December-winter is finally here!

[ORH_wxman]

Some don't like it, but you have to change as the signals change and the speculative time period gets closer. Something might be signaling a moderate 60/40 shot at a cold pattern two weeks out.

Sometimes that 40% of a non-cold pattern wins out. It's not 10%. It happens a decent amount. When it does, you have to adjust our line of thinking, not stubbornly stick to a now obsolete forecast from two weeks ago

[JC-CT]

so me discussing model output is now heart set on it. Funny thing is I said my Winter begins mid Dec all along despite what Scooter says. Meh

Seems like there are undertones of a prior debate here, no? You are confusing the people, such as me, who sometimes spend a day or two in real life and come back to 300 unread posts that they just have to skip over.

[JC-CT]

Some don't like it, but you have to change as the signals change and the speculative time period gets closer. Something might be signaling a moderate 60/40 shot at a old pattern two weeks out.

Sometimes that 40% of a non-cold pattern wins out. It's not 10%. It happens a decent amount. When it does, you have to adjust our line of thinking, not stubbornly stick to a now obsolete forecast from two weeks ago

Pretty basic scientific method - don't ignore relevant data just because it doesn't fit your hypothesis.

[Ginx snewx]

Seems like there are undertones of a prior debate here, no? You are confusing the people, such as me, who sometimes spend a day or two in real life and come back to 300 unread posts that they just have to skip over.

is PR real life? Apparently I forecasted mid winter from today on. Its cool I understand the motivation. Will has said for weeks Mid Dec. Does not mean no chances for a snow storm though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

so me discussing model output is now heart set on it. Funny thing is I said my Winter begins mid Dec all along despite what Scooter says. Meh

Funny thing is that I wasn't even referring to you. 

[Ginx snewx]

Funny thing is that I wasn't even referring to you.

cool but read the post you responded to.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I don't think we will have zero shot at some winter events. We will probably have the best chance of anywhere in the conus outside the mountains. It's not an ideal pattern but not a total furnace either.

We will see of we can get a sneaky event or two. Some of these air masses come in from Quebec and give us a shot

[Weathergun]

It's not surprising that models are warm given the classic Nino-look matches our El Nino...but it is still a bit surprising to see the GEFS as warm as it is given its MJO forecast. I'm wondering if the Nino forcing without blocking (especially this time of year) is so strong that it can even override an amplified MJO passage into phases 7-8-1. Sometimes the tropics don't win out.

 

I still expect that the MJO would have some influence and the megatorch doesn't last all that long, however. With the +PNA perhaps some can get lucky and sneak a storm in. And as Dave's post in the main forum suggests, an MJO that strong really should have more of an impact than is being implied on the models.

 

The Euro doesn't recurve that Typhoon -- the rest of the guidance does, though. We'll see. 

Perhaps the GEFS is speeding the MJO through phases 7/8/1 to quickly, to have that much an influence. The models aren't in agreement on speed/amplitude either (as of yesterday):

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

[40/70 Benchmark]

cool but read the post you responded to.

My bad. That was misleading.

I wasn't rererring to you, though.

[JC-CT]

is PR real life?

Lol, well played. I've been weaning/weenying myself off that too.

[Damage In Tolland]

The Friday night /Saturday event looks somewhat intriguing..esp away from the immediate coast

[Ginx snewx]

Does look warm for the CONUS but man that animation from Cohen's blog looks pretty much exactly like the modeling. Pretty typical first half of Dec.

[CoastalWx]

I've said since mid November at least the 10th, maybe mid month. I also said that it does not mean no snow, especially since climo dictates the interior can sneak events in now in marginal situations. The reason being tropical convection. A coherent MJO wave pushing out of the IO into the WPAC. The relaxation was and is well modeled. Every model had it. Now what's a little different is that the Aleutian/GOAK low is huge and flooding NAMR with Pacific air. It's also a climo feature and the reasons why niño Decembers can be ugly without a -NAO. I still think this will retro enough and weaken a bit later in the month. There is also the recurve which may or may not alter the pattern. But I would say this period was well modeled. The timing is never perfect so far out.

The problem the board continues to have, is that these posts get hidden under the other posts of elation and muted torches etc. This creates a false thinking it seems, so when the time comes to reevaluate the pattern, the whole " sky is falling " attitude comes into the mix when said meteorologist comes in to push back timing.

It's not a horrible pattern in that snow is impossible across the interior, but it's not pretty. I don't know what else to say. Steve, sorry I came across hard, but it really wasn't much colder on the Euro ensembles as a whole. A lot of people read the board and don't have access to all the information. It's important to try and get it right. Beyond hr 240 was not pretty yesterday.

