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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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I'd be interested to see what MJO phase 6-7-8 composites look like for Nino background states only

 

So there is this:

nino_7_dic_low.png

 

Again..when the Phoon recurves..all modeling will change..see how DT laid it out if folks need an explanation as to how things will progress

 

The typhoon will not affect the pattern as you are hoping sir. 

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and to match the BIIIIIIIG weather story from Dr Judah Cohen we have this from WSI ... WOOF..... The N the upper right corner means.....I think... that WSI ran theor model 354 times !!!!! if this is right east coast from NC to maine will be belly high to a tall dog in snow

10801608_783667881680472_827549462399052Here's how things should progress as we head near the holidays

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JC it's a weather forum your carpenter analogy makes zero sense. I am however sure carpenters discuss architectural models some feasible others not. Can you explain in detail what exactly is not feasible about the GGEMS depiction, scientifically speaking.

I'm sorry Steve, I guess I naturally assumed that it was being posted because it was what the model showed, not because someone had an idea of a scientifically possible scenario and happened to come across the GGEM showing the scenario perfectly and decided to use it as an example of one of the literally infinite meteorological possibilities.

I guess that's why you shouldn't assume.

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Phase 5 and 6 MJO with a +ENSO:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seeing those makes me wonder if there is a bit too much filtering now...we are only looking at December and only in +ENSO events in one particular phase...that has to be a pretty short sample size. There really isn't a coherent progression between the 3 maps.

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Wow, that matches the pattern very well...looks nothing like the overall composite.

 

Do you have +ENSO for phase 6?

Here is phase 7 Nina, you can see which composite better reflects onto the full phase 7 composite on RaleighWx's site for sure. Also lines up well with HM's comments concerning EAMT/jet extentions in Nino vs. Nina background

nina_7_dic_mid.png

 

 

Here is phase 6

 

nino_6_dic_low.png

 

Good work Chris.

 

Thx Scott, though I am just the messanger. A few good folks on twitter shared this site with me.

 

http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

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Sometimes I wish we didn't have the ability to have modeling go out so far in time. It just leads to false hopes or bad interpretations or getting pissed off . Focus on what we can have a good handle on which is about 5-7 days

 

Well its fun when a great winter pattern is coming down the pipeline... but not so much fun when looking at a true Nino turd ConUS torch. 

 

But yes, sometimes its better not to know, haha.

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and to match the BIIIIIIIG weather story from Dr Judah Cohen we have this from WSI ... WOOF..... The N the upper right corner means.....I think... that WSI ran theor model 354 times !!!!! if this is right east coast from NC to maine will be belly high to a tall dog in snow

10801608_783667881680472_827549462399052Here's how things should progress as we head near the holidays

 

 

Getting way out there if looking towards the holidays for a pattern change.

 

The one thing I'm not a fan of, is that the mets on this sub-forum usually can find something positive out there of a atmospheric reshuffle.  I know some think they like to make Blizz squirm, but at the same time, I find them pretty honest about stuff, and when the resident experts like ORH, Coastal, Tropo, etc can't necessarily find something out there, it could be a tough couple weeks.  Looks like the close the shades period starts after whatever happens early next week.

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Back to the winter wx threats...it looks like a bit of snow even in SNE on the front end Friday night for the first wave on the 12z Euro. Esp pike north....and its doing something interesting for Saturday night/Sun morning...it hangs back some of the energy and builds in high pressure SE and tries to change things back to frozen...but it gets kind of squashed.

 

Another weird scenario. We'll see what it does with the one next week.

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Great discussion today guys...thanks!

I'm happy to have the speculation. Also if you recall when we went into the cold November pattern it was stable and took 3-4 weeks to break. Patience is a virtue now. We played and now we pay. We'll play again before New Years I bet.

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Back to the winter wx threats...it looks like a bit of snow even in SNE on the front end Friday night for the first wave on the 12z Euro. Esp pike north....and its doing something interesting for Saturday night/Sun morning...it hangs back some of the energy and builds in high pressure SE and tries to change things back to frozen...but it gets kind of squashed.

 

Another weird scenario. We'll see what it does with the one next week.

 

That is a monster high that builds in...lol 1046mb just northwest of FVE.

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