alex Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Where did you see this? From weatherfella: 2004esque. November snow, mild December with snow and enough cold to keep the mean low enough, very mid first part of January and off to the races mid January though March. But maybe I'm misreading Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2014 Author Share Posted November 29, 2014 The consistent modeling of high pressure north of us draining cooler air down is a potential savior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2014 Author Share Posted November 29, 2014 From weatherfella: 2004esque. November snow, mild December with snow and enough cold to keep the mean low enough, very mid first part of January and off to the races mid January though March. But maybe I'm misreading Sent from my iPhone Wait....i described 2004 and gave a hypothetical pattern progression which btw included plenty of snow in December. It wasn't a read on the modeling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 From weatherfella: 2004esque. November snow, mild December with snow and enough cold to keep the mean low enough, very mid first part of January and off to the races mid January though March. But maybe I'm misreading Sent from my iPhone I think he was just rehashing Jan 2005. However, that month was snowy from start to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Wait....i described 2004 and gave a hypothetical pattern progression which btw included plenty of snow in December. It wasn't a read on the modeling! Now you see how easily things can be misconstrued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Well the extended clown GFS range should appease the people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2014 Author Share Posted November 29, 2014 Now you see how easily things can be misconstrued. If my words are looked at like that yours go though the electron microscope! People need to read what's written and ask before inferring something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Meanwhile, could be a wintry week for the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Well the extended clown GFS range should appease the people. The GFS continues to be much more amplified with the MJO wave than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 The GFS continues to be much more amplified with the MJO wave than the Euro. Just a bit. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 The consistent modeling of high pressure north of us draining cooler air down is a potential savior.Thats what I'm counting on. It's been there for 45 days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Meanwhile, could be a wintry week for the Mid Atlantic.And not here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Just a bit. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Jesus. Meanwhile, the Euro puts the MJO in the COD before phase 6...that's quite the change. I feel like that alone explains the differences in the guidance. I'm not even sure I want to just speed through more than half of the phases in a two-week period like the GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Now you see how easily things can be misconstrued. Ah yes! I totally see how I misread the post! I have my whole family coming from Italy for Xmas. First Xmas together in 15 years or so! Really hoping for it to be white. Of course I'm also a master weenie so I'd hope for that no matter what, but now the stakes are higher Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Doug, I also wonder how and if the developing TC out in the WPAC is messing around with the fields? 12z GFS is aggressive with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 UKIE MJO is amplified like the GFS. I do think the Euro is probably weakening the pulse too quickly, but I'm not exactly an expert on this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 And not here? No, not like it may be down there. Perhaps maybe this weekend here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 If my words are looked at like that yours go though the electron microscope! People need to read what's written and ask before inferring something else. Sorry!!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Paul Roundy's stuff seems in between too. The overall forcing should move into the western Hemi eventually, but my guess is to look at the 200mb velocity potential and not the dynamical models since those could be messed around with by whatever happens with that TC. The VP anomalies at 200mb will have a better idea for the placement of divergence and enhanced convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Doug, I also wonder how and if the developing TC out in the WPAC is messing around with the fields? 12z GFS is aggressive with that. You mean with the MJO fields? I was under the impression that the MJO pulse was being aided by a Kelvin Wave passage which helps to cause the Typhoon...does the Typhoon in turn also affect the MJO? Unless you're just talking about the Typhoon altering the N PAC pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 No, not like it may be down there. Perhaps maybe this weekend here.No blocking = north trend maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 You mean with the MJO fields? I was under the impression that the MJO pulse was being aided by a Kelvin Wave passage which helps to cause the Typhoon...does the Typhoon in turn also affect the MJO? Unless you're just talking about the Typhoon altering the N PAC pattern. Well I mean the development of the TC. The strength and placement could have an effect on OLR and other metrics that the dynamic MJO models key on? I usually try and look at the VP anomalies to have an idea on where forcing might be. And yes, on the 12z GFS you can see that TC also tries anbd pumps up ridging in the EPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Paul Roundy's stuff seems in between too. The overall forcing should move into the western Hemi eventually, but my guess is to look at the 200mb velocity potential and not the dynamical models since those could be messed around with by whatever happens with that TC. The VP anomalies at 200mb will have a better idea for the placement of divergence and enhanced convection. Yeah, I feel like the dynamical models sometimes have too much noise in their forecasts. The VP anomalies give a better indicator as to how the MJO will affect the pattern...as long as the forcing moves into our hemisphere, that's all that really matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Yeah, I feel like the dynamical models sometimes have too much noise in their forecasts. The VP anomalies give a better indicator as to how the MJO will affect the pattern...as long as the forcing moves into our hemisphere, that's all that really matters. Yeah exactly. I am no expert on that stuff by any means, but that's how I approach it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Well I mean the development of the TC. The strength and placement could have an effect on OLR and other metrics that the dynamic MJO models key on? I usually try and look at the VP anomalies to have an idea on where forcing might be. And yes, on the 12z GFS you can see that TC also tries anbd pumps up ridging in the EPAC. Right, that definitely makes sense. That could throw a wrench into their forecasts. Also, if that Typhoon pumps enough ridging in the E PAC to link with the blocking north of AK...then the pattern will be much colder than forecast. The GFS OP partially, but not completely pulls that off. This is one reason why having that block there is so important...any wave breaking event out there could link up with that blocking and we get a huge -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 No blocking = north trend maybe? Well there could be some ice in our area Wednesday or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Well I mean the development of the TC. The strength and placement could have an effect on OLR and other metrics that the dynamic MJO models key on? I usually try and look at the VP anomalies to have an idea on where forcing might be. And yes, on the 12z GFS you can see that TC also tries anbd pumps up ridging in the EPAC. The 12z GFS actually has another low developing to the northeast of that typhoon that really enhances the EPAC ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 The 12z GFS actually has another low developing to the northeast of that typhoon that really enhances the EPAC ridge. Sometimes it's not the actually low itself, but all that heat has to go somewhere too. Of course that's assuming the GFS op is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 The consistent modeling of high pressure north of us draining cooler air down is a potential savior. Hello is nobody listening to us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Put your torches away folks. Instead get out your leggins and snowpants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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