40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:30 PM, Damage In Tolland said: The big warmup didn't materialize anything like was modeled anywhere. It did in the mid west and plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Well if you get your rocks off on 45F instead of 52F...congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:31 PM, sbos_wx said: oe is almost always disappointing except for a handful of times a year Right. His optimism regarding that is probably a manifestation of his cape cod bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:28 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: It would have if it weren't for the cut off.if my Aunt had balls she'd be my uncle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:32 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: It did in the mid west and plains.Models at one point had 60's and 70's for days out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:34 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Models at one point had 60's and 70's for days out there I don't recall model temps that warm. You were saying 80...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:33 PM, Ginxy said: if my Aunt had balls she'd be my uncle The point is that the longwave change occured. I'm not sure why your weenie goggles are resisting this...if you are of the opinion that delayed pattern changes never occur, then I guess we're screwed for the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:28 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: It would have if it weren't for the cut off. Yeah we were a localized island that avoided the torch...but that general CONUS torch still verified. Sometimes you get lucky in a smaller area. Though it did always have the look that New England would be in the best spot to avoid the full brunt of it...I think we stated that back even before this cutoff happened. It did briefly look like we'd get really warm after this storm, but the cutoff lingers long enough to avoid big warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:34 PM, CoastalWx said: I don't recall model temps that warm. You were saying 80...lol. The twist twins. No surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:34 PM, CoastalWx said: I don't recall model temps that warm. You were saying 80...lol.I do. There was some runs of just ridiculous warmth. And we all worried we'd get into that for a period here. Thankfully it ended up BN with rain and mixed events instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:37 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I do. There was some runs of just ridiculous warmth. And we all worried we'd get into that for a period here. Thankfully it ended up BN with rain and mixed events instead. So the warmest of runs were too extreme...happens with cold often, too. Doesn't mean the N Hemisoheric pattern didn't shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:35 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: The point is that the longwave change occured. I'm not sure why your weenie goggles are resisting this...if you are of the opinion that delayed pattern changes never occur, then I guess we're screwed for the rest of the winter. Check the MTD's against the progs, models fooked up Nov too, really don"t care what they say beyond 7 days, never have. some here are obsessed about 7-21 days progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:36 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: The twist twins. No surprise. Now you know why I sometimes get right to the point and a bit testy. It gets old. Anyways, The EC had a nice run today. Really builds the PNA up near Christmas. We also have a couple of storms to watch as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:37 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I do. There was some runs of just ridiculous warmth. And we all worried we'd get into that for a period here. Thankfully it ended up BN with rain and mixed events instead. No. You interpreted +17 850s as 70s even if it was for areas where that height is below ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:33 PM, Ginxy said: if my Aunt had balls she'd be my uncle No you never talk in the world of "Ifs" ever...do you? Lol I disticntly remember a -5F departure November call. On 11/11/2014 at 12:58 PM, Ginxy said: I also said -5 baring any cutters, just to clarify. Intuitively I agree with MPM its harder to get biggest negative departures at the climo coldest time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:36 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we were a localized island that avoided the torch...but that general CONUS torch still verified. Sometimes you get lucky in a smaller area. Though it did always have the look that New England would be in the best spot to avoid the full brunt of it...I think we stated that back even before this cutoff happened. It did briefly look like we'd get really warm after this storm, but the cutoff lingers long enough to avoid big warmth. thats a helluva an island, models had the entire Northern sections +2 to +4 the first 7 days of Dec, every green area you see here was expected to torch relatively speaking but yea its the cutoffs fault, okey dokey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:33 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right. His optimism regarding that is probably a manifestation of his cape cod bias. i like oes as much as he does... but **** these marginal slop fests I need PLOWABLE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Part of what causes these shall we say" differing of opinions" is that people talk in absolutes. There isn't any middle ground allowed. It's either their way or the other person is wrong, or lying, or spinning. Instead of allowing that perhaps the orher party or parties may have some valid ideas, it's defined as spinning . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:43 PM, Nittany88 said: No you never talk in the world of "Ifs" ever...do you? Lol I disticntly remember a -5F departure November call. except you conveniently forgot the rest of nov from Nov 11th on and baring a major cutter caveat, but thats cool. Hows your Stowe rainstorm doing today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:42 PM, CoastalWx said: Anyways, The EC had a nice run today. Really builds the PNA up near Christmas. We also have a couple of storms to watch as well. I think this is what we need to keep in mind...let's enjoy the possibilities that all the good signs so far, can eventually deliver like they should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Those 6 days don't tell the story, run that 10 days from now and you'll see the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:47 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Part of what causes these shall we say" differing of opinions" is that people talk in absolutes. There isn't any middle ground allowed. It's either their way or the other person is wrong, or lying, or spinning. Instead of allowing that perhaps the orher party or parties may have some valid ideas, it's defined as spinning . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:47 PM, Ginxy said: except you conveniently forgot the rest of nov from Nov 11th on and baring a major cutter caveat, but thats cool. Hows your Stowe rainstorm doing today? Lol you are such a clown. I never said a Stowe rainstorm. I said they might have some warm air aloft that could cause some Sleet/Freezing rain and guess what, it is literally 12 miles east. And that caveat was my ENTIRE POINT LOL. You weren't happy with the usage of the "If" with the cutter. Yet you did the same thing. "If we didn't get the cutter, my -5F would've verified." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:45 PM, Ginxy said: thats a helluva an island, models had the entire Northern sections +2 to +4 the first 7 days of Dec, every green area you see here was expected to torch relatively speaking but yea its the cutoffs fault, okey dokey I guess we can call it Australia....the island Continent. I do think your point is valid though!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:47 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Part of what causes these shall we say" differing of opinions" is that people talk in absolutes. There isn't any middle ground allowed. It's either their way or the other person is wrong, or lying, or spinning. Instead of allowing that perhaps the orher party or parties may have some valid ideas, it's defined as spinning . hi i'm kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:50 PM, Nittany88 said: Lol you are such a clown. I never said a Stowe rainstorm. I said they might have some warm air aloft that could cause some Sleet/Freezing rain and guess what, it is literally 12 miles east. And that caveat was my ENTIRE POINT LOL. You weren't happy with the usage of the "If" with the cutter. Yet you did the same thing. "If we didn't get the cutter, my -5F would've verified." if the Queen had balls she'd be king. Baring unforeseen circumstances she won"t be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 The same group that was in awe of the most pedestrain nor 'easter known to man. I'm sure Steve will find some data denoting a parking lot in RI reporting its 3rd deepest puddle on record in the 2nd week of December when the landlord wore silk boxers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:49 PM, CoastalWx said: Those 6 days don't tell the story, run that 10 days from now and you'll see the difference. but lets talk today and what the models showed for as of today. I agree the next 7 days on the models look like a warm period but again anything past seven days is a crapshoot. longwave change or not no one here can speak in absolutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 all 3 of the major ensemble means look pretty good today by xmas. start to weaken the nao a bit too - though some of that is maybe just a function of the overall shift in the pacific too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 On 12/10/2014 at 8:54 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: The same group that was in awe of the most pedestrain nor 'easter known to man. Your anal retentiveness on this point which you have posted uh maybe 35 times in 3 days is indicative of your obsession with being the best forecaster on this board. calling out Jerry time after time because he stated he had never seen a setup like that was snarky and bad Juju. Hopefully it doesn't come back to smack you in the ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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