MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Bomb on the GGEM I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 yeah, with the 570DCM height lines near by....and a closed 549DCM over us....perfect scenario. Bomb on the GGEM I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 There is a AO PNA NAO triplet now forecasted in that 5-8 day period. Its definetly something to watch especially with cold HP Yeah we're going to be ok this month it appears. things looking better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 yeah, with the 570DCM height lines near by....and a closed 549DCM over us....perfect scenario. Actually, GGEM shows mostly snow for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Well next week is certainly starting to look interesting.......Something meandering off the Long Island coast early parts and then a follow up storm on last nights Euro. This mornings Canadian appears to be fun. That second follow up storm is interesting. Models are all over the map. Last nights Euro brought it right up the coast. New GFS missed southeast and this morning Canadien took it to Bermuda. But the point being that the storm exists. So next weeks interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 actually pretty excited for todays Euro runs, something from nothing means something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 wonder if we will cook as much as guidance shows in that period from the 12th --> whenever it stops. some of these runs are outrageously mild mid-month. that GFS run has the "heat" coming around the top of the ridge almost like we'd see in the summer months...from the plains to the GL then into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 wonder if we will cook as much as guidance shows in that period from the 12th --> whenever it stops. some of these runs are outrageously mild mid-month. that GFS run has the "heat" coming around the top of the ridge almost like we'd see in the summer months...from the plains to the GL then into New England. It's a giant Chinook. Complete dog crap of a pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I think it was Tip who said something about the models having a hard time handling the picture as we move further into the month (correct me if I am wrong) and that some of the weirdness in them is a result of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Again..when the Phoon recurves..all modeling will change..see how DT laid it out if folks need an explanation as to how things will progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 wonder if we will cook as much as guidance shows in that period from the 12th --> whenever it stops. some of these runs are outrageously mild mid-month. that GFS run has the "heat" coming around the top of the ridge almost like we'd see in the summer months...from the plains to the GL then into New England. Yeah that is pretty insane how warm it gets. Multiple runs have done it too...Euro was going to do it if it went out another 24-36 hours. My guess is it probably tempers as we get closer. But we may still get hit with a solid torch for a few days after avoiding it the first 12 days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Huge swings in the medium-long term outlook this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Again..when the Phoon recurves..all modeling will change..see how DT laid it out if folks need an explanation as to how things will progress It's not recurving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 It's a giant Chinook. Complete dog crap of a pattern. xmas shopping in shorts. no thanks. with the vortex in hudson bay area we at least get these cold shots to intermittently break the westerly flow for the next week or so...once that thing rolls back north...we lose that canadian cold and these big quebec HPs. i keep waiting to see the euro ens show something favorable at the end of the run. nothing there yet, at least that i can see. hopefully it ends up relatively brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Meanwhile,have to wonder how big a ticket item unfolds here coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 It's not recurving. In all seriousness..you seem close to losing it..sort of like a few of the weenies did yesterday. if that' is indeed the case... take a couple days away from the wx and the board..and come back refreshed..ready for snow/ice storm..and winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Yeah that is pretty insane how warm it gets. Multiple runs have done it too...Euro was going to do it if it went out another 24-36 hours. My guess is it probably tempers as we get closer. But we may still get hit with a solid torch for a few days after avoiding it the first 12 days of the month. yeah euro has had that look the last few runs...it's just managed to avoid it at day 10 with some kind of funky NE US trough...but it's there. i hope so. +12C 850 on S flow at least implies storminess with a cutter or something...+12C on westerly flow just implies Zakim Bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Possible high impact system evolving across the interior. Looking forward to the Euro depiction. The GGEM upped the ante. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 xmas shopping in shorts. no thanks. with the vortex in hudson bay area we at least get these cold shots to intermittently break the westerly flow for the next week or so...once that thing rolls back north...we lose that canadian cold and these big quebec HPs. i keep waiting to see the euro ens show something favorable at the end of the run. nothing there yet, at least that i can see. hopefully it ends up relatively brief. It's awful after next week. Nothing worse than highs building down to give me drizzle and 40. At least give me a torch so we know there is no hope, but these HP are useless. Now over the far interior and NNE it's a little different obviously, but around here..forget it. This looks pretty stable for the next 2-3 weeks it seems. These never break easy. Post all the CPC graphs you want..this is a stable pattern right now. Hopefully CNE and NNE on down to ORH can grab something next week...but that's not high confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 In all seriousness..you seem close to losing it..sort of like a few of the weenies did yesterday. if that' is indeed the case... take a couple days away from the wx and the board..and come back refreshed..ready for snow/ice storm..and winter It's not recurving. I'm not sure why you think I am losing it, just giving my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 It's not recurving. I'm not sure why you think I am losing it, just giving my opinion. I think it's because some mets do think it might still recurve lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I'll be a little more bullish on next week's potential if we can get to tomorrow night with the very wintry scenarios still on the table. We don't want a GFS-esque evolution. That won't get it done. We will want to see it trend toward foreign guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Possible high impact system evolving across the interior. Looking forward to the Euro depiction. The GGEM upped the ante. Yup, Unless the Euro has it, It don't seem to get much attention no matter what the other models show , But it has my interest no matter what model guidance has it other then some of the usual crap ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Well everyone who called a mid month pattern change may have been right just in the opposite direction unless the models are crapping the bed right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Yup, Unless the Euro has it, It don't seem to get much attention no matter what the other models show , But it has my interest no matter what model guidance has it other then some of the usual crap onesGGEM is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Canadian is a nuke, but so far this year I have had 3 day 6 hurricanes and about 30" of snow. Seems doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Congrats Dendrite #JustWantedToSayItFirst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 GGEM is insane Sure is, But who knows how to take that model, Last weeks system on the GGEM was a whiff until go time and i received 12.5" of snow............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 xmas shopping in shorts. no thanks. with the vortex in hudson bay area we at least get these cold shots to intermittently break the westerly flow for the next week or so...once that thing rolls back north...we lose that canadian cold and these big quebec HPs. i keep waiting to see the euro ens show something favorable at the end of the run. nothing there yet, at least that i can see. hopefully it ends up relatively brief. Agree! Would be nice to see some cold air building at the end of these op runs in Canada but both continue to show a mild zonal flow. Last night euro ens looked to start breaking down the Goa post day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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