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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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Euro shows a lot of cold air in the low levels with that system next week.

 

Something for sure to watch. Mid-levels are marginal too. The high position is what makes me thing this one could be quite interesting...esp for CNE/NNE...but even interior SNE in the usual spots like ORH hills and GC (though I guess you could lump this with CNE)

Any shot farther south in terrain areas? By chance I don't mean snow..just wintry precip in general

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Verbatim is was a big ice storm from your area to ORH. It dumped a ton of QPF with temps in the 20s. But 6+ days out so we will keep the verbatim talk to a minimum.

It's disappointing that it is 6+ days away...I would love a massive ice storm.  Hopefully the models continue to show this as we get closer.

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Any shot farther south in terrain areas? By chance I don't mean snow..just wintry precip in general

6 days out. There's always a shot. I don't like your area as much tho for big icing since you have more trouble holding CAD than further N&W. It could still end up a bit colder in the mid-levels too. But def the further N is going to be better off closer to that source region.

We still need the storm to actually happen though and also keep that high in a very favorable spot.

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Signals seem to me to indicate a ton of East flow over a cold interior dome with those favored East upslope areas like the Berks really loading up. Impressive high pressure with a low dew infeed indicates wintry precipitation pretty far south in interior NE. Big ticket look, follow up cutoff out in fantasy land is intriguing but way out there. MPM make sure your Genny works.

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For most of sne, it's a pretty standard way to run one.

I think it has alway been made clear that cne/nne would do fine.

I also wouldn't be spiking footballs even up there on a 6 day depiction. This window around the 9th-10th has been on the radar for a while anyway for those paying attention to the medium range discussion going back a few days. The look of Quebec highs was why we were not going to feel the full brunt of the mild pattern in NE.

We may get lucky with this event but it isn't close enough yet to get too excited in the interior.

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helluva way to run a mildish boring pattern.

 

 

Up by you, Eric and Brian--absolutely.  Not so much here in tropical land.

 

Well its still a ways away but so far things have been pretty favorable early on as we are off to one of our earliest starts for winter so i remain optimistic at this point, But the 0z Euro does show what could possibly happen if things played out right

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6 days out. There's always a shot. I don't like your area as much tho for big icing since you have more trouble holding CAD than further N&W. It could still end up a bit colder in the mid-levels too. But def the further N is going to be better off closer to that source region.

We still need the storm to actually happen though and also keep that high in a very favorable spot.

 

Oh--I thought you were talking the Sunday night/Monday possibility.  I'd hate to be relying on the generator here while I'm away next week.  I'll be happy with ip or rn for the benefit of my wife and daughter.

 

31.4/31.  Stick a fork in it.

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Oh--I thought you were talking the Monday possibility.  I'd hate to be relying on the generator here while I'm away next week.  I'll be happy with ip or rn for the benefit of my wife and daughter.

 

31.4/31.  Stick a fork in it.

He is talking about Monday and beyond next week I believe.

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He is talking about Monday and beyond next week I believe.

 

Yes...there's a weaker system out ahead of it on Saturday...but that looks rainy aside from maybe a few flakes at the onset. NNE mountains may get a shot of snow from that.

 

Monday and beyond has more potential with the high building in.

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I hear what you are saying, but for I would like to experience it just once.  I am not saying an every winter type thing, but just to have that lifetime experience

 

I want an ice storm too, I got the generator and woodstove ready to rip.  Not as bad as 2008, but having no power for a couple to three days would be worth it to me.  Ice storms are also a great way to get free firewood  :lmao:

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So, back to meteorology: Realistic chances for snow in SNE (or sleet) given the atmospheric set up and models. I know the Quebec high is a good thing (especially further north), but can it pull something out of the basket for us given what is actually modeled and not simply fantasized or wished.

 

What do the mets say? SNE means using the Taunton office's forecast region.

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