OceanStWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 A Question to the Mets for everyone - When I checked the NWS yesterday morning it had Snow / Sleet tonight for me. I had no idea, and I checked the NAM and GFS. Both had the 850 0C, 10M 0C, and others ALL North of me when the Precip. hit. If I didn't know anything other than the models I'd say 0% chance of frozen precip. So, how is it snowing (now Heavy Sleet) outside? Models almost always rush the low level warmth, especially in situations like this. BOX was surely banking on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 C-1" for Andover to Ray perhaps tonight. Nice burst here. Ground already coated, approaching a 1/2". Falling light to moderate over the last 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 This weekend could deliver in CNE and NNE possibly Berks and northern Orh. South of those areas will take some work and probably not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Nice burst here. Ground already coated, approaching a 1/2". Falling light to moderate over the last 15 minutes. Same at work. Nice snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 News stations are rarely ever loud about a long-range winter threat, and rightfully so. Edit: good news stations. You are correct with that idea, but sometimes Brad Field will say that things can change toward the cold side if he is thinking that, he didn't say that. In Fact, he said that it would just be "Ugly," and that this time of year "He'd much rather have it snow, than Rain at 45 degrees." He was making a point, that it looks like just RAIN. I know that this can change very quickly over the next few days(hope it does), but as of Today, it's looking like just a Rain event for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Scott, I see two possible scenarios unfolding this weekend into early next week. 1.) the initial southern stream shortwave wins out and floods the region with warmth and rain while the mountains get plenty of snow as they remain close to the source of cold air, the high over Canada. And 2.) the initial shortwave moves through the region slows down and meanders off the coast, all the while a stronger disturbance within the northern stream brings its own cold air as energy transfers from the arctic jet into the northern stream disturbance and then develops its own surface low near VA and moves NNEward from Monday through Wednesday producing a snowstorm along the coastline. QUestion is, is the 18z GFS closer to the real solution then previous runs of the EURO, GFS and CMC or is it on its own camp? Timing with this shortwave is everything for this coastal low and whether or not the rain turns over to all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Quite a cold shot behind the storm towards the middle of next week on the Euro. Low temps below zero in snow covered areas and widespread single digits and teens to the south. Overall however it looks like we are an island of cold in a sea of warmth at the end of the run with major storms crashing into the west coast and mild Pacific air flooding the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Scott, I see two possible scenarios unfolding this weekend into early next week. 1.) the initial southern stream shortwave wins out and floods the region with warmth and rain while the mountains get plenty of snow as they remain close to the source of cold air, the high over Canada. And 2.) the initial shortwave moves through the region slows down and meanders off the coast, all the while a stronger disturbance within the northern stream brings its own cold air as energy transfers from the arctic jet into the northern stream disturbance and then develops its own surface low near VA and moves NNEward from Monday through Wednesday producing a snowstorm along the coastline. QUestion is, is the 18z GFS closer to the real solution then previous runs of the EURO, GFS and CMC or is it on its own camp? Timing with this shortwave is everything for this coastal low and whether or not the rain turns over to all snow. James, what did the 18z GFS show? And I appreciate your analysis :-). Scenario Number 1 is probably much more likely at this juncture imo. But I do hope that your Scenario number 2 does play out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 James, what did the 18z GFS show? And I appreciate your analysis :-). Scenario Number 1 is probably much more likely at this juncture imo. But I do hope that your Scenario number 2 does play out lol. It mainly showed scenario 2 as a possibility. First of all we have the southern stream disturbance to move through the region, however the northern stream system delays and moves through as a separate entity. Therefore no mega storms. However the models are slowly beginning to show the phase as a distinct possibility. We have at least another three days before we have any idea on what's real and what isn't real at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Plus, we have a very cold air mass associated with this disturbance in the northern stream as arctic jet energy entrains into the northern jet disturbance. We have seen this before. Therefore I think we will at least see two days where temperatures are way below normal, likely Tuesday and Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Just out of curiosity, if the MJO wave doesn't materialize or doesn't really change the overall ground state pattern what else could possibly get us out of the +EPO nightmare? Would it take something from the stratosphere to get it done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Plus, we have a very cold air mass associated with this disturbance in the northern stream as arctic jet energy entrains into the northern jet disturbance. We have seen this before. Therefore I think we will at least see two days where temperatures are way below normal, likely Tuesday and Wednesday. Thank You for the replys...appreciated!! You make logical points. Guess we will just have to see where the Modeling goes over the next few days?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Sleeting pretty good out here now at 29F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Well there's always the 1992ish JMA prog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 What did the JMA show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Probably a few of these........ :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Probably a few of these........ :weenie: and many more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 That's the coldest scenario I have seen from any model to this point, something more in line with what I am thinking, still a long shot, but the GFS is trending towards this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Oh dear God he comes the weenies. IT's the JMA its right every 20 years or so. It's not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 More weenies than at a Sox game on this page. It's something to watch, but let's not start overanalyzing model runs this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I'm not overanalyzing anything at this point, just find it fascinating that a model is showing something I have been keying in on for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I'm not overanalyzing anything at this point, just find it fascinating that a model is showing something I have been keying in on for several days. Weenie Contestant #1 Walk Oooonnnn down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Oh dear God he comes the weenies. IT's the JMA its right every 20 years or so. It's not happening. Weenie Contestant #1 Walk Oooonnnn down Good contributions to the discussion about weather on a weather board..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Good contributions to the discussion about weather on a weather board..... thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I'm not overanalyzing anything at this point, just find it fascinating that a model is showing something I have been keying in on for several days. Did you actually look at the model or just assume a 992 low there means it happened as you envisioned? If looking for the most solution, the JMA won't fail ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Did you actually look at the model or just assume a 992 low there means it happened as you envisioned? If looking for the most solution, the JMA won't fail ya. To give him credit, he has been talking about this idea for several days now. Not to say that the idea has any merit, but it's nice to see some guidance, no matter how terrible, latch onto your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 JMA- Just Mention Anything remotely close to weeniesh and it will probably back you up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 We got a ways to go...there's some support on ensemble guidance for a storm, but we're still talking about 5-7 days away. I'd basically expect nothing anywhere on the coast...best shot would be interior CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 All kidding aside, there is a low probability of a weak wave or something along the true arctic front but anything significant seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 All kidding aside, there is a low probability of a weak wave or something along the true arctic front but anything significant seems unlikely. that's not true, even the GFS and EURO show significant QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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