CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 I know you have DT..no worries. I don't need any accolades, just seems like this so far is timing out well. As good as you can expect for longer range. I do see the possibility that we wait longer of the EC is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Happy TG...and cheers to a nice start this year! Seems that the end of the 12z GFS shows a neutral to maybe a slightly negative, East-based NAO. As Tolland and Coastal have said, kind of meh. However, imo it's still possible to sneak in something marginal with that setup. In the meantime, hopefully we can work on a N Atlantic block for Santa and beyond. Just close the shades for early Dec. And we'll be all right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 According to some of the best bloggers I read, we might have to be patient until about 12/20 or so. according to the best bloggers I read, after Dec 10 things could get interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 It's never good to judge a pattern by the GFS op. Both 00z GEFS and GEM ensembles looked pretty good. I wouldn't worry about the EC yet, but there is probably no coincidence that the EC wants a slower MJO wave movement to the east, hence lagging the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2014 Author Share Posted November 27, 2014 Man the euro ensembles were disappointing this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 I wouldn't sweat it too much, Jerry. At worst you wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2014 Author Share Posted November 27, 2014 I wouldn't sweat it too much, Jerry. At worst you wait. Yes. And maybe my trip to Chicago 12/11-14 will occur delay free...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Yes. And maybe my trip to Chicago 12/11-14 will occur delay free...lol. I hope this isn't the start of a new phenomenon...."The Fella Effect". Deep winter only happens when and where Jerry travels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2014 Author Share Posted November 27, 2014 Models tend to bring change too fast. I think deep winter waits to beyond 12/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Models tend to bring change too fast. I think deep winter waits to beyond 12/15.Euro 11-15 has been a disaster, Tday weekend torch fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 This is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Euro has us end November cold... 12z ECM has sub-zero lows for the mountain valleys on Saturday of VT/NH/ME. With the aid of snowpack, that'll be a chilly night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 I wouldn't sweat it too much, Jerry. At worst you wait. Patience is going to be needed here. I think people get a bit upset/frustrated because us sickos wait ALLLL spring, summer, & fall for this, and when we can tell that the first 2 weeks of Dec don't look good it is a bit bothersome. ...But we wait...liking around the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Patience is going to be needed here. I think people get a bit upset/frustrated because us sickos wait ALLLL spring, summer, & fall for this, and when we can tell that the first 2 weeks of Dec don't look good it is a bit bothersome. ...But we wait...liking around the 20th. The first 2 weeks don't look terrible. It's not a warm pattern..Couple cold fronts, some wintry precip Wed nite..and then we'll see what happens after that..Ensembles still say around the 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2014 Author Share Posted November 28, 2014 Weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 HM bangs the drums to mute Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 2h2 hours ago Early December US torch? Lol 0 replies0 retweets0 favorites Reply Retweet Favorite More Kevin @TollandKev 2h2 hours ago @antmasiello Muted and stunted again. Where have we seen this before? 0 replies0 retweets0 favorites Reply Retweet Favorite More Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 2h2 hours ago @TollandKev exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Oil is down 7 percent today huge drop a torch would almost be welcome to drop them further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Weeklies Poo-Poo through week 3. Much better week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Not a bad Euro look at all. Wintry event looking likely Wed nite into Thurs.. 10th on we good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 It is true, torch mutation going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Looks like a weak SWFE for interior MA and esp NNE next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Looks like a weak SWFE for interior MA and esp NNE next week. Yeah actually it appears we all get snow to ice Tues into Wed..and then another cold blast..Cold high in place..and with residual snowpack should be tough to scour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Yeah actually it appears we all get snow to ice Tues into Wed..and then another cold blast..Cold high in place..and with residual snowpack should be tough to scour It goes to rain. Too mild this time of year, but snow and/or ice to start I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 It goes to rain. Too mild this time of year, but snow and/or ice to start I think. Debatable.. plenty of time to sort detes.. At any rate..house is now decorated for Xmas and heading out to cut down the tree today in deep mid winter conditions. Seasons in seasons continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Euro ensembles look kind of ugly for a while...but next week does look a bit colder than earlier after our Monday furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Euro ensembles look kind of ugly for a while...but next week does look a bit colder than earlier after our Monday furnace. We've all pretty much tossed them as bad as they've performed over the last 60 days and are using the GEFS/GGEM ens.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Euro ensembles look kind of ugly for a while...but next week does look a bit colder than earlier after our Monday furnace. They got better compared to yesterday, but still need to work on the look for sure. GEFS aren't too bad. I did a comparison to the last 10 days. One feature that continues to always trend better is the block north of AK. Hopefully that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 We've all pretty much tossed them as bad as they've performed over the last 60 days and are using the GEFS/GGEM ens.. Lol. They sniffed out this upcoming mild period very well. If it's inside of 10 days they've been pretty good. Caution beyond that...11-15 has been poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Lol. They sniffed out this upcoming mild period very well. If it's inside of 10 days they've been pretty good. Caution beyond that...11-15 has been poor. But they did have an extended torch if I recall..not 2 days in the 40's..with more cold afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Models tend to bring change too fast. I think deep winter waits to beyond 12/15. in Taiwan 12-6 to 12-12 so hopefully I don't miss any storms Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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