Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The OP Euro actually has +16 to +20C 850's pushing into the Plains so the big story will be record warmth mid-month. Can you say pattern change? This will be one of the most dramatic November into December warm ups on record for the Plains to the Midwest. But at least we won't have to hear that polar vortex meme anymore. https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/539593330326134784 If that warmth heads east and I'm sure it will even in muted form, the weenie suicides here are going to be out of control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 He keeps saying the same thing over and over again. He should just be patient. I wasn't even trying to start anything it was a legit question. There's a pretty good consensus now that mid December is going to mild to perhaps very mild so I was asking if changes would take place later on which would take us toward late December. Again if it's warm beyond then so be it I'll accept it its weather what can you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 I wasn't even trying to start anything it was a legit question. There's a pretty good consensus now that mid December is going to mild to perhaps very mild so I was asking if changes would take place later on which would take us toward late December. Again if it's warm beyond then so be it I'll accept it its weather what can you do. Nothing right now supports very mild which pretty much means a torch, above normal at best. Warm ups have been muted as they've gotten closer. Also 15-20th look like the time period where we will start seeing more promising changes over greenland, AK and the NP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 If that warmth heads east and I'm sure it will even in muted form, the weenie suicides here are going to be out of control To that extreme It doesn`t . The Euro ensembles have no SE ridge the flow day 10 - 15 is from the W then NW . There is no SW flow . Warmest 850`s are plus 5 day 12 - and by that Canada is cooling and we are back near 0 at 850 by 360 . What`s a 2 -3 SD above normal in MANITOBA is close to normal at KNYC when the highs are in the mid 40`s . The air though Pacific does not modify all that much as the flow is due E . There is plenty of snow cover at this time in Canada so our departures do not explode . Prob A . Day 1 -10 were suppose to be A but they will turn out N . Careful in the LR this stuff turns on a dime, the Spray is wide so the models tend to wash out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 ummmm? the sun is not furthest in the winter chief you know what I meant, Boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Ok fair enough. I'm actually hoping we do see such an epic warm up in the long range from the Euro and Gfs. The anomalies are off the charts especially in parts of the plains. I love extremes so this would be a great study. So far the gfs is consistent in showing the big warm up post 12/12 so it'll be interesting to see if it plays out that way and also how warm things get if it does occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Ok fair enough. I'm actually hoping we do see such an epic warm up in the long range from the Euro and Gfs. The anomalies are off the charts especially in parts of the plains. I love extremes so this would be a great study. So far the gfs is consistent in showing the big warm up post 12/12 so it'll be interesting to see if it plays out that way and also how warm things get if it does occur. It shows 40s..that's not a big warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Ok fair enough. I'm actually hoping we do see such an epic warm up in the long range from the Euro and Gfs. The anomalies are off the charts especially in parts of the plains. I love extremes so this would be a great study. So far the gfs is consistent in showing the big warm up post 12/12 so it'll be interesting to see if it plays out that way and also how warm things get if it does occur. These are the surfaces at 240 . EPIC ? They are above there N s but I think epic does not apply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Ok fair enough. I'm actually hoping we do see such an epic warm up in the long range from the Euro and Gfs. The anomalies are off the charts especially in parts of the plains. I love extremes so this would be a great study. So far the gfs is consistent in showing the big warm up post 12/12 so it'll be interesting to see if it plays out that way and also how warm things get if it does occur. The GFS is largely violating its MJO forecast with its depictions, IMO either the MJO forecast is wrong or the pattern it seems to indicate we'll be in is wrong because even if we only go to phase 7 thats an abnormally mild pattern for phase 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 It shows 40s..that's not a big warm up It would be a lot warmer than that 850s are spiking above +10 over our area on the gfs and thats a widespread almost summer like over the top ridge spanning across the CONUS. We'll see what the Euro does as it managed to hold off the warmth around here due to those lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Pretty disgusting looking torch on the models going into the end of next week ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Pretty disgusting looking torch on the models going into the end of next week ... Stop looking at the long range and focus on the short to medium range . Models are showing a storm for next week. Lets focus on that first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Uh Oh, horrible news again. GFS brings the MJO into the COD just like the EURO now. No longer are we expected to go into the cold phases of the