Zeus Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Can someone explain what this means? For us not so savvy folks . What's the cod? You're at about 9 right now and I need you at about 3, okay? You're a peach, thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 That's how I look at it. Yeah, a +PNA with no cold air in southern/central Canada isn't nearly as useful...but if we have renewed the source region, then the +PNA will be more effective. I would really love to see signs of a -NAO though...hopefully we can disturb that setup when we go to phase 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 What does the museum have from Chief Massasoit's scribblings of December +ENSO events from 1621-1640? unfortunately its in book form and since no pictures you would have trouble understanding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 If you look at the progression of the pattern, there is at least some hope that a flip will occur around mid-month...perhaps leading toward Christmas week. The Aleutian low which has sort of parked itself in the GOA and almost over AK (turning the EPO positive over the next week) should retrograde...the MJO is also forecast to fly around through phases 4/5/6 over the next week to ten days and once we get into phase 6/7/8, the pattern would be much more favorable for cold and snow chances. The MJO wave is strong...so hopefully it holds together into those latter phases. Models typically have a lot of trouble dealing with the MJO...especially if the MJO gives a conflicting signal to the base state. It is probably one reason why they have been pretty bad in the past couple weeks. I think if the GEF's derived PNA index is correct (timing...) things can motivate sooner, and not be well modeled at this time (i.e., utterly invisible for now.) Remember folks, strong modalities in the teleconnectors means there is going to be trouble with the model performance. Right now the PNA is negative, the MJO seems in sink (tho there's arguably a lag there to some degree); yet the GEFs at both agencies jolts the biggest atmospheric index (spatially/mass-field) on the planet some 2.5 total Standard Deviations, from negative to positive ... beginning now, out to D10. It's difficult to imagine that can take place without some kind of representation in/of the flow over North America as that unfolds; if it does. However, the CPC shows every member tightly clustered with very minimal spread, so I'd bank on a PNA index rise one way or the other. It's akin to a "threshold" sort of question in this. The mass-fields over the Pac start moving into a +PNA, and eventually it stresses the models to a breaking point (this is all a metaphor really...), and they may raise western heights and tank us back east ...just not yet having done so. IF when that happens? All forecasts up to that time will/would need to be redrafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 unfortunately its in book form and since no pictures you would have trouble understanding it. It's all in good fun. I know you are looking at it from a thermal standpoint, but the big picture is more of the issue. I guess if you don't like torches it's good, but the general pattern for us here in New England is not good. Honestly, I don't see how that is debatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 And certainly you are entitled to express your opinions. I believe there are times when some members are a bit cautious about expressing their opinions because they fear being ridiculed. As you mentioned it is a hobby. And hobbies are meant to be enjoyed.I have to say.. It's not nearly as enjoyable as it used to be around here.,we've rehashed the reasons why, but some of the fun has vanished . It was pointed out earlier that I was focusing on a low chance percentage.,that'sr. I'm always glass half full.. Not half empty. I look for what possible good can come from a not ideal situation while acknowledging the chance of the not ideal occuring is also present. That's my mindset. And it's worked well for me over the years. I'm not asking anyone to Agree with me.. Just that I'm allowed to post possible outcomes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 You're at about 9 right now and I need you at about 3, okay? You're a peach, thanks in advance. Oy. Alex, The COD is an abbreviation for the Circle of Death or the position in the middle of the MJO chart. I believe(and someone correct me if I'm wrong), that that represents the MJO in it's weakest point(IE, the further to the edge of the chart it is, the stronger the MJO is in it's respective phase, when it's in the COD, it isn't strong enough to be classified as being in any one particular phase and as a result is just sort of in the background. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I have to say.. It's not nearly as enjoyable as it used to be around here.,we've rehashed the reasons why, but die of the fun has vanished . It was pointed out earlier that I was focusing on a low chance percentage.,that'sr. I'm akwAts glass half full.. Not half empty. I look for what possible good can come from a not ideal situation while acknowledging the chance of the not ideal occuring is also present. That's my mindset. And it's worked well for me over the years. I'm not asking anyone to Agree with me.. Just that I'm allowed to post possible outcomes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I think if the GEF's derived PNA index is correct (timing...) things can motivate sooner, and not be well modeled at this time (i.e., utterly invisible for now.) Remember folks, strong modalities in the teleconnectors means there is going to be