CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 HM has a better way with words with this stuff than I do lol "Sometimes a jet extension from a +EA MT or enhanced baroclinicity can bump the EPO up...being the momentum that pushes Aleutian low east...in a La Nina background state, however, it usually is a cold signal...pushing the Aleutian High east, dropping EPO" I think that could be whats happening here with this MJO progression in the near term Yeah I follow what he is saying. With the low already there, the forcing as it moves east won't really change the pattern..or I should say, may not alter it too much. I do see signs that higher heights are trying to build south of the Aleutian low, (strong jet) and this may try to pump up heights down the road and sort of push the low or adjust it west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 brutal. thankfully it's only 12/2 Welcome back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The problem with these massive lows, is that they are usually happy and don't like to go anywhere fast. They laugh at the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Welcome backWelcome to the Hotel Weeniefornia.. You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 What I see as a possibility only remains that possibility for the time being until more model support grows for that certain outcome. I know its a long shot to see what that one member is showing as the odds are about 1 for 12, but I also see the potential in the northern stream, with a strong +PNA signal any major outcome is possible, without it we wouldn't have much of a choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Welcome back had to come and read and see how kevin is handling this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 had to come and read and see how kevin is handling this Not too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 had to come and read and see how kevin is handling thisJust waiting for the Euro to realize what most other modeling does and recurve the phoon. And await massive model shift to cold in CON US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The pattern overall is rough, no doubt, but that doesn't mean we can't have a situation where we get a snowstorm out of it either, unlikely for the coastline, but west of 495 could see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 brutal. thankfully it's only 12/2 12z runs have been a bit ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The brilliant Dr. Judah it is absolutely correct about December. When I made my winter forecast back in the middle of October ...I saw a distinct difference with the +PDO December 500 mb patterns when compared to the +PDO 500 mb January February and March patterns. This image shows clearly the problem with the +PDO pattern in DECEMBER. The RIDGE is NOT located over Greenland or Iceland but is actually located over Scandinavia http://tinyurl.com/oc2r36s That sort of set up is NOT a cold pattern for any part of the central/ eastern US. This is one of the reasons why I forecasted a fairly mild December for much of the country east the Rockies. Indeed if we take a look at the current pattern as of December 2 we see two important features. The RIDGE is over Scandinavia -- typical of DEC +PDO patterns --and as Dr Cohen said --there is large 500 Low over North Central coast of Russia. We can also see a huge positive height anomaly over the North Pole. http://tinyurl.com/nmozw2d By day 10 and beyond the European Ensemble shows the large intense 500 Low over North Central Russia has dissipated ( yay!!!!) and we now see a strong Caspian Sea RIDGE pushing up towards the Urals. This is known as a strong signature for significant pattern change in about 6-10-- after DEC 18 http://tinyurl.com/polzymn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Makes sense, pattern change by December 18th in time for the notorious dates for storms on December 21st and 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I'll join DITs and Jame's fantasy. Massive snowstorm commences on the night of December 21 and ends on the morning of December 23. People can put in their own amounts (nothing less than a foot, please, unless you live on the Cape or Long Island). ORH >24", maybe up to 36". Who cares about reality, this is December! PS Do I get another weenie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I'll join DITs and Jame's fantasy. Massive snowstorm commences on the night of December 21 and ends on the morning of December 23. People can put in their own amounts (nothing less than a foot, please, unless you live on the Cape or Long Island). ORH >24", maybe up to 36". Who cares about reality, this is December! PS Do I get another weenie? Just keep the fantasy talk to this thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44687-panic-in-tolland-meltdown-thread/page-3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Right, nobody is disagreeing that the pattern is unusual for December. However, I think two things are occurring that are throwing some mets in a loop with forecasts. The NAO is very + and will stay that way through the month I think. And two, the massive GOAK trough extending through AK helping to torch Canada. These patterns don't just vanish. It will take some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 A few mangled flakes coming down now. 38.2o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Meanwhile, still a signal on the euro ensembles for that low offshore early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Right, nobody is disagreeing that the pattern is unusual for December. However, I think two things are occurring that are throwing some mets in a loop with forecasts. The NAO is very + and will stay that way through the month I think. And two, the massive GOAK trough extending through AK helping to torch Canada. These patterns don't just vanish. It will take some work. Yup, takes time. I think calls for pattern change mid month are going to need to be pushed back indefinitely. Hopefully we can turn this thing around. I think we will know in a few weeks if this is going go be a disaster or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Yup, takes time. I think calls for pattern change mid month are going to need to be pushed back indefinitely. Hopefully we can turn this thing around. I think we will know in a few weeks if this is going go be a disaster or not Well I can't give a date, but all you need is a little relaxation which could happen around that time. The pattern is ok if shoved west several hundred miles or so. Just turn off the Pac Jet a bit and you'll have money in the bank to work with across Canada (that being cold). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 God.. Those types of nonsensical posts are like nails on a chalkboard. I'd rather gouge my eyeballs out with a spoon than read that crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 God.. Those types of nonsensical posts are like nails on a chalkboard. I'd rather gouge my eyeballs out with a spoon than read that crap What posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 What posts?Not yours. The crap about postponing indefinitely and in a few weeks knowing if winter is cancelled when people have painstakingly laid out how things should progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Yup, takes time. I think calls for pattern change mid month are going to need to be pushed back indefinitely. Hopefully we can turn this thing around. I think we will know in a few weeks if this is going go be a disaster or not A disaster for the Whole Winter....is that what you are saying/thinking??? Or just December?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Meanwhile, still a signal on the euro ensembles for that low offshore early next week. They are pretty decent looking actually for CNE/NNE and perhaps even interior SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 A disaster for the Whole Winter....is that what you are saying/thinking??? Or just December?? The month of December mostly. We will know within the next few weeks if things may shake our favorably towards the end of the month. The consensus seems to be favorable still for the far long range. I dont live in fantasy land though, for the foreseeable future it looks pretty crapy. The jury is still out on late DEC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 They are pretty decent looking actually for CNE/NNE and perhaps even interior SNE. That's not a quick 12hr event either as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Hold off on the winter calls on 12/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 That's not a quick 12hr event either as modeled. Nice, protracted soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Are there any similarities pattern wise to the Jan 1998 icestorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 That's not a quick 12hr event either as modeled. There's meaurable QPF for like 60-72 hours straight worth of 6 hr frames on the mean...that's pretty good for an ensemble mean this far out. Also, the high is in a good spot with good cold in S Quebec...our antecedent airmass kind of stinks, but if you are advecting some of that very dry air in from the good high to the north, then things can happen...esp over the interior. Still a ways out obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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