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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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A Question to the Mets for everyone - 

 

When I checked the NWS yesterday morning it had Snow / Sleet tonight for me.  I had no idea, and I checked the NAM and GFS.  Both had the 850 0C, 10M 0C, and others ALL North of me when the Precip. hit.  If I didn't know anything other than the models I'd say 0% chance of frozen precip.  

 

So, how is it snowing (now Heavy Sleet) outside?  

 

Models almost always rush the low level warmth, especially in situations like this. BOX was surely banking on that.

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News stations are rarely ever loud about a long-range winter threat, and rightfully so.

 

Edit: good news stations.

 

You are correct with that idea, but sometimes Brad Field will say that things can change toward the cold side if he is thinking that, he didn't say that. In Fact, he said that it would just be "Ugly," and that this time of year "He'd much rather have it snow, than Rain at 45 degrees." He was making a point, that it looks like just RAIN. I know that this can change very quickly over the next few days(hope it does), but as of Today, it's looking like just a Rain event for CT.

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Scott, I see two possible scenarios unfolding this weekend into early next week.  1.) the initial southern stream shortwave wins out and floods the region with warmth and rain while the mountains get plenty of snow as they remain close to the source of cold air, the high over Canada.  And 2.) the initial shortwave moves through the region slows down and meanders off the coast, all the while a stronger disturbance within the northern stream brings its own cold air as energy transfers from the arctic jet into the northern stream disturbance and then develops its own surface low near VA and moves NNEward from Monday through Wednesday producing a snowstorm along the coastline.

 

QUestion is, is the 18z GFS closer to the real solution then previous runs of the EURO, GFS and CMC or is it on its own camp?  Timing with this shortwave is everything for this coastal low and whether or not the rain turns over to all snow.

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Quite a cold shot behind the storm towards the middle of next week on the Euro. Low temps below zero in snow covered areas and widespread single digits and teens to the south. Overall however it looks like we are an island of cold in a sea of warmth at the end of the run with major storms crashing into the west coast and mild Pacific air flooding the pattern.

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Scott, I see two possible scenarios unfolding this weekend into early next week.  1.) the initial southern stream shortwave wins out and floods the region with warmth and rain while the mountains get plenty of snow as they remain close to the source of cold air, the high over Canada.  And 2.) the initial shortwave moves through the region slows down and meanders off the coast, all the while a stronger disturbance within the northern stream brings its own cold air as energy transfers from the arctic jet into the northern stream disturbance and then develops its own surface low near VA and moves NNEward from Monday through Wednesday producing a snowstorm along the coastline.

 

QUestion is, is the 18z GFS closer to the real solution then previous runs of the EURO, GFS and CMC or is it on its own camp?  Timing with this shortwave is everything for this coastal low and whether or not the rain turns over to all snow.

 

James, what did the 18z GFS show? And I appreciate your analysis :-). Scenario Number 1 is probably much more likely at this juncture imo. But I do hope that your Scenario number 2 does play out lol.

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James, what did the 18z GFS show? And I appreciate your analysis :-). Scenario Number 1 is probably much more likely at this juncture imo. But I do hope that your Scenario number 2 does play out lol.

 

It mainly showed scenario 2 as a possibility.  First of all we have the southern stream disturbance to move through the region, however the northern stream system delays and moves through as a separate entity.  Therefore no mega storms.  However the models are slowly beginning to show the phase as a distinct possibility.  We have at least another three days before we have any idea on what's real and what isn't real at this point.

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Plus, we have a very cold air mass associated with this disturbance in the northern stream as arctic jet energy entrains into the northern jet disturbance.  We have seen this before.  Therefore I think we will at least see two days where temperatures are way below normal, likely Tuesday and Wednesday.

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Plus, we have a very cold air mass associated with this disturbance in the northern stream as arctic jet energy entrains into the northern jet disturbance.  We have seen this before.  Therefore I think we will at least see two days where temperatures are way below normal, likely Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

Thank You for the replys...appreciated!! You make logical points. Guess we will just have to see where the Modeling goes over the next few days??

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I'm not overanalyzing anything at this point, just find it fascinating that a model is showing something I have been keying in on for several days.

Did you actually look at the model or just assume a 992 low there means it happened as you envisioned? If looking for the most :weenie: solution, the JMA won't fail ya.

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Did you actually look at the model or just assume a 992 low there means it happened as you envisioned? If looking for the most :weenie: solution, the JMA won't fail ya.

To give him credit, he has been talking about this idea for several days now. Not to say that the idea has any merit, but it's nice to see some guidance, no matter how terrible, latch onto your thoughts. 

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