[Ginx snewx]

I've said since mid November at least the 10th, maybe mid month. I also said that it does not mean no snow, especially since climo dictates the interior can sneak events in now in marginal situations. The reason being tropical convection. A coherent MJO wave pushing out of the IO into the WPAC. The relaxation was and is well modeled. Every model had it. Now what's a little different is that the Aleutian/GOAK low is huge and flooding NAMR with Pacific air. It's also a climo feature and the reasons why niño Decembers can be ugly without a -NAO. I still think this will retro enough and weaken a bit later in the month. There is also the recurve which may or may not alter the pattern. But I would say this period was well modeled. The timing is never perfect so far out.

The problem the board continues to have, is that these posts get hidden under the other posts of elation and muted torches etc. This creates a false thinking it seems, so when the time comes to reevaluate the pattern, the whole " sky is falling " attitude comes into the mix when said meteorologist comes in to push back timing.

It's not a horrible pattern in that snow is impossible across the interior, but it's not pretty. I don't know what else to say. Steve, sorry I came across hard, but it really wasn't much colder on the Europe ensembles as a whole. A lot of people read the board and don't have access to all the information. It's important to try and get it right. Beyond hr 240 was not pretty yesterday.

NBD but I was talking about run to run changes in up to day 10. I posted comparisons. I got it right. Anyways as usual Mid Dec on is when I think of winter in my hood. On another note VT might get a lot of snow but man they torch and lose snow faster than any other NNE state.

[ORH_wxman]

There's an element of subjectivity that gets mixed into the objective analysis too. Some people may view anything other than a furnace as a decent pattern. Others may view anything other than January 2011 as a terrible pattern.

So when a pretty average to slightly above average temp pattern verifies as +0.4, the people reading the "anything that isn't jan 2011 sucks" posts all say "wow all this talk of a horrific pattern was a bust".

Sometimes you have to filter through the hyperbolic junk.

[CoastalWx]

It's also a good time to have it. A big GOAK low to start December in a time where climo isn't the best for winter wx. We can live with that. My concern is the big strat vortex. It's coming right back again. I would like to see that weaken. I've seen all the literature etc about the snow cover thing , but every year is different. Disclaimer: I am not calling for winter to fail. I'm just saying there is a lot of work needed. Hopefully we see some more gut punches heading through the month.

[earthlight]

I've said since mid November at least the 10th, maybe mid month. I also said that it does not mean no snow, especially since climo dictates the interior can sneak events in now in marginal situations. The reason being tropical convection. A coherent MJO wave pushing out of the IO into the WPAC. The relaxation was and is well modeled. Every model had it. Now what's a little different is that the Aleutian/GOAK low is huge and flooding NAMR with Pacific air. It's also a climo feature and the reasons why niño Decembers can be ugly without a -NAO. I still think this will retro enough and weaken a bit later in the month. There is also the recurve which may or may not alter the pattern. But I would say this period was well modeled. The timing is never perfect so far out.

The problem the board continues to have, is that these posts get hidden under the other posts of elation and muted torches etc. This creates a false thinking it seems, so when the time comes to reevaluate the pattern, the whole " sky is falling " attitude comes into the mix when said meteorologist comes in to push back timing.

It's not a horrible pattern in that snow is impossible across the interior, but it's not pretty. I don't know what else to say. Steve, sorry I came across hard, but it really wasn't much colder on the Euro ensembles as a whole. A lot of people read the board and don't have access to all the information. It's important to try and get it right. Beyond hr 240 was not pretty yesterday.

 

Agreed...the only slightly concerning thing to me is the breadth of the below normal anomalies in the GOAK/Aleutians. That really kills us and it's something you don't want to see become a trend this winter. Also it would be nice to start to see some blocking in the NAO region that isn't totally east based or coming out of a Scandinavian/UK ridge..but I suppose patience is in order for that until we get a more formidable PV disruption

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's also a good time to have it. A big GOAK low to start December in a time where climo isn't the best for winter wx. We can live with that. My concern is the big strat vortex. It's coming right back again. I would like to see that weaken. I've seen all the literature etc about the snow cover thing , but every year is different. Disclaimer: I am not calling for winter to fail. I'm just saying there is a lot of work needed. Hopefully we see some more gut punches heading through the month.

 Agreed. I've been saying that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

As far as the GOA and stratospheric concerns, I'm just gonna reevaluate in 2 weeks.

[SnoSki14]

It seems that we need some pretty drastic changes in the next 2-3 weeks then which doesn't seem that long in theory. We failed in forecasting the 2013 hurricane season and we failed in forecasting last winter so my faith in forecasters is sketchy at best right now.

