CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The high is like 1045...I'm wondering if icing could be an issue too in some spots. The column cools..maybe ice to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Originally it looked like two events and maybe the 10-12 would be it, but the 12z run seems to be more this weekend. If anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 I think we'll have some nice signals in guidance by 12/8-10. Till the enjoy the comfy days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Pretty muchIt's like Forky is actually on our side by posting those lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Up here it just looks like a 3 day event as the low hangs around a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 It's gonna be hard to get warmth with HP overhead, but that isn't really the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Thanks, that helps! Sorry if it was a stupid question... but I do appreciate every bit of learning Not a problem, sorry you got a stupid answer from someone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I see what they are doing. The ensembles are still trying to involve a second shot of energy after the first low. The GFS op sort of wants none of it and just brings the low north after Sunday. Well if you are gonna sneak an event in, you'll need timing and latitude. Might have that on the 9-10 or so. Signal has been there for a couple of days, but it's about 7-8 days out now so somewhat out of clown range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The 12Z GFS looks like it is desperately trying to retrograde the GOA low from Day 12-16 but the problem then becomes the PV is gone out of Canada into Greenland...may ultimately need the current warming in the stratosphere to resolve that problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Originally it looked like two events and maybe the 10-12 would be it, but the 12z run seems to be more this weekend. If anything. The column cools..maybe ice to snow? I think this will def be something to watch for CNE/NNE...we'll see about areas like ORH or even into Ray's area. You get that very strong polar high, even if modified, and it can advect a lot of dry air down. You end up with mini paste bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 While South of the Mass/CT border is out of luck ..this is exactly why you don't mail it in or shut off any time period in any December..can still get wintry events in a not so favorable pattern..hopefully you guys that live up there can get something out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 While South of the Mass/CT border is out of luck ..this is exactly why you don't mail it in or shut off any time period in any December..can still get wintry events in a not so favorable pattern..hopefully you guys that live up there can get something out of this pretty good ice storm as depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I think this will def be something to watch for CNE/NNE...we'll see about areas like ORH or even into Ray's area. You get that very strong polar high, even if modified, and it can advect a lot of dry air down. You end up with mini paste bombs. It's a multi-day event there. Definitely latitude deal perhaps. Maybe this is the classic fitting and timing of something amid a crappy pattern..although I would argue the pattern is more hostile next week compared to this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Pretty much now show us the maps valid for the timeframe i posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 It's gonna be hard to get warmth with HP overhead, but that isn't really the issue. That screams ice to me next weekend in CNE. That may get interesting with shallow old air and good moisture. Turns into a little upslope event in the end, I'd approve haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 pretty good ice storm as depicted Yeah I think someone up there is in for a good ice event..while we look in with envy while it's 34-35 and raining..or at least I'll be envious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 While South of the Mass/CT border is out of luck ..this is exactly why you don't mail it in or shut off any time period in any December..can still get wintry events in a not so favorable pattern..hopefully you guys that live up there can get something out of this Well that's a given. It's still lousy, but it's NNE. I mean even in 2011-2012 they still got snow. PF will get his upslope I'm sure too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 now show us the maps valid for the timeframe i posted Those are 5 day average maps silly boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Regardless, it's rather far out and we'll what other guidance does. Euro ensemble had something too although a bit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Somehow I'm the bad guy for posting about a not so favorable pattern. If you don't have anything good to say, it's better to say nothing at all. Looks like snow. Maybe I can eek out an inch before it gets washed away. 27.8/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Wouldn't be the first time where an event snuck past the goalie due to the in house bickering. I'd watch this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 It's a multi-day event there. Definitely latitude deal perhaps. Maybe this is the classic fitting and timing of something amid a crappy pattern..although I would argue the pattern is more hostile next week compared to this weekend. 925mb temps here never go above 0C up here through that event, even though it torches briefly at 850mb and up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 925mb temps here never go above 0C up here through that event, even though it torches briefly at 850mb and up. It's always hard this time if year to torch aloft on the favorable side of a 700 low. In my head, I take the KFIT sounding for example and probably take the temps down a bit. Take the same setup and give it to the euro, I bet euro would be a hair colder. Yes it's a little old fashioned meteorology, but it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 925mb temps here never go above 0C up here through that event, even though it torches briefly at 850mb and up. The one thing to watch is for the models to cool the mid-levels as we get closer...I've seen that happen often with a stout polar high to the north. Models under-estimate the dry air that gets advected down and you end up with mid-level temps like 2 or 3C colder than what maybe was progged days earlier. Latitude is usually premium in that type of setup closer to that source region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 What really warms up the column for the Southern New England region south of the MA pike is really the northern stream energy. It is too far north and doesn't dig far enough south to cut off the warming at 850mb. However I think as has been the trend lately for the system to trend colder and dig much further south than currently modeled. Time will tell for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The one thing to watch is for the models to cool the mid-levels as we get closer...I've seen that happen often with a stout polar high to the north. Models under-estimate the dry air that gets advected down and you end up with mid-level temps like 2 or 3C colder than what maybe was progged days earlier. Latitude is usually premium in that type of setup closer to that source region. Interesting...at least that event is something to watch. The high position looks good for down for your area with a very noticeable wedge set-up into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I didn't read the story, but I still lol'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 MJO should at least make it into phase 6, which is good because that re-fires the -EPO....if it goes into the COD after that happens, it's fine...since the backround state will want to a +PNA anyway. Yeah but isnt it alarming that the same gfs runs which have shown it propogating around to 7-8-1 are showing the blowtorch nino like pattern across NA as that's going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 Weenie flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Yeah but isnt it alarming that the same gfs runs which have shown it propogating around to 7-8-1 are showing the blowtorch nino like pattern across NA as that's going on? I'm not sure I'd ever be "alarmed" at anything the long range GEFS show. But I get what you are saying. They might be having trouble resolving the conflicting signals of the ridging over the GOA and even to the eastern Aleutians that is typical in phase 7 and the base state of the Aleutian Low in El Nino...esp in Dec. At any rate, I guess we'll see what happens as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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