Weathergun Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I think it's because some mets do think it might still recurve lol People need to give up on it typhoon. There's a ridge building over SE Asia. GFS no longer fully recurves as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Sometimes I wish we didn't have the ability to have modeling go out so far in time. It just leads to false hopes or bad interpretations or getting pissed off . Focus on what we can have a good handle on which is about 5-7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Oh my lord, we are looking at surface details on a 144 hour GGEM prog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Oh my lord, we are looking at surface details on a 144 hour GGEM prog?no we are looking at stock market charts you are in the wrong forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Oh my lord, we are looking at surface details on a 144 hour GGEM prog? What else would you like to discuss...the current cloud cover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Oh my lord, we are looking at surface details on a 144 hour GGEM prog? The same as some looking at them on the GFS, Dats what we do, And in about 30 mins we will have seen what the Euro has as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I'd be interested to see what MJO phase 6-7-8 composites look like for Nino background states only So there is this: Again..when the Phoon recurves..all modeling will change..see how DT laid it out if folks need an explanation as to how things will progress The typhoon will not affect the pattern as you are hoping sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 GGEM | 11/27/14 | 12z | 144hr | Valid at 12z 12/3/14 GGEM | 12/3/14 | 12z | 0hr | Valid at 12z 12/3/14 Do you think carpenters waste their free time sitting around trying to hammer a nail with a toothpick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 So there is this: The typhoon will not affect the pattern as you are hoping sir. Wow, that matches the pattern very well...looks nothing like the overall composite. Do you have +ENSO for phase 6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 So there is this: The typhoon will not affect the pattern as you are hoping sir. That's what concerns me. After this KW passes we may see another reemergence of the real MJO at P6, but not until the end of the month. I'm on this pattern remaining stable for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Good work Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 JC it's a weather forum your carpenter analogy makes zero sense. I am however sure carpenters discuss architectural models some feasible others not. Can you explain in detail what exactly is not feasible about the GGEMS depiction, scientifically speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 GFS is slowly coming around to a single coastal low pressure center that deepens rapidly, comparatively towards the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Phase 5 and 6 MJO with a +ENSO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 and to match the BIIIIIIIG weather story from Dr Judah Cohen we have this from WSI ... WOOF..... The N the upper right corner means.....I think... that WSI ran theor model 354 times !!!!! if this is right east coast from NC to maine will be belly high to a tall dog in snow Here's how things should progress as we head near the holidays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 JC it's a weather forum your carpenter analogy makes zero sense. I am however sure carpenters discuss architectural models some feasible others not. Can you explain in detail what exactly is not feasible about the GGEMS depiction, scientifically speaking.I'm sorry Steve, I guess I naturally assumed that it was being posted because it was what the model showed, not because someone had an idea of a scientifically possible scenario and happened to come across the GGEM showing the scenario perfectly and decided to use it as an example of one of the literally infinite meteorological possibilities.I guess that's why you shouldn't assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Phase 5 and 6 MJO with a +ENSO: Seeing those makes me wonder if there is a bit too much filtering now...we are only looking at December and only in +ENSO events in one particular phase...that has to be a pretty short sample size. There really isn't a coherent progression between the 3 maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The only ray of hope on the GFS comes very late in the period, as the gAK vortex fades, at least opening the door for a new shuffle of the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Wow, that matches the pattern very well...looks nothing like the overall composite. Do you have +ENSO for phase 6? Here is phase 7 Nina, you can see which composite better reflects onto the full phase 7 composite on RaleighWx's site for sure. Also lines up well with HM's comments concerning EAMT/jet extentions in Nino vs. Nina background Here is phase 6 Good work Chris. Thx Scott, though I am just the messanger. A few good folks on twitter shared this site with me. http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Sometimes I wish we didn't have the ability to have modeling go out so far in time. It just leads to false hopes or bad interpretations or getting pissed off . Focus on what we can have a good handle on which is about 5-7 days Well its fun when a great winter pattern is coming down the pipeline... but not so much fun when looking at a true Nino turd ConUS torch. But yes, sometimes its better not to know, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Cool site, although I agree with Will that the p5-7 changes are rather drastic. I bet amplitude makes a difference as well , but gives you an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 and to match the BIIIIIIIG weather story from Dr Judah Cohen we have this from WSI ... WOOF..... The N the upper right corner means.....I think... that WSI ran theor model 354 times !!!!! if this is right east coast from NC to maine will be belly high to a tall dog in snow Here's how things should progress as we head near the holidays Getting way out there if looking towards the holidays for a pattern change. The one thing I'm not a fan of, is that the mets on this sub-forum usually can find something positive out there of a atmospheric reshuffle. I know some think they like to make Blizz squirm, but at the same time, I find them pretty honest about stuff, and when the resident experts like ORH, Coastal, Tropo, etc can't necessarily find something out there, it could be a tough couple weeks. Looks like the close the shades period starts after whatever happens early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Back to the winter wx threats...it looks like a bit of snow even in SNE on the front end Friday night for the first wave on the 12z Euro. Esp pike north....and its doing something interesting for Saturday night/Sun morning...it hangs back some of the energy and builds in high pressure SE and tries to change things back to frozen...but it gets kind of squashed. Another weird scenario. We'll see what it does with the one next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 Great discussion today guys...thanks! I'm happy to have the speculation. Also if you recall when we went into the cold November pattern it was stable and took 3-4 weeks to break. Patience is a virtue now. We played and now we pay. We'll play again before New Years I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 12z Euro cooking one up for late monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Back to the winter wx threats...it looks like a bit of snow even in SNE on the front end Friday night for the first wave on the 12z Euro. Esp pike north....and its doing something interesting for Saturday night/Sun morning...it hangs back some of the energy and builds in high pressure SE and tries to change things back to frozen...but it gets kind of squashed. Another weird scenario. We'll see what it does with the one next week. That is a monster high that builds in...lol 1046mb just northwest of FVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Nice..a wintry on wintry event for many of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Euro shows a nice coastal storm for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 1004mb just east of LI and creeping north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 1004mb just east of LI and creeping north ice or snow verbatim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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