jamesnichols89 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 One member of the 00z GFS ensemble individual members shows a monster nor'easter where the northern stream disturbance phases in with the southern stream disturbance to create a mega storm. It has colder air pouring into the cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I'm talking about the next 10-15 days though. I agree if we can pump up the EPO ridging, it would get dumped down. That's why earlier I said it's good that the cold didn't leave nrn Canada. Ah, gotcha. Hey, get a load of the oper. GFS near 2-day ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 One member of the 00z GFS ensemble individual members shows a monster nor'easter where the northern stream disturbance phases in with the southern stream disturbance to create a mega storm. It has colder air pouring into the cyclone. You deserve a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I'm lost about the potential ice/snow/winter storm. Is it this weekend or further out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Well Doug, the Tropics are still technically winning out if its Nino forcing thats overwhelming the pattern. I'm wondering if I just mis-timed the tropical progression/influences in general the last week or so. Been on the train for a -epo driven cold shot in mid-dec for a while now, but that hypothesis needs to be adjusted with the overwhelming agreement on classic Dec nino look across the pac/north america by 11-15 day...Ventrice posted this Euro forecast of VP-200 back on Wed and it made me pretty uneasy about those initial expectations. Looks like you could argue we have some west pac/dateline forcing right now from lead KW that is helping maintain some better alaskan blocking this week than originally forecast 10 days ago (hence the colder week being realized here).. then that forecast pushes -VP 200 across the entire Pacific basin and that would appear to support the powerful extended pac jet, broad low pressure anomaly into the GOA that guidance has now into mid-Dec vp 200 12-1-14.PNG I'm sort of kicking myself today. The +NAO in Dec has been a pretty well accepted forecast for weeks now, and I dont think I gave it enough credit. We were always kind of relying on more Pacific driven cold if it was going to come in Dec. I think a year like 1986 deserved a little more credit as an analog here given how well it worked for November P.S. I still believe the immediate East Coast manages to stay normal to cooler even through this nino-esque pattern as we hone in closer...just the widespread -epo cold shot thoughts by mid-dec need to take a back seat for the time being. Yeah but isnt it alarming that the same gfs runs which have shown it propogating around to 7-8-1 are showing the blowtorch nino like pattern across NA as that's going on? Yeah I definitely worded that poorly But what I meant to say was seasonal tropical forcing (ENSO) vs intraseasonal tropical forcing (MJO). Perhaps what's going on is that the stable stratospheric PV, combined with the seasonal tropical forcing from ENSO in December (GOA trough, blowtorch Canada) is simply overridding any MJO influence. It just seems strange, though, because the GFS/GEFS is pretty robust with the wave. It's almost as if there is no influence at all, which I also think is a stretch. But as Will said, models might just be having a hard time resolving the "conflict" in forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 One member of the 00z GFS ensemble individual members shows a monster nor'easter where the northern stream disturbance phases in with the southern stream disturbance to create a mega storm. It has colder air pouring into the cyclone. Yup; that's HWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Doesn't really matter...likely won't happen Jesus, what is it with the ****ty answers to people's questions today? To answer the original question, depends on what guidance you believe exactly, but generally this weekend looks to be the timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Jesus, what is it with the ****ty answers to people's questions today? To answer the original question, depends on what guidance you believe exactly, but generally this weekend looks to be the timeframe. My bad...yes this weekend...however low confidence that this would actually be an ice storm of any significance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Euro is certainly showing potential today...it's a good storm for the NNE mountains, and it might even give interior SNE a bit of wintry precip. Esp at the onset. Quite a ways out though...it's delayed about a day later than when the GFS and GGEM have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Euro is certainly showing potential today...it's a good storm for the NNE mountains, and it might even give interior SNE a bit of wintry precip. Esp at the onset. Quite a ways out though...it's delayed about a day later than when the GFS and GGEM have it. When is this potential event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I'm not sure I'd ever be "alarmed" at anything the long range GEFS show. But I get what you are saying. They might be having trouble resolving the conflicting signals of the ridging over the GOA and even to the eastern Aleutians that is typical in phase 7 and the base state of the Aleutian Low in El Nino...esp in Dec. At any rate, I guess we'll see what happens as we get closer. Lol yeah maybe alarmed was a poor word choice. But to bring up something HM mentioned to me, Extending the Pac Jet via a MT when the background state is Nino is not necessarily a good thing..It can shove the low anomaly into the GOA. Isn't it possible this "MJO" progression is doing just that in this instance? If the GFS is wrong with the MJO stuff, I tend to think it would be because its forecast progression into 7-8-1 is wrong (that is a bias after all), and not that it is wrong in how it handles the downstream forecast pattern effects from the MJO 7-8-1...Idk if that makes sense, but am open to any thoughts on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Euro is certainly showing potential today...it's a good storm for the NNE mountains, and it might even give interior SNE a bit of wintry precip. Esp at the onset. Quite a ways out though...it's delayed about a day later than when the GFS and GGEM have it. I'm pretty disinterested in this one. I'll be on the sidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 When is this potential event? Anywhere between Saturday and Tuesday...the southern stream impulse(s) responsible for it are not moving very fast and are kind of diffuse. So model guidance has been uncertain on how/when the thing actually develops...they all have it though at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 When is this potential event? Read further up this page and you'll get all you need to know(This weekend sometime, model timing differs though on exactly when). