paying close attention. Really nothing more to be analyzed. Details will just drive you crazy at this stage.

 

That pretty much sums it up.  I see no reason why the ECM ens will be any less robust today. 

 

At least its something to track, even if they don't work out, its something to do other than looking at the "close-the-shades" week. 

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The PNA spike was modeled and isn't going anywhere, it's the s/w timing and position. The models hinted at this like 4 days ago, but at the time it seemed like a low prob...lower than it normally is at that stage, but I threw it out there as something to talk about. It still doesn't change the ugly ducking ahead of us..but hopefully it works out for some. We are only allowed to talk positively.

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Wait we are actually discussing 144 model runs, somebody going to be pissed. Looks more and more like the JMA people were pissed we discussed. Should be fun.

 

Yes, ECMWF = GGEM = JMA.

 

Anyway, that's also why Scooter and Will have posted multiple times to warn against taking the EC verbatim.

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Yeah Scott, I have been mentioning that the +PNA spike is more important to a storm happening than the NAO domain, because the NAO index deals with duration of a storm, it doesn't lead to a storm.  A +PNA leads to a downstream trough if a disturbance is strong enough to dive southeastward out of Canada.

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Even JB seems skeptical of the euro right now...I do like it during El Ninos and it did hit this last event but only 3...maybe 4 GFS ensembles at 144 hours support it.

 

I think the major trough in the east is coming next week and we are colder than normal in the 6-10 NYC. Snow threat is real IMO

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Which may never come..but let.'s continue focusing on it lol

 

There is nothing wrong with mentioning it...you have no problem discussing cold in the long range and locking in the deep freeze from November to April.

 

If you don't want to hear about it, then don't open this thread which is going to have some longer range talk for the month of December.

 

That's plenty fair. If there was no support for an ugly pattern, then there would be more reason to frown upon the talk.

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There is nothing wrong with mentioning it...you have no problem discussing cold in the long range and locking in the deep freeze from November to April.

If you don't want to hear about it, then don't open this thread which is going to have some longer range talk for the month of December.

That's plenty fair. If there was no support for an ugly pattern, then there would be more reason to frown upon the talk.

of course. Like we said.. It's a blog. People are free to discuss whatever they want. I just don't think it should be the main topic or worry when it's iver 10 days out .. If it even happens.. When we have a couple major winter storm threats in front of us
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of course. Like we said.. It's a blog. People are free to discuss whatever they want. I just don't think it should be the main topic or worry when it's iver 10 days out .. If it even happens.. When we have a couple major winter storm threats in front of us

 

Storm threats were mentioned earlier as CNE and NNE events, which are still favored. Only the euro op and Canadian op really show anything of significance. 

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Storm threats were mentioned earlier as CNE and NNE events, which are still favored. Only the euro op and Canadian op really show anything of significance.

again you may discuss whatever you want and post Disgusting, chinook , dog crap etc... For me personally I'm excited about the possibility of snow or ice Friday night and again next week. And of immediate concern is my Christmas tree.. Which just fell over
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again you may discuss whatever you want and post Disgusting, chinook , dog crap etc... For me personally I'm excited about the possibility of snow or ice Friday night and again next week. And of immediate concern is my Christmas tree.. Which just fell over

 

That thing has the lowest center of gravity. Impossible.

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again you may discuss whatever you want and post Disgusting, chinook , dog crap etc... For me personally I'm excited about the possibility of snow or ice Friday night and again next week. And of immediate concern is my Christmas tree.. Which just fell over

 

As am I if the Euro is right, but I don't live in a land of unicorns and butterflies either.

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