TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Sure you can pull something out of nothing. How about most recently Feb 2013 with "Nemo" and the ugly setup around that from the Pacific. The whole pattern reminds me of a split flow pattern and its no coincidence that despite a warm regime things are still fairly active. I actually think the setup was really good for memo, and it continued through march. We got about 150%+ of climo up here in 6-8 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Even if a +PNA develops? You have a rebounding PNA and a tanking NAO. Current projections are for a nearly neutral NAO by next week and for the PNA to reach roughly +1. It's an improvement, not off the charts great, but an improvement. I did say I think this bears watching. We need some improvements out West. A more positive PNA would push the western ridge axis further North and help to amplify the downstream pattern. Otherwise I don't really see much of a meachanism to slow things down. Especially with no high lattitude blocking to speak of. I'm not sure if you can see the 500mb vorticy maps for the Euro or not. Between 168-174 hours a piece of the arctic jet phases in over Quebec. That has to be one of the strangest solutions in awhile, and I would certainly need to see some continuity before I considered it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Gfs puts the real torch on hold until post 12/12 but that is nearly 10 days away so who knows exactly what things will look like. Things do look kind of seasonable these next 8 or 9 days or maybe slightly above because of higher mins. A coastal type low could make it interesting for portions of New England especially the interior. It's just unfortunate that the period after is when we really may torch rather than turning the corner like we thought we might've by mid month or the 15-20 period. That could be a bit of an encouraging sign. Pushing the real warmth back seems kind or like a theme we've had for months now. Warm spells are delayed or muted etc. However, it could actually be worse too. If it gets pushed back and eventually does torch us pretty good, that could happen really close to the holidays instead of mid month which would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 You have a rebounding PNA and a tanking NAO. Current projections are for a nearly neutral NAO by next week and for the PNA to reach roughly +1. It's an improvement, not off the charts great, but an improvement. I did say I think this bears watching. We need some improvements out West. A more positive PNA would push the western ridge axis further North and help to amplify the downstream pattern. Otherwise I don't really see much of a meachanism to slow things down. Especially with no high lattitude blocking to speak of. I'm not sure if you can see the 500mb vorticy maps for the Euro or not. Between 168-174 hours a piece of the arctic jet phases in over Quebec. That has to be one of the strangest solutions in awhile, and I would certainly need to see some continuity before I considered it. ?? Not one model is showing a tanking NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 ?? Not one model is showing a tanking NAO Short term projections have the NAO to near neutral by next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Short term projections have the NAO to near neutral by next week. so from +1.1 SD to +.2SD is considered tanking? The overall NAO state on the modeling has been a consistent ++NAO. The Scandanavian ridge somehow factors into those charts, which has no real affect on us. Just some partially higher heights into the Northern Greenland areas. Nothing that would convulse the use of a "tanking" NAO in a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The 12z GFS still wants nothing to do with the late weekend system. The shortwave quickly exits stage right, with no blocking or phasing to slow it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Should we start looking ahead to January or perhaps the very last week of December for any possible changes? It seems that we are gonna be cooking from the 13-20 at least and then after we enter the holiday week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 so from +1.1 SD to +.2SD is considered tanking? The overall NAO state on the modeling has been a consistent ++NAO. The Scandanavian ridge somehow factors into those charts, which has no real affect on us. Just some partially higher heights into the Northern Greenland areas. Nothing that would convulse the use of a "tanking" NAO in a forecast. Why do all of your replies to me have an arrogant, hostile tone? Please let us know what the rules are regarding what can and can not be considered a tanking NAO so that I can avoid making this mistake in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 A Mid Hudson ice storm would be worse than a foot of snow . The PNA rise allow troughs to slip between the ridge positions swing quickly through the lakes and into the N E . The Euro OP has been saying this as it has kept the torch muted here . With the trough coming under the ridge it cuts underneath to a point than exits . That`s how you can cut off . UKMET and Euro are the focus . