Zeus Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Hold off on the winter calls on 12/2. All I'm saying is, I still haven't hit my full seasonal average accumulation and it's been over a day of meteorological winter so far. Color me disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 All I'm saying is, I still haven't hit my full seasonal average accumulation and it's been over a day of meteorological winter so far. Color me disappointed. meanwhile its snowing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Euro is certainly showing potential today...it's a good storm for the NNE mountains, and it might even give interior SNE a bit of wintry precip. Esp at the onset. Quite a ways out though...it's delayed about a day later than when the GFS and GGEM have it. That EURO run was a condo crusher blue snow bomb in the mountains, with ice south of that. But oh man is that a marginal sounding. Like 5,000ft of 0C to -2C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 BOS snow and vis 9 miles. Pounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 That EURO run was a condo crusher blue snow bomb in the mountains, with ice south of that. But oh man is that a marginal sounding. Like 5,000ft of 0C to -2C. Ensembles were actually decently colder with good QPF signal ...so I'd be feeling pretty good in CNE/NNE for a 6-7 day threat...obviously the usual caveats apply. Gotta keep expectations realistic. But the high location would have me a bit more optimistic than usual for a stale airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 There's meaurable QPF for like 60-72 hours straight worth of 6 hr frames on the mean...that's pretty good for an ensemble mean this far out. Also, the high is in a good spot with good cold in S Quebec...our antecedent airmass kind of stinks, but if you are advecting some of that very dry air in from the good high to the north, then things can happen...esp over the interior. Still a ways out obviously. For my zone forecast fetish...but this seems a little much right now. Surprised they can go 70% of snow for a period over 5 days away. Monday...Snow likely. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 That EURO run was a condo crusher blue snow bomb in the mountains, with ice south of that. But oh man is that a marginal sounding. Like 5,000ft of 0C to -2C. the ens show a nice run for you guys. I still haven't gotten answer from Ryan on why I can't post publicly shared posted in social media by the vendor WSI maps on here. They are not proprietary and are not labelled not for retransmission. I have not found one forum rule which prevents it. I understand Wxbells are off limits as they require folks to not retransmit, but once they or WSI publicly tweet or put them on facebook there is absolutely zero reason we can not post them here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Well I guess BTV is jumping in with the EURO...I figured it was write by TABER as he's a big skier, haha. "Meanwhile...the system now impacting California will cross across the SW Continental U.S. The next couple of days...then into the MS valley by the weekend with weak surface low pressure developing...while a blocking high pressure builds across the northern Atlantic by early next week. This block will result in better chances for phasing with northern stream energy over the Great Lakes with southern stream energy over the southeast Continental U.S. Late Sunday into Monday...which is advertised by the latest 12z European model (ecmwf). The European model (ecmwf) would be very favorable solution for a moderate snowfall across most of the north country early next week...with surface low track across Cape Cod and a closing off 500 mb/7h circulation to our south across southern New England. This solution is the most aggressive with phasing...surface development and closing off the middle/upper level circulations...when compared with others. I will trend toward this solution and increase probability of precipitation to likely...with thermal profiles supporting mainly snow. European model (ecmwf) did much better across our County Warning Area...with handling the pre Thanksgiving day storm and typical performs better in these types of pattern. Given the very complex and complicated upper level pattern and associated surface features for early next week...I expect several changes in the models in future runs. Should be noted both the GFS/Gem also have a similar type solution with weak surface low pressure moving along the eastern Seaboard late Sunday into Monday. However...the 12z GFS shows the primary surface low tracking across the central Great Lakes...closer to the stronger northern stream energy...and this would place our County Warning Area in the warm sector...similar to the event tonight. Bottom line looks like a moderate type system will impact our region early next week...with some potential for an accumulating snow event. Temperatures looks to be near normal for the weekend...before dropping back blw normal as cold air is drawn into the system by Monday night/Tuesday. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 the ens show a nice run for you guys. I still haven'y gotten answer from ryan on why I can't post publicly shared posted in social media by the vendor of WSI pmaps on here. They are not proprietary and are not labelled not for retransmission. I have not found one forum rule which prevents it. I understand Wxbells are off limits as they require folks to not retransmit, but once they or WSI publicly tweet or put them on facebook there is absolutely zero reason we can not post them here I'm pretty sure once it's on social media it's fair game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I'm pretty sure once it's on social media it's fair game... Mike Ventrice just tweeted this to Loon and Mt Snow, Euro Ens snow( take it for what its worth) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashFreeze Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 30, light snow, still 2" left, a few bare spots, solar winter has kept the snow cover even after a 2 day torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 There's meaurable QPF for like 60-72 hours straight worth of 6 hr frames on the mean...that's pretty good for an ensemble mean this far out. Also, the high is in a good spot with good cold in S Quebec...our antecedent airmass kind of stinks, but if you are advecting some of that very dry air