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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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What, it's not static dude... The cold plumes are migrating through the field in just periodicity.  If we get a +PNAP flow structure, trust me- BRRR

 

I'm talking about the next 10-15 days though. I agree if we can pump up the EPO ridging, it would get dumped down. That's why earlier I said it's good that the cold didn't leave nrn Canada.

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I don't know what to tell you. I really don't. The pattern sucks for two weeks. Sure if you get off of 1045 highs working with 850 temps near 0C..then have at it. It's not even favorable for much storminess at all, nevermind snow. Like I said, if you get something timed right..go for it. I wouldn't rule it out..but overall..it stinks. Maybe this weekend is a little snow for the ORH hills or something like that, but region wide as a whole..I don't know how you can see this as being remotely good. I'm sure you are salivating for a 6" paste job to start throwing AWTs in my face.

I'm not expecting any big snows or significant events. All I'm expecting is a near normal pattern with the POSSIBILITY of a few smaller wintry events IF TIMED RIGHT. There's some talk in some circles(not you) of this being a very mild pattern with 0 winter chances and December being snowless

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Not sure what the issue is. Most mets and virtually all modeling agrees with that look for the month. 

Yeah that outlook looks fine to me. It's not a torch look by any means(which I don't think is being called for), just a generally mild pattern probably +1.5-+2 or so. Could flip towards the end of the month and bring those numbers down a bit(and in fact I would say that's relatively likely), but for the periods in question(6-10 and 8-14), it's pretty dead on IMO.

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I miss like 12 hrs of posting and so much goes on. Even during boring weather times, the train keeps chugging along.

Winter will come, patience. I think a cold and snowy November raised too many expectations. It's not gonna be a balls to the wall winter. It rarely is. Even the best ones have lulls. So in the meantime, do what you can to get by...whether that's watching re runs of Sienfield or a heavy dose of xanax and red wine.

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Oy.

 

Alex, The COD is an abbreviation for the Circle of Death or the position in the middle of the MJO chart. I believe(and someone correct me if I'm wrong), that that represents the MJO in it's weakest point(IE, the further to the edge of the chart it is, the stronger the MJO is in it's respective phase, when it's in the COD, it isn't strong enough to be classified as being in any one particular phase and as a result is just sort of in the background.

 

Thanks, that helps! Sorry if it was a stupid question... but I do appreciate every bit of learning

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One of the main issues I think some people are having..is they look at those maps and see red and think it's a torch pattern. That's where most of the issues are stemming from. That's not a torch in New England as has been outlined. Nor is it cold.. It's normal

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D11.gif

 

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I'm having trouble understanding these maps, and unwilling to do any independent research to enrich my knowledge outside of this thread.

 

Do the yellowy orangey reddish blippity blobs dominating most of North America on these maps pertain in any way to temperatures that would be, compared with averages for this time of year in the same location, above normal?

 

Is that what we're driving at here? If so, this data would paint a very different picture from the "normal" which has apparently just been professed.

 

In order to resolve my faith in the message, I must then assume that, in weather terms, "above normal" is directly equal to "normal."

 

Please advise.

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