CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 What, it's not static dude... The cold plumes are migrating through the field in just periodicity. If we get a +PNAP flow structure, trust me- BRRR I'm talking about the next 10-15 days though. I agree if we can pump up the EPO ridging, it would get dumped down. That's why earlier I said it's good that the cold didn't leave nrn Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Kevin, if you want to be sure that see an accumulating snowfall before 12/20 or so, I suggest you drive up to the Whites tonight, find a nice motel/B and B to stay at, and enjoy their event. Would probably calm your mind quite a bit and you'd probably enjoy it also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I don't know what to tell you. I really don't. The pattern sucks for two weeks. Sure if you get off of 1045 highs working with 850 temps near 0C..then have at it. It's not even favorable for much storminess at all, nevermind snow. Like I said, if you get something timed right..go for it. I wouldn't rule it out..but overall..it stinks. Maybe this weekend is a little snow for the ORH hills or something like that, but region wide as a whole..I don't know how you can see this as being remotely good. I'm sure you are salivating for a 6" paste job to start throwing AWTs in my face. I'm not expecting any big snows or significant events. All I'm expecting is a near normal pattern with the POSSIBILITY of a few smaller wintry events IF TIMED RIGHT. There's some talk in some circles(not you) of this being a very mild pattern with 0 winter chances and December being snowless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 NOAA oh god, should we post their one month out look from Nov 1st? Not sure what the issue is. Most mets and virtually all modeling agrees with that look for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Somehow I'm the bad guy for posting about a not so favorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Not sure what the issue is. Most mets and virtually all modeling agrees with that look for the month. Yeah that outlook looks fine to me. It's not a torch look by any means(which I don't think is being called for), just a generally mild pattern probably +1.5-+2 or so. Could flip towards the end of the month and bring those numbers down a bit(and in fact I would say that's relatively likely), but for the periods in question(6-10 and 8-14), it's pretty dead on IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Not sure what the issue is. Most mets and virtually all modeling agrees with that look for the month. I agree on the first half, where are you seeing all modeling and mets agreeing on the second half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Sit back for a second, we are talking about the next two, maybe 3 weeks or so in December. Yes December, a time where winter sometimes does not set in. I feel like this is getting misconstrued as a signal to winter's demise or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I agree on the first half, where are you seeing all modeling and mets agreeing on the second half I didn't say anything about the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 And Ginx - no posting of the Euro Weeklies or any of that kind of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 gorgeous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 we could get a juicy rain event if a pac disturbance gets caught under the ridge and stalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I miss like 12 hrs of posting and so much goes on. Even during boring weather times, the train keeps chugging along. Winter will come, patience. I think a cold and snowy November raised too many expectations. It's not gonna be a balls to the wall winter. It rarely is. Even the best ones have lulls. So in the meantime, do what you can to get by...whether that's watching re runs of Sienfield or a heavy dose of xanax and red wine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 gorgeous Golfing in December....I approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Somehow I'm the bad guy for posting about a not so favorable pattern. That is what you get for being honest, Some would rather have you lie about the upcoming pattern to settle there worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 we could get a juicy rain event if a pac disturbance gets caught under the ridge and stalls Just thinking about it is making me wet right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 It's coldish today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 One of the main issues I think some people are having..is they look at those maps and see red and think it's a torch pattern. That's where most of the issues are stemming from. That's not a torch in New England as has been outlined. Nor is it cold.. It's normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Not sure I get the attitude, and the explanation sucks, but thanks You're at about 9 right now and I need you at about 3, okay? You're a peach, thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Not sure I get the attitude, and the explanation sucks, but thanks Anytime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Oy. Alex, The COD is an abbreviation for the Circle of Death or the position in the middle of the MJO chart. I believe(and someone correct me if I'm wrong), that that represents the MJO in it's weakest point(IE, the further to the edge of the chart it is, the stronger the MJO is in it's respective phase, when it's in the COD, it isn't strong enough to be classified as being in any one particular phase and as a result is just sort of in the background. Thanks, that helps! Sorry if it was a stupid question... but I do appreciate every bit of learning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I didn't say anything about the second half. Most mets and virtually all modeling agrees with that look for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 One of the main issues I think some people are having..is they look at those maps and see red and think it's a torch pattern. That's where most of the issues are stemming from. That's not a torch in New England as has been outlined. Nor is it cold.. It's normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 And Ginx - no posting of the Euro Weeklies or any of that kind of stuff. Really and where is that rule for stuff that was publically tweeted out in the public domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Yup..there's the mean..normal for New England. thanks for posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The GFS is really close to snow for nrn ORH county this weekend. Given the GFS thermal crap, it probably is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I'm having trouble understanding these maps, and unwilling to do any independent research to enrich my knowledge outside of this thread. Do the yellowy orangey reddish blippity blobs dominating most of North America on these maps pertain in any way to temperatures that would be, compared with averages for this time of year in the same location, above normal? Is that what we're driving at here? If so, this data would paint a very different picture from the "normal" which has apparently just been professed. In order to resolve my faith in the message, I must then assume that, in weather terms, "above normal" is directly equal to "normal." Please advise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The GFS is really close to snow for nrn ORH county this weekend. Given the GFS thermal crap, it probably is. The high is like 1045...I'm wondering if icing could be an issue too in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 In this crap pattern, I like the odds up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Yup..there's the mean..normal for New England. thanks for posting Pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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