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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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It is a simple yet complex look to the weather pattern this weekend into next week.  First of all we have a northern stream disturbance originating from the Gulf of Alaska, its there now, in three and a half days, by Friday this disturbance will make landfall on the west coast of British Columbia, Canada.  BY Sunday of this upcoming weekend, arctic jet energy will become phased with the northern jet stream disturbance, bringing very cold air into the trough.  Then there is a southern stream disturbance which is currently off the coast of CA and this will be the system this weekend bringing in the warmer ocean air and rainfall for the coastal plain of SNE and mountain snows.  Now the northern stream system, since it phases with the arctic jet energy, then shoves southeastward creating its own surface reflection south of ACK and east of VA Beach.  It is this energy along the arctic front that could explode into something more significant than currently modeled.  Again it appears the GFS is the only on this idea, with the EURO a close second showing a secondary piece of 500mb energy moving through the trough.  Question is how close this comes to the coast when the cold air arrives to produce a second coastal snowstorm.  Still about 3.5 days away from the initial disturbance, and 8 days away from the northern stream disturbance's influence on our sensible weather.

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It is a simple yet complex look to the weather pattern this weekend into next week.  First of all we have a northern stream disturbance originating from the Gulf of Alaska, its there now, in three and a half days, by Friday this disturbance will make landfall on the west coast of British Columbia, Canada.  BY Sunday of this upcoming weekend, arctic jet energy will become phased with the northern jet stream disturbance, bringing very cold air into the trough.  Then there is a southern stream disturbance which is currently off the coast of CA and this will be the system this weekend bringing in the warmer ocean air and rainfall for the coastal plain of SNE and mountain snows.  Now the northern stream system, since it phases with the arctic jet energy, then shoves southeastward creating its own surface reflection south of ACK and east of VA Beach.  It is this energy along the arctic front that could explode into something more significant than currently modeled.  Again it appears the GFS is the only on this idea, with the EURO a close second showing a secondary piece of 500mb energy moving through the trough.  Question is how close this comes to the coast when the cold air arrives to produce a second coastal snowstorm.  Still about 3.5 days away from the initial disturbance, and 8 days away from the northern stream disturbance's influence on our sensible weather.

 

 

This scenario is like a 1 in 500 shot or worse...it's really not realistic.

 

I could see a pretty potent storm happening, but not phased with arctic energy and being nearly as cold as you have in this scenario. Most likely, it's a marginal airmass.

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This scenario is like a 1 in 500 shot or worse...it's really not realistic.

 

I could see a pretty potent storm happening, but not phased with arctic energy and being nearly as cold as you have in this scenario. Most likely, it's a marginal airmass.

So you're telling me there's a chance? e94be855f3c2bd28eb03bef0cb230519_normal.

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To give him credit, he has been talking about this idea for several days now. Not to say that the idea has any merit, but it's nice to see some guidance, no matter how terrible, latch onto your thoughts. 

 

Fair enough, I was just wondering what the "evolution" was rather than just a low pressure sitting south of SNE. 

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Good grief...the 00z GFS has a full week up here of H85 temperatures greater than 0C.  That would be impressive to do in mid-December.

 

The 00z run has the last sub-freezing H85 temps on 00z Friday, 12/11...and then at the end of the run on 00z Friday, 12/19, we still haven't gone back below 0C at H85. 

 

For one county south of Canada this time of year... that would be noteworthy.

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I don't know, I kind of like the timing of this warm up. We saw it coming from awhile away, like to have this in early December than late December. I don't see it as a long standing setup or anything, should still be a nice transition into weather in a few weeks hopefully with a stormy period as the cold returns. As others have mentioned earlier (haven't read every page really) it co-incides nicely with a pattern change right around the holidays, at a time the region will be better served to sustain snowpack heading into January and the heart of winter. The pattern has featured a big storm every so often since the start of the fall and the ability to spin up some coastals, which excites me because of the type of tracks we have been seeing will be much snowier within a few weeks time due to climo.

 

:weenie:

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The 12z  Euro had 17C 850 temps in Alberta on December 12th!  This could turn me into a global warming believer.  LOL

 

On a plus note it takes until day 10 now to torch our areas...  It's ironic that the torch is only reaching us around the date that some people has postulated that we would be returning to a cold pattern.

Good grief...the 00z GFS has a full week up here of H85 temperatures greater than 0C.  That would be impressive to do in mid-December.

 

The 00z run has the last sub-freezing H85 temps on 00z Friday, 12/11...and then at the end of the run on 00z Friday, 12/19, we still haven't gone back below 0C at H85. 

 

For one county south of Canada this time of year... that would be noteworthy.

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0z Euro shows a coastal storm early next week . Looks like a really nice hit for interior areas. 850s are warm near the coast but the surface is pretty cold thanks to the high to the north.

 

0z Euro is also developing another coastal low at 180 hours. It ends  up just east of the benchmark. Light snow a long the coast. There would be plenty of cold air to work with if the storm was closer to the coast. Things just got really interesting.

 

1st low

f144.gif

 

2nd low

f192.gif

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0z Euro shows a coastal storm early next week . Looks like a really nice hit for interior areas. 850s are warm near the coast but the surface is pretty cold thanks to the high to the north.

 

0z Euro is also developing another coastal low at 180 hours. It ends  up just east of the benchmark. Light snow a long the coast. There would be plenty of cold air to work with if the storm was closer to the coast. Things just got really interesting.

 

1st low

f144.gif

 

2nd low

 

Really? 180 hours?  Well I guess that will have to pass for interesting in these times. 

 

As a side note it is really freaking windy right now. House shaking as it pours around here.

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Verbatim on the Euro:

 

The first low moves north or north northeast right up to like Long Island then fades northeast. It actually seems to front end interior SNE with heavy snow and then torches them. From here across VT, northern NH and northern ME it's all snow.

 

The second low starts further offshore and tracks right up to just off the Cape. Looks better for SNE, but it still manages to torch eastern NE and Maine.

 

The op Euro now keeps us cold through day 10, but looming to the west is obscenely mild air ..as in 19C 850 temps in SD. Don't see how we escape that with the look of the 5H at H240, but it keeps slipping further back in time it seems.

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Euro shows a lot of cold air in the low levels with that system next week.

 

Something for sure to watch. Mid-levels are marginal too. The high position is what makes me thing this one could be quite interesting...esp for CNE/NNE...but even interior SNE in the usual spots like ORH hills and GC (though I guess you could lump this with CNE)

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Hmmm...

Warm air mass vs. cold air mass = interesting. Who'd a thunk it.

It's still thread the needle, many more ways to go wrong than right, but there is some potential in this pattern.

I don't know who anyone else is trying to fool, but it's the chase that really matters. I foresee at least a couple trackable disappointments in the next two weeks.

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