I don't know if there was a consensus last winter about it being mild with below average snow but this year there's a clear consensus on how winter should be so a major bust would be a huge kick in the balls for forecasters and METs yet again. The public already shows distrust in them and this will just stir the flames further.

[powderfreak]

 On another note VT might get a lot of snow but man they torch and lose snow faster than any other NNE state.

 

Meh, its bare in the weenie Mecca of Pittsburgh, NH too and johnsweather has had the same snowfall to date as I have.  You know that last storm was a total fluff bomb deform snows, so not surprising that 0.4-0.6" of SWE didn't last as long as 1.2-1.6" further east.  Its life on the NW slope...you get lots of snowy days but you can torch over the top.  We were talking about it in the NNE thread.  Even in Dendrites area the high spots seem to have lost all snow with that Newbury, NH site writing "unbelievable snow melt" overnight and having 0.5" left.  I think lower elevations in that area may be the best spot to live, if you have to worry about torches at 1,500ft.

 

Rough day on here for some of you though...man some pissing in cheerios or something.

[Brian5671]

What a torch today! 63

[weathafella]

Many great winters have prolonged December torches. NYC was in the upper 60s to 70 for a lot of the first 7-10 dqys of 1960. Boston had a torchy period in December 1993, and there are many other examples. Would you rather cold and snow now and then rain 12/24-5 or mild now and cold then?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It seems that we need some pretty drastic changes in the next 2-3 weeks then which doesn't seem that long in theory. We failed in forecasting the 2013 hurricane season and we failed in forecasting last winter so my faith in forecasters is sketchy at best right now.

I don't know if there was a consensus last winter about it being mild with below average snow but this year there's a clear consensus on how winter should be so a major bust would be a huge kick in the balls for forecasters and METs yet again. The public already shows distrust in them and this will just stir the flames further.

Public opinion should and probably is taken with a grain of salt. The public really has no idea how fickle weather forecasting, especially long range can be.

If people see a winter forecast, they expect that forecast to be correct pretty much exactly, or its a "bust". I think the general public is just extremely uneducated to meteorology and how fast things can change.

A lot of people have called for above average snow etc. This winter, but not all. Its December still, and December in Nino years can be garbage. With that being said, its more than just that, we have some other problems that need to be sorted out

[Zeus]

Many great winters have prolonged December torches. NYC was in the upper 60s to 70 for a lot of the first 7-10 dqys of 1960. Boston had a torchy period in December 1993, and there are many other examples. Would you rather cold and snow now and then rain 12/24-5 or mild now and cold then?

 

Nothing tasty even in fantasy range and here you are dropping '93 nuggets like a trail of tear-soaked turds.

 

Ain't nothin' happenin' for a while.

[weathafella]

Nothing tasty even in fantasy range and here you are dropping '93 nuggets like a trail of tear-soaked turds.

 

Ain't nothin' happenin' for a while.

Other than the small event in the next 36 hours...

[WinterWolf]

There's an element of subjectivity that gets mixed into the objective analysis too. Some people may view anything other than a furnace as a decent pattern. Others may view anything other than January 2011 as a terrible pattern.

So when a pretty average to slightly above average temp pattern verifies as +0.4, the people reading the "anything that isn't jan 2011 sucks" posts all say "wow all this talk of a horrific pattern was a bust".

Sometimes you have to filter through the hyperbolic junk.

Love the line about the Hyperbolic Junk....That is what needs to be done.  Great Point.

[Ginx snewx]

It seems that we need some pretty drastic changes in the next 2-3 weeks then which doesn't seem that long in theory. We failed in forecasting the 2013 hurricane season and we failed in forecasting last winter so my faith in forecasters is sketchy at best right now.

I don't know if there was a consensus last winter about it being mild with below average snow but this year there's a clear consensus on how winter should be so a major bust would be a huge kick in the balls for forecasters and METs yet again. The public already shows distrust in them and this will just stir the flames further.

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[Zeus]

Other than the small event in the next 36 hours...

 

"Event." Nope.

[Logan11]

I always play for the next week, maybe ten days.  Look for that sneaky event, etc. Otherwise you spend an inordinate amount if time searching long range weather maps for that perfect winter pattern that may never come. Clearly lots of model scatter as we are in this transitional season.

 

Meanwhile my 10 inches from last Wednesday is down to about 2 to 3 inches in shaded and sheltered spots and at trace to 2 inches in open and windier spots. Down to 38 now and slow slide today here, but it torched to hell overnight.

 

 

Yeah I don't think we will have zero shot at some winter events. We will probably have the best chance of anywhere in the conus outside the mountains. It's not an ideal pattern but not a total furnace either.

We will see of we can get a sneaky event or two. Some of these air masses come in from Quebec and give us a shot