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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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Happy TG...and cheers to a nice start this year! Seems that the end of the 12z GFS shows a neutral to maybe a slightly negative, East-based NAO. As Tolland and Coastal have said, kind of meh. However, imo it's still possible to sneak in something marginal with that setup. In the meantime, hopefully we can work on a N Atlantic block for Santa and beyond. Just close the shades for early Dec. And we'll be all right.

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I wouldn't sweat it too much, Jerry. At worst you wait.

 

Patience is going to be needed here. I think people get a bit upset/frustrated because us sickos wait ALLLL spring, summer, & fall for this, and when we can tell that the first 2 weeks of Dec don't look good it is a bit bothersome.

 

...But we wait...liking around the 20th. 

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Patience is going to be needed here. I think people get a bit upset/frustrated because us sickos wait ALLLL spring, summer, & fall for this, and when we can tell that the first 2 weeks of Dec don't look good it is a bit bothersome.

 

...But we wait...liking around the 20th. 

The first 2 weeks don't look terrible. It's not a warm pattern..Couple cold fronts, some wintry precip Wed nite..and then we'll see what happens after that..Ensembles still say around the 10th

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HM bangs the drums to mute

 

  1. Early December US torch? Lol

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    @antmasiello Muted and stunted again. Where have we seen this before?

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Euro ensembles look kind of ugly for a while...but next week does look a bit colder than earlier after our Monday furnace.

 

They got better compared to yesterday, but still need to work on the look for sure. GEFS aren't too bad. 

 

I did a comparison to the last 10 days. One feature that continues to always trend better is the block north of AK. Hopefully that continues. 

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We've all pretty much tossed them as bad as they've performed over the last 60 days and are using the GEFS/GGEM ens..

Lol.

They sniffed out this upcoming mild period very well. If it's inside of 10 days they've been pretty good. Caution beyond that...11-15 has been poor.

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