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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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HM has a better way with words with this stuff than I do lol

 

"Sometimes a jet extension from a +EA MT or enhanced baroclinicity can bump the EPO up...being the momentum that pushes Aleutian low east...in a La Nina background state, however, it usually is a cold signal...pushing the Aleutian High east, dropping EPO"

 

 

 

I think that could be whats happening here with this MJO progression in the near term

 

Yeah I follow what he is saying. With the low already there, the forcing as it moves east won't really change the pattern..or I should say, may not alter it too much.  I do see signs that higher heights are trying to build south of the Aleutian low, (strong jet) and this may try to pump up heights down the road and sort of push the low or adjust it west a bit.

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What I see as a possibility only remains that possibility for the time being until more model support grows for that certain outcome.  I know its a long shot to see what that one member is showing as the odds are about 1 for 12, but I also see the potential in the northern stream, with a strong +PNA signal any major outcome is possible, without it we wouldn't have much of a choice.

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The brilliant Dr. Judah it is absolutely correct about December. When I made my winter forecast back in the middle of October ...I saw a distinct

difference with the +PDO December 500 mb patterns when compared to

the +PDO 500 mb January February and March patterns.

This image shows clearly the problem with the +PDO pattern in DECEMBER. The RIDGE is NOT located over Greenland or Iceland but is actually located over Scandinavia http://tinyurl.com/oc2r36s

That sort of set up is NOT a cold pattern for any part of the central/ eastern US. This is one of the reasons why I forecasted a fairly mild December for much of the country east the Rockies. Indeed if we take a look at the

current pattern as of December 2 we see two important features. The

RIDGE is over Scandinavia -- typical of DEC +PDO patterns --and as

Dr Cohen said --there is large 500 Low over North Central coast

of Russia.

We can also see a huge positive height anomaly over the North Pole.

http://tinyurl.com/nmozw2d

By day 10 and beyond the European Ensemble shows the large intense 500

Low over North Central Russia has dissipated ( yay!!!!) and we now see a strong Caspian Sea RIDGE pushing up towards the Urals. This is known as a strong signature for significant pattern change in about 6-10-- after

DEC 18

http://tinyurl.com/polzymn

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I'll join DITs and Jame's fantasy. Massive snowstorm commences on the night of December 21 and ends on the morning of December 23. People can put in their own amounts (nothing less than a foot, please, unless you live on the Cape or Long Island). ORH >24", maybe up to 36". Who cares about reality, this is December!

 

PS Do I get another weenie?

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I'll join DITs and Jame's fantasy. Massive snowstorm commences on the night of December 21 and ends on the morning of December 23. People can put in their own amounts (nothing less than a foot, please, unless you live on the Cape or Long Island). ORH >24", maybe up to 36". Who cares about reality, this is December!

 

PS Do I get another weenie?

 

 

Just keep the fantasy talk to this thread:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44687-panic-in-tolland-meltdown-thread/page-3?

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Right, nobody is disagreeing that the pattern is unusual for December. However, I think two things are occurring that are throwing some mets in a loop with forecasts. The NAO is very + and will stay that way through the month I think. And two, the massive GOAK trough extending through AK helping to torch Canada. These patterns don't just vanish. It will take some work.

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Right, nobody is disagreeing that the pattern is unusual for December. However, I think two things are occurring that are throwing some mets in a loop with forecasts. The NAO is very + and will stay that way through the month I think. And two, the massive GOAK trough extending through AK helping to torch Canada. These patterns don't just vanish. It will take some work.

Yup, takes time. I think calls for pattern change mid month are going to need to be pushed back indefinitely.

Hopefully we can turn this thing around. I think we will know in a few weeks if this is going go be a disaster or not

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Yup, takes time. I think calls for pattern change mid month are going to need to be pushed back indefinitely.

Hopefully we can turn this thing around. I think we will know in a few weeks if this is going go be a disaster or not

 

Well I can't give a date, but all you need is a little relaxation which could happen around that time. The pattern is ok if shoved west several hundred miles or so.  Just turn off the Pac Jet a bit and you'll have money in the bank to work with across Canada (that being cold). 

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Yup, takes time. I think calls for pattern change mid month are going to need to be pushed back indefinitely.

Hopefully we can turn this thing around. I think we will know in a few weeks if this is going go be a disaster or not

A disaster for the Whole Winter....is that what you are saying/thinking???  Or just December??

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A disaster for the Whole Winter....is that what you are saying/thinking??? Or just December??

The month of December mostly. We will know within the next few weeks if things may shake our favorably towards the end of the month. The consensus seems to be favorable still for the far long range.

I dont live in fantasy land though, for the foreseeable future it looks pretty crapy. The jury is still out on late DEC.

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That's not a quick 12hr event either as modeled.

 

There's meaurable QPF for like 60-72 hours straight worth of 6 hr frames on the mean...that's pretty good for an ensemble mean this far out.

 

Also, the high is in a good spot with good cold in S Quebec...our antecedent airmass kind of stinks, but if you are advecting some of that very dry air in from the good high to the north, then things can happen...esp over the interior.

 

Still a ways out obviously.

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