trouble with the model performance. Right now the PNA is negative, the MJO seems in sink (tho there's arguably a lag there to some degree); yet the GEFs at both agencies jolts the biggest atmospheric index (spatially/mass-field) on the planet some 2.5 total Standard Deviations, from negative to positive ... beginning now, out to D10. It's difficult to imagine that can take place without some kind of representation in/of the flow over North America as that unfolds; if it does. However, the CPC shows every member tightly clustered with very minimal spread, so I'd bank on a PNA index rise one way or the other. It's akin to a "threshold" sort of question in this. The mass-fields over the Pac start moving into a +PNA, and eventually it stresses the models to a breaking point (this is all a metaphor really...), and they may raise western heights and tank us back east ...just not yet having done so. IF when that happens? All forecasts up to that time will/would need to be redrafted. The PNA spike you are referring to is what may give us a shot at a winter event around Dec 10-12...but the overall state of the pattern at that point is lacking in a cold source region, so we are working with a PNA spike with modified polar air. But yeah, things may briefly get a bit colder in that time and we may try and threaten a marginal winter event. I was talking more about a complete shakeup in the north Pacific in the EPO regions and with the Aleutian Low retrograding back to a more ideal position to refresh Canada with arctic air. That would not look to happen until post-day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 we have a separate thread for this. Word! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 It's all in good fun. I know you are looking at it from a thermal standpoint, but the big picture is more of the issue. I guess if you don't like torches it's good, but the general pattern for us here in New England is not good. Honestly, I don't see how that is debatable. Lol I kid, I agree but doesn't seem unusual for early Dec, seems pretty climo slightly above. I don't think of the first half of Dec as a particularly snowy time, get me to the week before Christmas week and then its when I expect shots of snow and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I have to say.. It's not nearly as enjoyable as it used to be around here.,we've rehashed the reasons why, but die of the fun has vanished . It was pointed out earlier that I was focusing on a low chance percentage.,that'sr. I'm akwAts glass half full.. Not half empty. I look for what possible good can come from a not ideal situation while acknowledging the chance of the not ideal occuring is also present. That's my mindset. And it's worked well for me over the years. I'm not asking anyone to Agree with me.. Just that I'm allowed to post possible outcomes Or we could actually remove ourselves from fantasy-land and talk about reality. It's a weather forum. It's not always unicorns and butterflies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 A diatribe also means a prolonged discourse, no negativity intended Ah, you went ancient greek on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Lol I kid, I agree but doesn't seem like unusual for early Dec, seems pretty climo slightly above. I don't think of the first half of Dec as a particularly snowy month, get me to the week before Christmas week and then its when I expect shots of snow and cold. Yes I think most are talking about first half anyways. But, we know things do not change abruptly, so one can assume it may go into week 3 at least. It would be silly to surmise winter is somehow "busting" from two weeks in December...which at any moment I expect to hear from the typical posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Or we could actually remove ourselves from fantasy-land and talk about reality. It's a weather forum. It's not always unicorns and butterflies.Its also not about looking for negatives and trying to find other alternative quitter solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The PNA spike you are referring to is what may give us a shot at a winter event around Dec 10-12...but the overall state of the pattern at that point is lacking in a cold source region, so we are working with a PNA spike with modified polar air. But yeah, things may briefly get a bit colder in that time and we may try and threaten a marginal winter event. I was talking more about a complete shakeup in the north Pacific in the EPO regions and with the Aleutian Low retrograding back to a more ideal position to refresh Canada with arctic air. That would not look to happen until post-day 10. Really? I'm seeing models initializing massive areas over Canada, between the 50th and 70th parallels, having 850mb T of -20 to -30C! That's our source. If we tip the flow over the western Canadian shield into a deeper layered NW direction, that's plenty sufficient in my estimation. we'll see. That's said, yeah, the EPO is a clad discussion point there.. We'd don't have one now, but having a nice MJO pass through the 6th wave space may change that, given time, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Ah, you went ancient greek on me. yo, I never go Greek on anyone, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Really? I'm seeing models initializing massive areas over Canada, between the 50th and 70th parallels, having 850mb T of -20 to -30C! That's our source. If we tip the flow over the western Canadian shield into a deeper layered NW direction, that's plenty sufficient in my estimation. we'll see. Yeah but that area is shut off. Look at Hudson Bay. That's