December Forecast Discussion

[RedSky]

Problem is it will be gone on tomorrows 12z run

[MJO812]

Problem is it will be gone on tomorrows 12z run

Maybe the PNA will help us out going forward. Also, the low level cold air on the Euro is interesting.Maybe we can squeeze something out of this pattern. This run didn't have the torch that the 12z run showed. Trough stayed in the east.

[Guest Pamela]

Problem is it will be gone on tomorrows 12z run

 

It only needs to be there once to draw them in; the cycle should run right through early April.

[RedSky]

Maybe the PNA will help us out going forward. Also, the low level cold air on the Euro is interesting.Maybe we can squeeze something out of this pattern.

Would be something if we pulled something off in a garbage pattern, wouldn't be the first time. I am pulling for the typhoon in the pacific who's track is yet determined to recurve and jump start winter again mid month.

[RedSky]

It only needs to be there once to draw them in; the cycle should run right through early April.

Last winter the euro excelled at the carrot on the stick routine. Yes it did snow frequently but it teased me with an extra 100"

[MJO812]

Would be something if we pulled something off in a garbage pattern, wouldn't be the first time. I am pulling for the typhoon in the pacific who's track is yet determined to recurve and jump start winter again mid month.

We did it in Feb 2006

 

Last winter the euro excelled at the carrot on the stick routine. Yes it did snow frequently but it teased me with an extra 100"

Yes it did ,especially in March

[Guest Pamela]

Last winter the euro excelled at the carrot on the stick routine. Yes it did snow frequently but it teased me with an extra 100"

 

I really don't get interested in anything until its under 96 hours; maybe 120 hours in January & February when the odds are better. 

[MJO812]

850's are cold enough with the 2nd storm. Still a long way out so it will most likely change again. One thing is that all of the models develop a coastal low early next week.

[TonyLovesSnow]

850's are cold enough with the 2nd storm. Still a long way out so it will most likely change again. One thing is that all of the models develop a coastal low early next week.

i was going to mention this last night but thank Goodness the euro just showed this. It literally stalls one of the lows. The cmc and gfs all have some type of storms and long lasting events so let's see what happens. This time of the year all you need is a strong storm and climo almost always helps us out. It is December after all. At least we got something to track. Id pay real good attention to the euro and cmc the next few days. Euro track and cmc timing.

[Blizz]

850's are cold enough with the 2nd storm. Still a long way out so it will most likely change again. One thing is that all of the models develop a coastal low early next week.

 

My only concern is that second storm isn't on any other model and looks a bit weird how it evolved and had to use the cold air left behind from the previous system to make anything of it. Its the Euro, so it can't totally be discounted but it really doesn't look right with the way it develops. If it wasn't for these two lows, there would be nothing from preventing the torch seen on 12z run to reappear.

[tmagan]

Judging by the last two runs of the ECMWF and the GFS, I wouldn't be surprised to see 80's over the western Dakotas by late next week.

[SnoSki14]

Sure you can pull something out of nothing. How about most recently Feb 2013 with "Nemo" and the ugly setup around that from the Pacific. The whole pattern reminds me of a split flow pattern and its no coincidence that despite a warm regime things are still fairly active.

[MJO812]

My only concern is that second storm isn't on any other model and looks a bit weird how it evolved and had to use the cold air left behind from the previous system to make anything of it. Its the Euro, so it can't totally be discounted but it really doesn't look right with the way it develops. If it wasn't for these two lows, there would be nothing from preventing the torch seen on 12z run to reappear.

Agree. The lows prevented the east from torching.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

See the thing is that you have precisely defined what an "A" winter is to you: 1995-96 and nothing else. That's fine; every one is entitled to define what they feel merits praise and the amount that they can justifiably heap upon it. However, most people have a broader definition of an "A" winter; narrowing the scope to the point where only the absolute best merits that designation means that virtually no subsequent winter can hope to live up to such a rating.

I'm talking about an A+. A+ being like a 100 and hence 95/96.

