CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Everyone was liking the way things had trended colder..the Euro ens looked colder..and the feeling seemed to be a more wintry appeal..now this morning the GEFS totally flipped and absolutely torch us with 50's for like 5-10 days after looking good for so long I have a feeling if that Typhoon recurves it changes everything..and models are having trouble resolving that It was colder for like two days lol. That's Steve in fantasy land. All I said was that it's not pretty. Too big of a GOAK trough. However with a +PNA, the far interior can always have a shot. Got to get a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 The graphic in that Cohen article made me feel better about a Dec torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 It all seems ironic that the tread title is "winter is finally here!" Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 The graphic in that Cohen article made me feel better about a Dec torch. December is always shaky in Nino's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 All the good vibes from yesterday are gone it seems I've never had a good vibe about winter 14-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 December is always shaky in Nino's.I am totally feeling the frequency of storms so far though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 It was colder for like two days lol. That's Steve in fantasy land. All I said was that it's not pretty. Too big of a GOAK trough. However with a +PNA, the far interior can always have a shot. Got to get a -NAO And you even mentioned a possibility the 10-12th.. Just gonna have to watch that phoon and see what it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I've never had a good vibe about winter 14-15. Well the good news is that nobody cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Well the good news is that nobody cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Everyone was liking the way things had trended colder..the Euro ens looked colder..and the feeling seemed to be a more wintry appeal..now this morning the GEFS totally flipped and absolutely torch us with 50's for like 5-10 days after looking good for so long I have a feeling if that Typhoon recurves it changes everything..and models are having trouble resolving that Sometimes you have to lean on the side of persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Well the good news is that nobody cares. Well that just ruined my day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 And you even mentioned a possibility the 10-12th.. Just gonna have to watch that phoon and see what it does Yes I threw it out there as low confidence and I was bored . Still possible. I see no reason to panic. Weenies out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 It was colder for like two days lol. That's Steve in fantasy land. All I said was that it's not pretty. Too big of a GOAK trough. However with a +PNA, the far interior can always have a shot. Got to get a -NAOWTF are you referring to here? I believe you have been saying Dec 10th for two weeks. Just like you to throw people under the bus though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 It's not surprising that models are warm given the classic Nino-look matches our El Nino...but it is still a bit surprising to see the GEFS as warm as it is given its MJO forecast. I'm wondering if the Nino forcing without blocking (especially this time of year) is so strong that it can even override an amplified MJO passage into phases 7-8-1. Sometimes the tropics don't win out. I still expect that the MJO would have some influence and the megatorch doesn't last all that long, however. With the +PNA perhaps some can get lucky and sneak a storm in. And as Dave's post in the main forum suggests, an MJO that strong really should have more of an impact than is being implied on the models. The Euro doesn't recurve that Typhoon -- the rest of the guidance does, though. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I only caught a bit of Matt Noyes forecast. Has next 10 days averaging normal to slightly above, but mentioned he sees another warm spell beginning after the end of the 10 day period. Also calling for a "warm" December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Yes I threw it out there as low confidence and I was bored . Still possible. I see no reason to panic. Weenies out of control. Let it be noted I'm not panicking and I think modeling is way, way too warm as we've seen all summer and fall. I don't think it's a cold pattern but even normal this time of year can yield snow/ice events. I think New Eng is the best place to be until the country turns cold after the 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Let it be noted I'm not panicking and I think modeling is way, way too warm as we've seen all summer and fall. I don't think it's a cold pattern but even normal this time of year can yield snow/ice events. I think New Eng is the best place to be until the country turns cold after the 10thwell we know who will flip flop and then say low confidence. No balls calls. At least you have a set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Let it be noted I'm not panicking and I think modeling is way, way too warm as we've seen all summer and fall. I don't think it's a cold pattern but even normal this time of year can yield snow/ice events. I think New Eng is the best place to be until the country turns cold after the 10th I think we'll have to push that back a bit. The 10th may be early for widespread colder pattern in the conus. Might be more like 15-20th and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 well we know who will flip flop and then say low confidence. No balls calls. At least you have a set. Doesnt win you anything in meteorology for having "a set" in low confidence long range forecasting. Except to look foolish a bit more often than already happens in this field naturally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I think we'll have to push that back a bit. The 10th may be early for widespread colder pattern in the conus. Might be more like 15-20th and beyond.A Jerry forecast on his birthday, the pattern will change on the 15th complete by the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Doesnt win you anything in meteorology for having "a set" in low confidence long range forecasting. Except to look foolish a bit more often than already happens in this field naturally. meh,if you don't know just say it. I can throw people under the bus too.It's funny when some discuss LR modeling it's a forecast but when others do it's low confidence discussion. Weenies out of control, bad reading comprehension etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 10th is too early. No question now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 It was colder for like two days lol. That's Steve in fantasy land. All I said was that it's not pretty. Too big of a GOAK trough. However with a +PNA, the far interior can always have a shot. Got to get a -NAO If he has is heart set on salvaging winter for the next two weeks, its going to be a long first half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 well we know who will flip flop and then say low confidence. No balls calls. At least you have a set.Imagine if our numerical weather prediction worked that way.At hr 384, the GFS is making a call, and it's sticking to it because it has balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 meh,if you don't know just say it. I can throw people under the bus too. The LR is really about probabilistic forecasting. The problem is that most general public and weenies don't like that. They want deterministic forecasts. The science isnt there yet. There's occasional times where it's almost a slam dunk for a certain pattern two weeks out but that is fairly rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I think we'll have to push that back a bit. The 10th may be early for widespread colder pattern in the conus. Might be more like 15-20th and beyond. I thought that is what it was all along.... 10-15th was always nebulous, at best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Imagine if our numerical weather prediction worked that way. At hr 384, the GFS is making a call, and it's sticking to it because it has balls. The Balls Model???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 If he has is heart set on salvaging winter for the next two weeks, its going to be a long first half of the month.so me discussing model output is now heart set on it. Funny thing is I said my Winter begins mid Dec all along despite what Scooter says. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I also remember saying it could be after mid month as well. Two things need to happen. Either weaken low near AK or move it west. It's also a classic example of sucky +NAO looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 so me discussing model output is now heart set on it. Funny thing is I said my Winter begins mid Dec all along despite what Scooter says. MehI never said anything much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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