moneypitmike Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Kevin's icon reads 0 this morning. I knew Tolland was special but I didn't realize it was this special. It's measuring the probability for a wire-to-wire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 You sure are interested in recurving typhoons in the cold season, haha. Don't you give Ginxy crap all summer for talking about those? It's a JB rule that we joke about..Once the Euro realizes it's actually going to recurve all the whiners and complainers the last few days will be changing their tunes. just like Nov. Nothing changed with the overnight runs..yet you'd think a mustard bomb was just dropped in New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 It's a JB rule that we joke about..Once the Euro realizes it's actually going to recurve all the whiners and complainers the last few days will be changing their tunes. just like Nov. Nothing changed with the overnight runs..yet you'd think a mustard bomb was just dropped in New England Just sit back and admire your nice clean, green, lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Nothing changed with the overnight runs..yet you'd think a mustard bomb was just dropped in New England Well it wasn't like anyone is any more or less upbeat than they were yesterday. It looks identical and the mood is identical, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Keep it boring till return to Boston! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 It's measuring the probability for a wire-to-wire winter. Lol...good one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Well it wasn't like anyone is any more or less upbeat than they were yesterday. It looks identical and the mood is identical, haha. The posts about snowless December..and the met trolling. It gets old.. I mean you could semi understand it..if the pattern did look bad..but when it looks halfway decent for the interior ..it's probably not time to worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 Just sit back and admire your nice clean, green, lawn. Maybe we can fool the trees into leafing out again so we could get some extra raking in. I still have one more raking to do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 The posts about snowless December..and the met trolling. It gets old.. I mean you could semi understand it..if the pattern did look bad..but when it looks halfway decent for the interior ..it's probably not time to worry Kevin, I'm upbeat on winter but the pattern looks like dog dung from sea to shining sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Kevin, I'm upbeat on winter but the pattern looks like dog dung from sea to shining sea. Jerry..no it doesn't. We've seen far worse in other years. It doesn't look great..but it certainly isn't terrible looking. There's even an outside shot at something this weekend esp for CNE on north. It's not a torch..and there's cold highs to the north that if times right can deliver wintry precip.Typhoon recurves and all this nonsense is gone..Just like Nov. I just don't understand it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 An outside, I mean outside shot still 9-10 perhaps. I'm basically saying this to protect kevin's sanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Jerry..no it doesn't. We've seen far worse in other years. It doesn't look great..but it certainly isn't terrible looking. There's even an outside shot at something this weekend esp for CNE on north. It's not a torch..and there's cold highs to the north that if times right can deliver wintry precip.Typhoon recurves and all this nonsense is gone..Just like Nov. I just don't understand it If you actually look at a model, you will agree with Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 If you actually look at a model, you will agree with Jerry. Dude cut the crap. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Dude cut the crap. Seriously. Did you look at the GFS last night? Complete disaster if you're looking for winter wx in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Dude cut the crap. Seriously. Truth hurts. It's shut off barring any fluke for the next 2-3 weeks. When everyone else agrees...I don't know what to tell you. Hope for a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Truth hurts. It's shut off barring any fluke for the next 2-3 weeks. When everyone else agrees...I don't know what to tell you. Hope for a fluke. You've been all over the place lately so let's get some definitive information 1) For the next 21 or so days you are saying there will be no wintry precip in SNE and it will be above normal? After posting last night maybe 12 hours ago..that the Dec 10-12 period could POSSIBLy feature something ..Unless a storm happens to come along timed correctly.. 2) That would mean chances are very low to none of a White Christmas I will say 2-3 wintry events are possible over the next 14-21 days with temps averaging near normal . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Truth hurts. It's shut off barring any fluke for the next 2-3 weeks. When everyone else agrees...I don't know what to tell you. Hope for a fluke. I don't want to commit to 2-3 weeks out. But it's far from an awe-inspiring look into the crystal ball. 25.0/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 First stages of denial starting to take hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 It looks cruddy through mid-month...doesn't mean we can't sneak in an event. I've seen worse such as Dec 2006 and Dec 2011, but it's pretty ugly. I'll put the shot at an advisory snow event below 30% through mid-month...we may get some crappy ones like tonight's "event". Kevin just wants everyone to focus on the low chance that we could still sneak an event in...not the much higher chance at a totally boring and uneventful 10-14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 You've been all over the place lately so let's get some definitive information 1) For the next 21 or so days you are saying there will be no wintry precip in SNE and it will be above normal? After posting last night maybe 12 hours ago..that the Dec 10-12 period could POSSIBLy feature something ..Unless a storm happens to come along timed correctly.. 2) That would mean chances are very low to none of a White Christmas I will say 2-3 wintry events are possible over the next 14-21 days with temps averaging near normal . How have I been all over the place? I've been saying don't expect much for three weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Yes it probably will be above normal, (although not a furnace) and yes chances for wintry weather are meager overall. However, as I said many times before, the chances to pull off something in a marginal event are there , but I don't see that as a high probability at all. I'm just telling it how it is. Hope for a fluke or the 10-12 to pull something off. The chances are not zero, but I think you would not be at a good state of mind if you just held onto hopes of something marginal. If it happens, awesome. This is for the next 15 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Kevin, no one is going to give you an absolute denial of any event because then what happens is that we get a marginal 2" event out of a crummy setup or a front end before it gets washed away by 1" of rain and then you're going to be calling us all wrong for forecasting no snow when in reality, we pretty much had the right idea with the pattern being a poor one for snow overall(not to say that something can't thread the needle). I'll give you some odds though which represent my thinking(All for KTOL). Even money on a 1" event 5:1 on a 4" advisory event 20:1 on a 10"+ event Unlikely, yes, impossible, no, but don't put your eggs in a five to one longshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Kidding aside, we have a lot of work to do to turn things around. I'm not expecting much for most of this month. The weenies are going to need to have patience. Close the shades, watch reruns of Rudolph, look at old pics of snow....whatever you need to do, to get through this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Odds of a white Christmas for SNE are relatively low even in a good year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Just sit back and admire your nice clean, green, lawn. This is all I can think of right now. SPIN-O-RAMA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Odds of a white Christmas for SNE are relatively low even in a good year. Depends where. ORH is almost 2 out of 3 years for a white Christmas...so actually pretty good. BOS is more like 1 in 3. BDL is around 50/50 as are the suburbs of BOS outside of 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Yes it probably will be above normal, (although not a furnace) and yes chances for wintry weather are meager overall. However, as I said many times before, the chances to pull off something in a marginal event are there , but I don't see that as a high probability at all. I'm just telling it how it is. Hope for a fluke or the 10-12 to pull something off. The chances are not zero, but I think you would not be at a good state of mind if you just held onto hopes of something marginal. If it happens, awesome. This is for the next 15 days or so. Fair enough..That's much better and more professional than saying everything is shut of for 14-21 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Fair enough..That's much better and more professional than saying everything is shut of for 14-21 days So what you are saying is that we shouldn't hype up the normal to above normal pattern? Sounds like you don't like a lot of hyperbole all of the sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Kevin just wants everyone to focus on the low chance that we could still sneak an event in...not the much higher chance at a totally boring and uneventful 10-14 days. This. Couldn't have summed it up better. Everyone is saying the same thing...chances are low for any meaningful event but it's not zero. Especially if we are considering wintery weather to be a brief snow/mix before rain. Most folks seem to be posting the higher probability of this being a dud for three weeks. Blizz wants everyone to focus on the low chance that something does sneak in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 But after 14-21 days with a -AO and crashing NAO and raging +PNA and (I forgot what the EPO is supposed to do), we'll have Santa coming in with his reindeer wearing snowshoes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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