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Why do all of your replies to me have an arrogant, hostile tone? Please let us know what the rules are regarding what can and can not be considered a tanking NAO so that I can avoid making this mistake in the future. Sorry if i'm coming off arrogant. If you're going to make forecasts & analyze specifics, be careful what words and phrases you use. Im sure about 100% of the mets wouldn't use "tanking nao" to describe the H5 pattern in the NAO region moving forward. I'm simply trying to make sure that people understand what's actually going on. You put your thoughts out there, and I disagreed with your thoughts and engaged in a rebutall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 We only have the PNA in our favor going forward The Euro shows 2 coastal storms right when the PNA will be at its highest point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Even if the Euro verified, it looks like 850mb is the only layer above freezing for a majority of the storm for inland areas. More of a sleet setup than ice as the rain drops would likely freeze before reaching the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 GFS is really trying with the 1st low. It's also slightly colder than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Sorry if i'm coming off arrogant. If you're going to make forecasts & analyze specifics, be careful what words and phrases you use. Im sure about 100% of the mets wouldn't use "tanking nao" to describe the H5 pattern in the NAO region moving forward. I'm simply trying to make sure that people understand what's actually going on. You put your thoughts out there, and I disagreed with your thoughts and engaged in a rebutall. Fair enough, but if you look at the Euro ensembles, while it's still a positive NAO you can see how the higher heights are creeping towards Greenland. We need the PV to retrograde further southwest which will allow higher heights to build towards Greenland and push the colder area further South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The tone of this board is somewhat frustrating. We are about 3 weeks away from astronomical winter (when the sun is furthest) and some members are on the verge of canelling winter. Can't we stay objective with these conversations and keep climotology top of mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Should we start looking ahead to January or perhaps the very last week of December for any possible changes? It seems that we are gonna be cooking from the 13-20 at least and then after we enter the holiday week. Seriously, come back in 3 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Seriously, come back in 3 weeks He keeps saying the same thing over and over again. He should just be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Should we start looking ahead to January or perhaps the very last week of December for any possible changes? It seems that we are gonna be cooking from the 13-20 at least and then after we enter the holiday week. We were supposed to cook this week too, instead we had one warm day-relax, models change and nothing's etched in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The tone of this board is somewhat frustrating. We are about 3 weeks away from astronomical winter (when the sun is furthest) and some members are on the verge of canelling winter. Can't we stay objective with these conversations and keep climotology top of mind. ummmm? the sun is not furthest in the winter chief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 He keeps saying the same thing over and over again. He should just be suspended. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Seriously, come back in 3 weeks People are impatient, so they see one Euro run and go head over heels for it, and then reference models such as the GGEM and JMA to support it instead of looking at whether or not the pattern supports such a solution. Once you get into the day 6 time frame, the GGEM and Euro have the large ULL and that always opens the door for something, something to watch. Then again, it could be gone by todays run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 ummmm? the sun is not furthest in the winter chief LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 May be a good time to switch those Florida plans for mid-December and head to Minnesota instead. ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png So in northern MN it's going to be +15F instead of -5F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 12z GFS gets pretty cold after the 1st low. It eventually warms up but that's in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 Should we start looking ahead to January or perhaps the very last week of December for any possible changes? It seems that we are gonna be cooking from the 13-20 at least and then after we enter the holiday week. Once again you are taking LR models and taking them seriously. As we've gotten closer and paul really has done an awesome job showing this it has NOT been a torch, just above average. This was forecasted by many mets and non-mets that december in general would be our least exciting month especially in a weak nino. Your post quality has been garbage and have had no basis to them except hunches. Listen more and post less. The El Nino winter pattern is almost going exactly to plan thus far. Its december 3rd take some xanax and relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 12z GGEM is still showing a strong coastal storm for early next week It's also colder than the previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 12z GGEM is still showing a strong coastal storm for early next week It's also colder than the previous runs Ignore the Canadian its showing a NE snowstorm right on the coast . And snow into KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Once again you are taking LR models and taking them seriously. As we've gotten closer and paul really has done an awesome job showing this it has NOT been a torch, just above average. This was forecasted by many mets and non-mets that december in general would be our least exciting month especially in a weak nino. Your post quality has been garbage and have had no basis to them except hunches. Listen more and post less. The El Nino winter pattern is almost going exactly to plan thus far. Its december 3rd take some xanax and relax The reason for all the panic on the board is that the pattern change to a cold/blocky regime might be held off till late this month. Shades of 2011? Probably not; El Nino's are notorious for backloaded winters. I'll give it till Christmas. If the pattern hasn't flipped by then, or at least the models doesn't show strong evidence of an impending change, I'll be very concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Ignore the Canadian its showing a NE snowstorm right on the coast . And snow into KNYC Euro isn't that far away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.