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I'm pretty disinterested in this one. I'll be on the sidelines. Yes, quite likely. I'll still be tracking it though for the possibility this does sneak into the ORH hills or even your area...and of course for CNE/NNE ski areas now that I have started skiing again semi-regularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I'd be interested to see what MJO phase 6-7-8 composites look like for Nino background states only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Lol yeah maybe alarmed was a poor word choice. But to bring up something HM mentioned to me, Extending the Pac Jet via a MT when the background state is Nino is not necessarily a good thing..It can shove the low anomaly into the GOA. Isn't it possible this "MJO" progression is doing just that in this instance? If the GFS is wrong with the MJO stuff, I tend to think it would be because its forecast progression into 7-8-1 is wrong (that is a bias after all), and not that it is wrong in how it handles the downstream forecast pattern effects from the MJO 7-8-1...Idk if that makes sense, but am open to any thoughts on that. The way I look at it is, if we go right around the horn, aren't we just keeping the forcing moving across the Pacific ocean, thus keeping the pattern sort of continuing...maybe perhaps weakening the Canadian blowtorch? I'd rather the forcing try to push into the dateline and then maybe reemerge further west again. It's also Nino climo to retro the low a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Yes, quite likely. I'll still be tracking it though for the possibility this does sneak into the ORH hills or even your area...and of course for CNE/NNE ski areas now that I have started skiing again semi-regularly. Yea, I mean it is a weather forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I'm still going to track this event for the weekend into next week because there is a chance it turns into a mega storm according to one of the GEFS members which phases the northern stream trough into the southern stream disturbance. EURO doesn't phase the two, but its close in doing so, and possible that in the next few runs starts to show this happening, especially with a +PNA, more digging of the northern stream trough is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I'm still going to track this event for the weekend into next week because there is a chance it turns into a mega storm according to one of the GEFS members which phases the northern stream trough into the southern stream disturbance. EURO doesn't phase the two, but its close in doing so, and possible that in the next few runs starts to show this happening, especially with a +PNA, more digging of the northern stream trough is likely. We salute you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 We salute you. Whenever there is an event waiting to happen and the ensemble individual members are not in any kind of agreement than all options are still on the table and it won't take much for the models to sniff out the +PNA ridging out west and northern stream troughing. Whenever we have this type of ridging out west, one needs to watch the degree of digging to which the northern stream trough does dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Was just looking at horror winters 97-98, 06-07 (well some snow here in Feb and March), 11-12. Don't think were going there, so the dullness could be worse. Who knows, we may end up with a December 92 event in the midst of an otherwise mildish December (fantasy storm situation, cut off low brought 32 inches to ORH). Just rambling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The euro station plots show the 850s staying near +1 even in BDR for the duration of the event. It makes me wonder what the boundary temps will be like...wind direction will be key down here. BTW, can I post maps from our own American Wx pay site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Was just looking at horror winters 97-98, 06-07 (well some snow here in Feb), 11-12. Don't think were going there, so the dullness could be worse. Who knows, we may end up with a December 92 event in the midst of an otherwise mildish December (fantasy storm situation, cut off low brought 32 inches to ORH). Just rambling. This isn't the same pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The way I look at it is, if we go right around the horn, aren't we just keeping the forcing moving across the Pacific ocean, thus keeping the pattern sort of continuing...maybe perhaps weakening the Canadian blowtorch? I'd rather the forcing try to push into the dateline and then maybe reemerge further west again. It's also Nino climo to retro the low a bit too. HM has a better way with words with this stuff than I do lol "Sometimes a jet extension from a +EA MT or enhanced baroclinicity can bump the EPO up...being the momentum that pushes Aleutian low east...in a La Nina background state, however, it usually is a cold signal...pushing the Aleutian High east, dropping EPO" I think that could be whats happening here with this MJO progression in the near term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 We salute you.That 1 GEFS member was the only one to initialize the Gulf Stream correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 brutal. thankfully it's only 12/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 This isn't the same pattern. For which, all? Or Dec 92? That's the problem with rambling--too many examples....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 For which, all? Or Dec 92? That's the problem with rambling--too many examples....lol Dec '92 was a crappy +AO pattern...we got lucky in it...but this pattern isn't the same as '92. Doesn't mean we still can't get lucky. One thing in common both patterns had was strong Quebec high pressure...that's the one feature that may give us a marginal event...or perhaps up north. At least it's better than 2011/2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I have to say.. It's not nearly as enjoyable as it used to be around here.,we've rehashed the reasons why, but some of the fun has vanished . It was pointed out earlier that I was focusing on a low chance percentage.,that'sr. I'm always glass half full.. Not half empty. I look for what possible good can come from a not ideal situation while acknowledging the chance of the not ideal occuring is also present. That's my mindset. And it's worked well for me over the years. I'm not asking anyone to Agree with me.. Just that I'm allowed to post possible outcomes JB has a couple of interesting tweets regarding next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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