J Paul Gordon Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Thanks, I earned it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 My propane bill thanks you, honestly looks like climo to me ,don't understand all the angst .Would secretly hoping ball busting Rays diatribe wordsmith epically long involved winter forecast bust, make me a bad guy? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 My propane bill thanks you, honestly looks like climo to me ,don't understand all the angst .Would secretly hoping ball busting Rays diatribe wordsmith epically long involved winter forecast bust, make me a bad guy? lol No, it would make you an illiterate guy. Reread what I said regarding now through Mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 If you look at the progression of the pattern, there is at least some hope that a flip will occur around mid-month...perhaps leading toward Christmas week. The Aleutian low which has sort of parked itself in the GOA and almost over AK (turning the EPO positive over the next week) should retrograde...the MJO is also forecast to fly around through phases 4/5/6 over the next week to ten days and once we get into phase 6/7/8, the pattern would be much more favorable for cold and snow chances. The MJO wave is strong...so hopefully it holds together into those latter phases. Models typically have a lot of trouble dealing with the MJO...especially if the MJO gives a conflicting signal to the base state. It is probably one reason why they have been pretty bad in the past couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 No, it would male you illiterate. Read what I said regarding now through Mid December. I mean' the rest of the winter, I am in step exactly with that Min Kampesque forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 In addition to what Will said, you will need to flush Canada a bit as well. That PNA leftover PAC junk will need to be flushed out and then refilled. Luckily the cold supply did not leave nrn Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Paul Roundy's stuff has another wave similar to the dynamical models reemerging another near P6 is seems by the end of the month. That's usually a good -EPO signal. The caveat being tropical convection behavior is fickle..but there's some hope. We just need that low to retro a bit. We don't need a big blocking -NAO..but gotta get the cold into Canada and systems to dig southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I mean' the rest of the winter, I am in step exactly with that Min Kampesque forecast. Oh....if you want to break balls for a winter forecast over a few mild days at the start of December, have at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 It's definitely not a climo pattern. Climo pattern doesn't have blood reds across the CONUS and Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Patience my friends Euro is the only one that sends the MJO into the COD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Oh....if you want to break balls for a winter forecast over a few mild days at the start of December, have at it. Should be an epic winter but man if it isn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I'd rather it reemerge again in P6 and dump cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 It's definitely not a climo pattern. Climo pattern doesn't have blood reds across the CONUS and Canada. Climo in New England. Bet we end up the next 15 days around + 1 or so, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Why do people get irritated? I'm expressing my opinion on a weather blog. If that bothers people it's probably time to find a new hobby And certainly you are entitled to express your opinions. I believe there are times when some members are a bit cautious about expressing their opinions because they fear being ridiculed. As you mentioned it is a hobby. And hobbies are meant to be enjoyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Should be an epic winter but man if it isn't Backloaded is fine. March is fun when wintry. If the seasonals are right, Spring is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Climo in New England. Bet we end up the next 15 days around + 1 or so, Lows will probably be up. I'll take the over starting yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Lows will probably be up. I'll take the over starting yesterday. +what is your call, I say average all New England major climo sites and its plus 1.3, you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I'm also unsure as to why you dubbed my outlike a "diatribe", Steve....sure it was lengthy, but not cirtical of anyone or anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Lows will probably be up. I'll take the over starting yesterday. can't start yesterday bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I'm also unsure as to why you dubbed my outlike a "diatribe", Steve....sure it was lengthy, but not cirtical of anyone or anything... A diatribe also means a prolonged discourse, no negativity intended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 can't start yesterday bro Well I am. First half +1.5. You say, wow that isn't bad. I say, it is when source region is +15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Well I am. First half +1.5. You say, wow that isn't bad. I say, it is when source region is +15. so you are using known data to make a prediction, hey I am betting the Pats lose to Green Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 so you are using known data to make a prediction, hey I am betting the Pats lose to Green Bay Do you suggest scrolls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 MJO should at least make it into phase 6, which is good because that re-fires the -EPO....if it goes into the COD after that happens, it's fine...since the backround state will want to a +PNA anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Patience my friends Euro is the only one that sends the MJO into the COD Can someone explain what this means? For us not so savvy folks . What's the cod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I guess ...not sure what people's problem is... ignoring nice advisory event for a lot from the OV to NE regions? Haven't the time to scan back pages but seems there's a pre-occupation for big ticket synoptics, when there are interesting meteorological happenings right now. I also believe that NWS offices are going to have a problem getting this (bold below) to verify for Worcester Hills and western Middlesex Co, ...possibly down into N CT, too. Rain, snow, and sleet, becoming all rain after 2am. Low around 31. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. It's going to change and get above freezing [most likely], but these scenarios belay ...like, 90% of the events. we have a separate thread for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 MJO should at least make it into phase 6, which is good because that re-fires the -EPO....if it goes into the COD after that happens, it's fine...since the backround state will want to a +PNA anyway. That's how I look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Do you suggest scrolls? man you really know how to go out on a limb, living on the edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 What does the museum have from Chief Massasoit's scribblings of December +ENSO events from 1621-1640? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 man you really know how to go out on a limb, living on the edge man you really know how to go out on a limb, living on the edge I'm not sure what you mean. That's my prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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