Around here an A winter is like 02/03 or 10/11. Top ten percent type stuff but not worthy of the +.

I go up to Seacliff for business once a week and pay very close attention to snow pack. Last winter there was a time where the extreme North Shores snow pack was double the extreme South Shores. In fact the snow pack at the northern end of Wantagh (about 3 miles north of my location) was noticeably larger and longer lasting. The coastal front often sets up around the Southern State. And that happened big time during the February front end dump where you had 5" in JM land, 7" here and 10+ north of the Southern. Add the March misses and that's why it's a B+. Still a great winter and in the top 80 percent.

[Guest Pamela]

I go up to Seacliff for business once a week and pay very close attention to snow pack. Last winter there was a time where the extreme North Shores snow pack was double the extreme South Shores.

 

I live on the N. Shore and work on the South...so I'm afforded the opportunity daily to observe potential differences when there is snow on the ground.  During February there were times when the snow depth was 20 times the depth on the S. Shore.

 

Retrieved my posted observations from a day that month:

 

I drove north along the Sagitikos Parkway today...roughly from Babylon to Kings Park...steepest gradient I can recall...saw huge bare areas in south facings spots along Sunrise Highway...a couple miles north of that...good solid snow cover...a few more miles north...near the L.I.E...looked like a good 10 to 12 inch snowpack...a mile north of the Northern State Parkway...looked like at least 15 inches...by the time I got to Kings Park...especially on north facing hills...it looked like I was in the Sierras.

[Guest Pamela]

Sure you can pull something out of nothing. How about most recently Feb 2013 with "Nemo" and the ugly setup around that from the Pacific.

 

I've forgotten how the weather maps looked that day; but climatologically speaking, there is no more likely time to get a major snowstorm in these parts than the first 15 days of February. 

 

In a sense, this is illustrative of the dual nature of climatology:  It can overcome many negative factors; despite many positive factors, it cannot be overcome. 

[SnoSki14]

Gfs puts the real torch on hold until post 12/12 but that is nearly 10 days away so who knows exactly what things will look like.

Things do look kind of seasonable these next 8 or 9 days or maybe slightly above because of higher mins. A coastal type low could make it interesting for portions of New England especially the interior.

It's just unfortunate that the period after is when we really may torch rather than turning the corner like we thought we might've by mid month or the 15-20 period.

[The Plowsman]

Amen!

[REDMK6GLI]

Any lows coming up the coast next week would likely be a rainstorm in the city and coast

without any cold air available on the ensembles. Check out how much above normal

Canada and the Upper Midwest is going to get heading into mid-December.

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_9.png

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png

Agreed, just stagnant pacific air with some brief shallow shots of cold air until we get some cooperation from the MJO's tropical forcing and/or the PVA disturbed to get it to split to kick start some blocking.

Im also interested in that chart weathergun posted yesterday showing a stratospheric cooling event. IF that comes to fruition that may be throwing quite the monkey wrench into some winter forecasts. Wayyyy out there and that model has been known to be inconsistent so only time will tell i suppose

[PB GFI]

Any lows coming up the coast next week would likely be a rainstorm in the city and coast

without any cold air available on the ensembles. Check out how much above normal 

Canada and the Upper Midwest is going to get heading into mid-December.

 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_9.png

 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png

Amazingly the 0z Euro OP in it`s 6  to 10 is very cold here . However those anomalies  to that degree do not slide  east in the 10 to 15 . Those anomalies show up to those heights there because there splits are way colder than ours and I know when people see that map it could send some over the edge . We do not see  the plus 15 C s.     Check out the day 10 -15 850`s through the NE . 288 ( plus 5 )?  is the warmest 850 I can find and with a  W flow prob one of our warmest days . By 360 - 850`s are not a torch and the flow is  NW ( albeit  pacific cold air ) Not arctic in nature so probably not COLD at the surface but Not a TORCH - N ?

 

For a small victory we do avoid this biggest warmer departures as our flow is never really SW . When you add up day 1 - 10 at KNYC we probably  eek out a N departure .   Day 10 -15 are the warmest no doubt . But than again this is no shock and non of the drivers for the winter have changed .

