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December-winter is finally here!


weathafella

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I haven't had a chance to take a closer look at the temperature profilesbut I was wondering if there could be any potential icing issues on Christmas Eve especially if there is snow pack in place?

 

You wanna talk icing issues nine days out? Yeah? That what you wanna do?

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One cutter is ok but the way the gfs was today the 12z especially it was ugly. I just don't like cutter need coastals instead. I do like the long range will the cold air nearby but we need snow.

Don't worry over one op run of the GFS...especially in extreme lalaland past the 192hr truncation.

What's up with the nervousness from the weenies lately? It's as if it's everyone's first winter here. Act like you've been there before.

post-3-0-95419600-1418689907_thumb.jpg

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Yeah it's off to a good start. After 4 of the last 5 years being under climo, hopefully we can get a good one up here (AND down there).

 

Jspin climo or NWS climo?

 

This areas climo. 2010-2011 was above normal...including 09-10, the rest have been below normal. Though not by a far amount but the general opinion of skiers in NVT is that it's been years since a good strong winter snow season has happened. They all want 2010-2011 back.

 

PF is talking about the climo for the Northern Greens, which is certainly distinct from that of BTV.  One look at the data from the Mt. Mansfield Co-op tells the story – these past 4-5 seasons represent the biggest dip in the plot in 20 years:

 

22AUG14A.jpg

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PF is talking about the climo for the Northern Greens, which is certainly distinct from that of BTV. One look at the data from the Mt. Mansfield Co-op tells the story – these past 4-5 seasons represent the biggest dip in the plot in 20 years:

22AUG14A.jpg

While I think their values are highly questionable a lot of the time, it's still definitely valid to use to assess seasonal trends. Pretty undeniable we've been in a bit of a minimum lately (amazing how cyclical that is) but it'll rebound again. Maybe this year can nudge above average.

Folks so far up here have noticed it, it's funny most of the skiers seem to be stoked more so than recent seasons in December. They are craving a solid winter after the past couple.

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I'm not sure I would've survived that haha.

 

Especially because Dec 1989 was one of the coldest months on record, and then winter essentially ended with Jan/Feb 1990 mild.

 

DEC: -13F departure

JAN: +11F departure

FEB: +2.4F departure

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
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