our air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Its also not about looking for negatives and trying to find other alternative quitter solutions Looking for negatives? It is one massive negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Ah, you went ancient greek on me. He's become fluent ever since studying the winters during the Roman Warm Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Yeah but that area is shut off. Look at Hudson Bay. That's our air. Yea not torch of ages but not cold, man look at Siberia, that dam breaks,still think last two weeks here is when it starts. Patience again grasshoppers. Pretty typical evolution, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Looking for negatives? It is one massive negative. There's been literally hundreds of posts the last couple days from mets and others saying the pattern is not that bad and we've got cold highs that can potentially help with some wintry events..like the one tonight..it's not all negative. it's only all negative if that's what you're focusing on. We've seen much, much worse patterns over the years in other winters..and who's to say the modeling is correct? Who's to say it doesn't change when the phoon recurves? How about posting some things that look good or that might be positive.. And posting" there aren't any" isn't an option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 There's been literally hundreds of posts the last couple days from mets and others saying the pattern is not that bad and we've got cold highs that can potentially help with some wintry events..like the one tonight..it's not all negative. it's only all negative if that's what you're focusing on. We've seen much, much worse patterns over the years in other winters..and who's to say the modeling is correct? Who's to say it doesn't change when the phoon recurves? How about posting some things that look good or that might be positive.. And posting" there aren't any" isn't an option He's just posting his meteoroloigcal opinion on the weather forum...it shouldn't bother you. If it does, maybe you need a new hobby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 He's become fluent ever since studying the winters during the Roman Warm Period. learn somethings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 There's been literally hundreds of posts the last couple days from mets and others saying the pattern is not that bad and we've got cold highs that can potentially help with some wintry events..like the one tonight..it's not all negative. it's only all negative if that's what you're focusing on. We've seen much, much worse patterns over the years in other winters..and who's to say the modeling is correct? Who's to say it doesn't change when the phoon recurves? How about posting some things that look good or that might be positive.. And posting" there aren't any" isn't an option Positive vibes!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 There's been literally hundreds of posts the last couple days from mets and others saying the pattern is not that bad and we've got cold highs that can potentially help with some wintry events..like the one tonight..it's not all negative. it's only all negative if that's what you're focusing on. We've seen much, much worse patterns over the years in other winters..and who's to say the modeling is correct? Who's to say it doesn't change when the phoon recurves? How about posting some things that look good or that might be positive.. And posting" there aren't any" isn't an option I don't know what to tell you. I really don't. The pattern sucks for two weeks. Sure if you get off of 1045 highs working with 850 temps near 0C..then have at it. It's not even favorable for much storminess at all, nevermind snow. Like I said, if you get something timed right..go for it. I wouldn't rule it out..but overall..it stinks. Maybe this weekend is a little snow for the ORH hills or something like that, but region wide as a whole..I don't know how you can see this as being remotely good. I'm sure you are salivating for a 6" paste job to start throwing AWTs in my face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The funny thing is that we all seem to have the same opinion. I'm sure Will feels the same. It's weather..it's out of our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Yeah but that area is shut off. Look at Hudson Bay. That's our air. What, it's not static dude... The cold plumes are migrating through the field in just periodicity. If we get a +PNAP flow structure, trust me- BRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I don't know what to tell you. I really don't. The pattern sucks for two weeks. Sure if you get off of 1045 highs working with 850 temps near 0C..then have at it. It's not even favorable for much storminess at all, nevermind snow. Like I said, if you get something timed right..go for it. I wouldn't rule it out..but overall..it stinks. Maybe this weekend is a little snow for the ORH hills or something like that, but region wide as a whole..I don't know how you can see this as being remotely good. I'm sure you are salivating for a 6" paste job to start throwing AWTs in my face. Weeks 2 and 3 for the Euro weeklies suck. I don't understand what Kevin is looking for. The pattern is pretty ugly. Big snow is still relatively tough for the CP for early December so given a somewhat hostile pattern there's not much to be excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 NOAA oh god, should we post their one month out look from Nov 1st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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