So long termTorch cxl - Winter not cxld .

[PB GFI]

It's typical for the warmest departures to set up from near Bismark to International falls during an El Nino December.

But for us it means that any cold  shots will be stale and benefit the interior more for snow chances since the air masses

will be Pacific in origin.

 

Strongest correlation to Upper Midwest warmth

 

COR.gif

I am looking at it in terms of departures . Day 1- 10 looked like we were gona get gassed from 5 to 10 days ago on the Euro ensembles and that broke down.

 

Stale yes - my only argument is , its not a torch and the departures 1- 10 should show that .  As far as snow not the pattern for the coastal plain , however it may snow again in the LHV next week and that`s not bad considering what the 500 looked like a week ago ,

 

I think Dec will look like 02 - You are likely that see the sliver of below on the EC

[REDMK6GLI]

To equal departures close to december 02' levels we are gonna have to have quite a cold spell post 15-20th to achieve -1/-2 departures. I dont think the EC averages more than +2 for the warm part of the month before the pattern goes to colder than normal. We may get some +5-6 days ABOVE NORMAL but i do see raging torch with a SE ridge toasting us. In short the winter doom and gloom posts will continue the next 7-10 days regardless of what models say and busts calls plentiful as well.

[Brian5671]

Just seems like we can't buy any west based -NAO going back through last winter and now starting this winter, it's often modeled in fantasy land but never develops.

[REDMK6GLI]

Just seems like we can't buy any west based -NAO going back through last winter and now starting this winter, it's often modeled in fantasy land but never develops.

October it mades it home around greenland. Historically and chris has posted this ad nauseum substantial october blocking promotes blocking during december and on. I would be downright shocked if we didnt get some substantial blocking periods this winter. Weak El Nino's often feature strong -NAO blocking episodes. This was forecasted to happen your statement is fairly premature my friend

[MJO812]

If the Euro verifies for next week, inland areas are going to see a nasty icestorm with the 1st storm. The 2nd storm is cold enough for everyone but it's the only model that shows the 2nd storm.

[IsentropicLift]

Anthony, the pattern doesn't really support two systems closing off like that. The steady flow of energy into SW Canada is helping to deamplify the Western ridge and keep the flow fast across the CONUS. I agree that it bears watching, but it seems to be nothing more than a fluke weenie run at this time.

[MJO812]

Anthony, the pattern doesn't really support two systems closing off like that. The steady flow of energy into SW Canada is helping to deamplify the Western ridge and keep the flow fast across the CONUS. I agree that it bears watching, but it seems to be nothing more than a fluke weenie run at this time.

Even if a +PNA develops?

[PB GFI]

Anthony, the pattern doesn't really support two systems closing off like that. The steady flow of energy into SW Canada is helping to deamplify the Western ridge and keep the flow fast across the CONUS. I agree that it bears watching, but it seems to be nothing more than a fluke weenie run at this time.

Don`t sleep on this one .The CMC EURO , its control and the ensembles have it . The JMA has it . My take is once it pops up again at 12z it get people`s attention . ( just away from the coast ) .

[NaoPos]

Anthony, the pattern doesn't really support two systems closing off like that. The steady flow of energy into SW Canada is helping to deamplify the Western ridge and keep the flow fast across the CONUS. I agree that it bears watching, but it seems to be nothing more than a fluke weenie run at this time.

heh?

anytime you get a PNA spike, a shortwave can amplify and drop into the states. How far south remains to be seen. The euro had a weird evololution, but probably not a fluke in regards to a shortwave rounding the top and amplifying.

[REDMK6GLI]

Don`t sleep on this one .The CMC EURO , its control and the ensembles have it . The JMA has it . My take is once it pops up again at 12z it get people`s attention . ( just away from the coast ) .

Agreed, much like the turkey day storm this is purely an inland event as its a stale bread air mass tainted with pacific air that will be entrenched in our area.