dryslot Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Euro Ens are colder now Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Euro Ens are colder nowAMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Snizzling below the radar beam later Tuesday ... In this sort of set up, there is a narrow, low- elevation/saturated layer under steepening warm layer/inversion over top, that is squeezing out very light to even steady light freezing drizzle and/or flurries. It may not be much, no.. .but would keep the mystique of cold season going a bit. Granted actual 2-m T's are 30 to 35F, for the GFS at this range that's plenty of detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Agree tippy . Could be icy Wednesday morning. We all hopefully know the GFS can be too warm this time of year in the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Euro Ens are colder now They are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 They are?look for yourself,why would I post they are colder if they weren't? one example of many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 yes I most certainly did, thats a 2010 2011 winter blueprint Funny you mention that season....I referenced it in my outlook when describing the sensible appeal of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2014 Author Share Posted November 30, 2014 GEFS appear to be in the lead with euro caving today. I think things go back and forth for another few days before we get clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Funny you mention that season....I referenced it in my outlook when describing the sensible appeal of January.high impact lots of storms, storms and rumors of storms every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Snizzling below the radar beam later Tuesday ... 60hr.jpg In this sort of set up, there is a narrow, low- elevation/saturated layer under steepening warm layer/inversion over top, that is squeezing out very light to even steady light freezing drizzle and/or flurries. It may not be much, no.. .but would keep the mystique of cold season going a bit. Granted actual 2-m T's are 30 to 35F, for the GFS at this range that's plenty of detail. The Euro and 18Z RGEM go somewhat crazy on the overrunning for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Snow to ice Tues into Wed. Warm sector never makes it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Helluva way to run a boring warm first week of December.... NHZ008-011015-MERRIMACK-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONCORD...HOOKSETT303 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2014.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH..MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH..MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 18.NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH..TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE..TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THEEVENING...THEN CLOUDY WITH SNOW OR SLEET LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT ANDVARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT..WEDNESDAY...RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. NOT AS COLD WITH HIGHSIN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT..WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S..THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THELOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S..SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN. HIGHS INTHE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT..SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S..SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OFPRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 GEFS appear to be in the lead with euro caving today. I think things go back and forth for another few days before we get clarity. Meteotrade and I were saying they are a compromise it seems between gem and EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 18z GFS came in stride with the current discussion idea, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Man, there are a lot of 'gee I didn't see it' busty details about these guidance' today. The D7 Euro could be a nasty icing situation... Despite the 850mb T layout, that is a long saturated fetch off the Atlantic straight into a fresh polar wedge and a nasty ageostrophic vector argument from the N there... Course, the D7 Euro is piece of sh!t ...just saying. It's weird -- warm pattern with attempting trump details. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Not an expert but that's a strange looking system at the end of the 18Z GFS op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 OT but a Boston area gtg is planned...just want to make sure people don't miss this. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45022-boston-area-gtg-122214/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 So all models try to recurve that developing TC in the WPAC. It'll be interesting to see if that can alter that pattern after day 8 or so. It would be good to give the stratosphere a kick in the groin again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Seems like the 10-12 has a chance to offer a storm. Should be some sort of response from a sharp ridge out west. However, no blocking upstream. You can see hints of it on the means. Very low confidence, but something to keep on the warming rack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 Seems like the 10-12 has a chance to offer a storm. Should be some sort of response from a sharp ridge out west. However, no blocking upstream. You can see hints of it on the means. Very low confidence, but something to keep on the warming rack. Lol...someone will see the word warming and jump.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Lol...someone will see the word warming and jump.... It's amazing how careful I have to be now with my wording..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 So all models try to recurve that developing TC in the WPAC. It'll be interesting to see if that can alter that pattern after day 8 or so. It would be good to give the stratosphere a kick in the groin again. If I'm not mistaken, the ECM does not recurve it, just takes it straight into the Phillipines.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 If I'm not mistaken, the ECM does not recurve it, just takes it straight into the Phillipines.' True, it's on its own with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 GEFS are now a torch long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 +EPO/+PNA pattern for the next 6-10 and 11-14 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 +EPO/+PNA pattern for the next 6-10 and 11-14 days It's not a -PNA. But it's not a pretty pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 All the good vibes from yesterday are gone it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 All the good vibes from yesterday are gone it seems When was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 When was that? Everyone was liking the way things had trended colder..the Euro ens looked colder..and the feeling seemed to be a more wintry appeal..now this morning the GEFS totally flipped and absolutely torch us with 50's for like 5-10 days after looking good for so long I have a feeling if that Typhoon recurves it changes everything..and models are having trouble resolving that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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