in from the good high to the north, then things can happen...esp over the interior. Still a ways out obviously. What day does this begin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Mike Ventrice just tweeted this to Loon and Mt Snow, Euro Ens snow( take it for what its worth) That's actually fairly impressive for the ensembles at 5-6 days out. It's still a snow map but that's a good QPF signal for an ensemble mean so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 For all those ponder this http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/02/why-prosperous-autumn-snows-in-eurasia-may-portend-a-brutal-east-coast-winter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 What day does this begin? Euro has it starting next Monday...some of the other guidance has it starting as early as Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 That's actually fairly impressive for the ensembles at 5-6 days out. It's still a snow map but that's a good QPF signal for an ensemble mean so far out. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44963-december-winter-is-finally-here/?p=3166569 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Some flakes starting to fly here @ 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Euro has it starting next Monday...some of the other guidance has it starting as early as Saturday. Could certainly make my stay in Lake Placid and accompanying drive back (Wednesday next week) very very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 from GYX afternoon discussion: All models lift low northward through the region Monday through Monday night although track and timing diffs quite glaring. This will likely result in a prolonged period of mixed precipitation across the region gradually going to rain in the south. Quite sure of seeing changes in track in timing with this complex system in future model runs...but the potential is there for a significant winter event. Something to watch, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44963-december-winter-is-finally-here/?p=3166569 Nice missed that post. I can't find the mean 6-hourly QPF panels on wxbell, it just has run-total every 6-hours so it's hard when there are earlier precip events like tonight and then Fri/Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Right, nobody is disagreeing that the pattern is unusual for December. However, I think two things are occurring that are throwing some mets in a loop with forecasts. The NAO is very + and will stay that way through the month I think. And two, the massive GOAK trough extending through AK helping to torch Canada. These patterns don't just vanish. It will take some work. This is a great post! Cohen was saying in a article that if the December remains mild across the country that he would be concerned for the rest of the winter. Would be too much to overcome.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 This is a great post! Cohen was saying in a article that if the December remains mild across the country that he would be concerned for the rest of the winter. Would be too much to overcome.. Well I wasn't really going that far..lol. Just that it may not take 2 weeks to vanish. I don't have any concerns for winter right now. Go back and look at past Decembers in Ninos. Many had a lousy period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Plenty of years have seen a pattern flip in the Holidays period and gone on to be pretty good Winters. In fact probably more often than not we don't settle into a cold and snowy pattern until that time frame. Some years it's a back and forth all winter and we never stay cold and snowy, but we score several good snowstorms. This is a great post! Cohen was saying in a article that if the December remains mild across the country that he would be concerned for the rest of the winter. Would be too much to overcome.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 An exmaple of what Cohen meant was that if December ends up too mild, then his DJF forecast can bust because you'd need very negative anomalies later on to offset it. This happened in 2012-2013...we really furnaced through mid-January. Then the cold that came afterward from the Siberian snow cover impacts was no match for the positive departures built up to that point...but the February/March snows were prolific just the same, even if they weren't cold enough to offset earlier in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Plenty of years have seen a pattern flip in the Holidays period and gone on to be pretty good Winters. In fact probably more often than not we don't settle into a cold and snowy pattern until that time frame. Some years it's a back and forth all winter and we never stay cold and snowy, but we score several good snowstorms. Can"t stress this enough, talk to me in January if it looks like Dec, odd folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 An exmaple of what Cohen meant was that if December ends up too mild, then his DJF forecast can bust because you'd need very negative anomalies later on to offset it. This happened in 2012-2013...we really furnaced through mid-January. Then the cold that came afterward from the Siberian snow cover impacts was no match for the positive departures built up to that point...but the February/March snows were prolific just the same, even if they weren't cold enough to offset earlier in the winter. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 yep When did Cohen become this great forecaster?..never heard of him before the last few days..Seems you go to every board and he's the main topic lol..please guys.take a LR forecast more than 2 weeks as pure speculation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 When did Cohen become this great forecaster?..never heard of him before the last few days..Seems you go to every board and he's the main topic lol..please guys.take a LR forecast more than 2 weeks as pure speculation He is a pretty respected met whi I have known about since following these boards. I don't know how well his LR verifies but he is pretty well known Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Boom Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 7m 7 minutes ago Liking the 500mb geopotential height anomaly pattern a la ECMWF weeklies for a eastern U.S. Christmas snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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