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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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My propane bill thanks you, honestly looks like climo to me ,don't understand all the angst .Would secretly hoping ball busting Rays diatribe wordsmith epically long involved winter forecast bust, make me a bad guy? lol

 No, it would make you an illiterate guy.

 

Reread what I said regarding now through Mid December.

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If you look at the progression of the pattern, there is at least some hope that a flip will occur around mid-month...perhaps leading toward Christmas week.

 

The Aleutian low which has sort of parked itself in the GOA and almost over AK (turning the EPO positive over the next week) should retrograde...the MJO is also forecast to fly around through phases 4/5/6 over the next week to ten days and once we get into phase 6/7/8, the pattern would be much more favorable for cold and snow chances. The MJO wave is strong...so hopefully it holds together into those latter phases.

 

Models typically have a lot of trouble dealing with the MJO...especially if the MJO gives a conflicting signal to the base state. It is probably one reason why they have been pretty bad in the past couple weeks.

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Paul Roundy's stuff has another wave similar to the dynamical models reemerging another near P6 is seems by the end of the month. That's usually a good -EPO signal. The caveat being tropical convection behavior is fickle..but there's some hope. We just need that low to retro a bit. We don't need a big blocking -NAO..but gotta get the cold into Canada and systems to dig southeast.

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Why do people get irritated? I'm expressing my opinion on a weather blog. If that bothers people it's probably time to find a new hobby

And  certainly you are entitled to express your opinions. I believe there are  times when some members are a bit cautious about expressing their opinions because they fear being ridiculed. As you mentioned it is a hobby. And hobbies are meant to be enjoyed.

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I guess ...not sure what people's problem is... ignoring nice advisory event for a lot from the OV to NE regions? Haven't the time to scan back pages but seems there's a pre-occupation for big ticket synoptics, when there are interesting meteorological happenings right now.

I also believe that NWS offices are going to have a problem getting this (bold below) to verify for Worcester Hills and western Middlesex Co, ...possibly down into N CT, too.

Rain, snow, and sleet, becoming all rain after 2am. Low around 31. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.

It's going to change and get above freezing [most likely], but these scenarios belay ...like, 90% of the events.

we have a separate thread for this.
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