weathafella Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Well the pattern may suck but the sensible wx had not been too bad. I suspect we roast 12/12-18 but all things considered that's not bad given the hand we were dealt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 On 12/5/2014 at 12:20 AM, weathafella said: Well the pattern may suck but the sensible wx had not been too bad. I suspect we roast 12/12-18 but all things considered that's not bad given the hand we were dealt.Happy New Year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 On 12/4/2014 at 11:06 PM, powderfreak said: This event? I could go for that, but many people on here would be saying: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Watch out South Coast and eastern MA for rains changing over to sleet/freezing rain and snowfall Saturday night as cold air tries to reach the coast before the precip shuts off. NAM has around .50 to .75" of QPF falling just as the temps reach freezing. Something to just watch for in future runs. GFS shows this to a lesser degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 On 12/5/2014 at 2:49 AM, jamesnichols89 said: Watch out South Coast and eastern MA for rains changing over to sleet/freezing rain and snowfall Saturday night as cold air tries to reach the coast before the precip shuts off. NAM has around .50 to .75" of QPF falling just as the temps reach freezing. Something to just watch for in future runs. GFS shows this to a lesser degree. NAM has about a 3 hour window Sunday morning where 925's drop under freezing, and there's still precip. 850's not so much..so I wouldn't be surprised if we end as a bit of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 On 12/5/2014 at 2:54 AM, SouthCoastMA said: NAM has about a 3 hour window Sunday morning where 925's drop under freezing, and there's still precip. 850's not so much..so I wouldn't be surprised if we end as a bit of sleet. Future runs could be better, by the way 00z NAM finally showing OES precip at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Wish you all luck on the backside snow/sleet, Typically never pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Eh...looks like it's out of here before the profile cools off enough. Maybe if you're lucky you'll get a mangled flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Down slope dandy is what we get up here with everything moving SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 A heavy, heavy frost here already. Without my contacts in, I had to do a double take, as it almost looked like something else whitened up the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 On 12/5/2014 at 12:40 AM, Ginxy said: Happy New Year? Alright, let's roll. The weeklies are coming around to what has long been predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 If we're to go at the rate the Euro is going, we might bootleg cold to negative departures for the whole month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Euro doing everything in its power to keep us cold thru day 10 aside.. If we could somehow just lay down some snowpack early next week..it might actually have merit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Canadian ensemble is a full on pattern change by the end of the run. Other guidance not so much, but the EC ensembles are slowly improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 On 12/5/2014 at 12:20 AM, weathafella said: Well the pattern may suck but the sensible wx had not been too bad. I suspect we roast 12/12-18 but all things considered that's not bad given the hand we were dealt. No roast at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 GGEM Ens have a cross polar flow setting up by the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 On 12/5/2014 at 1:59 PM, Damage In Tolland said: GGEM Ens have a cross polar flow setting up by the 20th Boy, you have reaches far and wide. I assume that was twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 On 12/5/2014 at 2:00 PM, CoastalWx said: Boy, you have reaches far and wide. I assume that was twitter.I see things... I hear things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 On 12/5/2014 at 2:03 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I see things... I hear things...If I was not on my phone, this would have become my new signature instantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 On 12/4/2014 at 7:57 PM, JC-CT said: Lol P006, just lol. Putting aside the 983mb low at the BM that this GEFS member was showin as obviously irrelevant... I like the time frame around the 16-17th for another opportunity for disappointment. Potentially another PNA spike with a falling NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 The torch is kind of getting snuffed in the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The GFS op just drove nat gas nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 On 12/5/2014 at 5:06 PM, CoastalWx said: The GFS op just drove nat gas nuts. Talk about a 180 in the last coulle of days! I do think the pattern change comes around the holidays...there is some support now from the GFS ensembles as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Thats the coldest Op run of the GFS in 7-10 days.....many of the ensemble members on the 00Z run though were fairly cold after Day 10-12....5-6 had deep troughs in the East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 On 12/5/2014 at 5:19 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Thats the coldest Op run of the GFS in 7-10 days.....many of the ensemble members on the 00Z run though were fairly cold after Day 10-12....5-6 had deep troughs in the East Granted it's the op run, but hopefully a sign of the weakening grip of the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Better improvement on the GEFS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 On 12/5/2014 at 5:49 PM, CoastalWx said: Better improvement on the GEFS too. The importance of what one little coastal storm can do to a pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 On 12/5/2014 at 6:08 PM, Mike.Ventrice said: The importance of what one little coastal storm can do to a pattern I think the pacific looked better too. Hopefully that vortex displacement at 50mb does its job eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Its snowing here, flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 On 12/5/2014 at 5:19 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Thats the coldest Op run of the GFS in 7-10 days.....many of the ensemble members on the 00Z run though were fairly cold after Day 10-12....5-6 had deep troughs in the East Yeah no kidding. Looks like northern half of the CONUS is much colder beyond about 252hr with a much stronger high. Pretty different from the 18z op GFS run yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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