MJO. Winter cancel? LR looks like complete crap. UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The GFS is largely violating its MJO forecast with its depictions, IMO either the MJO forecast is wrong or the pattern it seems to indicate we'll be in is wrong because even if we only go to phase 7 thats an abnormally mild pattern for phase 7. Well apparently the gfs now brings the MJO to the COD after a brief passage through phase 7 so it's starting to come more in line with what may unfold. We've seen mild Decembers in Ninos before but this upcoming pattern resembles more of a strong Nino than a weak to moderate one. Again this is based off the current forecast as the models could very well be overdoing the LR warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 UKMET EURO and GFS >> UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 EURO and GFS >> UKMET Ukmet ranks higher than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Well apparently the gfs now brings the MJO to the COD after a brief passage through phase 7 so it's starting to come more in line with what may unfold. We've seen mild Decembers in Ninos before but this upcoming pattern resembles more of a strong Nino than a weak to moderate one. Again this is based off the current forecast as the models could very well be overdoing the LR warmth. The operational GFS has been doing that now for 2-3 days, the ensembles are not though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Ukmet ranks higher than the GFS What about the EURO? Don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Jesus Christ. Yup let's cancel winter on Dec 3rd bc the long range pattern doesn't look good. Read what the Mets and good posters are saying about EL Ninos and back loaded winters. Be patient or stop posting....this goes for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 EURO and GFS >> UKMET Euro the number 1 skill score model below takes the MJO into 7 - 3 days ago it killed it in 6 . The UKMET the number 2 skill score model takes through 7 with more amplitude and has not corrected . The GFS ? really , my sides are hurting . Please stop . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 What about the EURO? Don't think so. Euro is 1st Ukie is 2nd Can we worry about the possibility of coastal storm next week before worrying about something 10+ days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Euro is 1st Ukie is 2nd Can we worry about the possibility of coastal storm next week before worrying about something 10+ days from now. No we shouldn't even worry about that yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 i used to respect your posts but slowly your losing my respect. You've got to look at 3-5 days max. Watch that heat get shunted down, it's been happening the last 8 months That's record warmth in the Midwest...even if it's muted it will still be warm! I don't know what you want me to say? That warmth will get to us at some point, we can only avoid it for so long. I would love to see some cold start building in Canada on these op runs. Next week threats looks meh for the coast. No cold air mass to tap over the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 No we shouldn't even worry about that yet either. Exactly, Snow88 has been amping up this coastal threat like crazy. He's been posting EVERYWHERE about it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 No we shouldn't even worry about that yet either. Why not? All of the models show a possibility of a coastal storm next week even if it's just rain. What else is there to talk about? Sprinkles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Interesting map on the SNE about MJO 7 in a positive Nino state. Looks very different from a typical phase 7 in December and is very similar to the pattern we may resemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Interesting map on the SNE about MJO 7 in a positive Nino state. Looks very different from a typical phase 7 in December and is very similar to the pattern we may resemble. I was literally going over there to ask some of those guys if they knew if phase 7 and 8 during Ninos in December were warmer than Jan and Feb and then I saw that posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 By far one of the worst pages of discussion in this thread thus far. It is an utter train wreck of a discussion with almost no backing of science and hugging of a GFS/EURO LR model depiction? We need earthlight to come in here do some house cleaning before all credibility in this sub forum is lost. Let me remind all you winter canceller's that most of the mets on this forum arent concerned and the ones that are, they are trying to find any model data no matter how far in advance to justify they're means. El Nino= backloaded winter and december being the worst month of them all historically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I was literally going over there to ask some of those guys if they knew if phase 7 and 8 during Ninos in December were warmer than Jan and Feb and then I saw that posted. Yeh I just saw that .Question maybe Tom or Chris could pull it . What do the 2 Meters look like with 500 set up . SE trough doesn`t make me think the EC as warm as the rest of the CONUS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Jesus Christ. Yup let's cancel winter on Dec 3rd bc the long range pattern doesn't look good. Read what the Mets and good posters are saying about EL Ninos and back loaded winters. Be patient or stop posting....this goes for everyone. +1 at least the roads will be fine for travel so the doom's day weenies can go out and buy their razor blades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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