uncle W Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 by this time in 2001 and 2011 I knew the winter was going to be bad...this year I don't feel that way...I still think it will get interesting at some point...The nao is still forecast to be positive which is a negative...The AO forecast is better and some members in the spaghetti plots are way down the chart...some winters start out as though it was a dud and a month later there is a foot of snow on the ground...If this year has one good storm I'll be happy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 To nitpick...we torched in the days preceding Christmas. Despite all the travel headaches etc, Id take 12/15 - 1/1 to be cold and snowy. Christmas weather is really timing and luck..Dec 19th 2009,15 inches of snow,,by the 25th slush puddles wiped out by rain..December 1998,one of the warmest Decembers on record..cool down right before Christmas then 2 inches of snow on the 23rd and 24th..there are numerous other occasions..uncle can tell you a few..another blowtorch Dec 1997..a day after Christmas there was light snow,1989 one of the coldest Decembers on record..Christmas day and most of the month bare ground.Dec 1987 very warm for Christmas..2 days later, 3 inches of snow..really it's all luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Some flurries here in freehold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Some flurries here in freehold.. Same. Lightly snowing here. Long live the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Patience my friends Euro is the only one that sends the MJO into the COD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Christmas weather is really timing and luck..Dec 19th 2009,15 inches of snow,,by the 25th slush puddles wiped out by rain..December 1998,one of the warmest Decembers on record..cool down right before Christmas then 2 inches of snow on the 23rd and 24th..there are numerous other occasions..uncle can tell you a few..another blowtorch Dec 1997..a day after Christmas there was light snow,1989 one of the coldest Decembers on record..Christmas day and most of the month bare ground.Dec 1987 very warm for Christmas..2 days later, 3 inches of snow..really it's all luck Right ... one of these years we will hit. 1947 was close (12/26). I think the daily record for nyc on Christmas is only around 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Flurries near Union on the GSP. Was sleeting earlier in Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Sleeting now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Sleeting now same here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Picked up a light coating on some grassy surfaces at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 EURO 12z shows a decent event for next Tuesday. It looks a bit warm but something to watch for. I doubt it's anything more than a rainstorm for the city but this could setup for the next storm around December 13-15 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 gfs day 10 -PNA, +NAO, +EPO, 70's across the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 gfs day 10 -PNA, +NAO, +EPO, 70's across the countryi doubt we get anything like that. I don't think the models are getting it right. Just like all summer long we had potential heat waves day 8 and beyond and never came to fruition. AllSnow I can appreciate your hard work and PBP but id say give it rest beyond 5 days. In fact most models are wrong even beyond 60 hours. I still think these models start cooling off and 70's climo is against 70's in this part of the country. And if it does happen they'll most likely be a sharp cold front dropping temps into the 30's the next day. Hopefully we don't get a winter that only features cold to hot cold to hot. We need a Greenland block and positive PNA joined by a negative EPO for us to get a nice event, although we could always get a sneak up storm that could drop a few inches just unlikely at this point in this pattern. Still don't think we get 70's around here in fact I don't even think we get 60's for the rest of this month in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 gfs day 10 -PNA, +NAO, +EPO, 70's across the country Euro 12z OP KNYC Day 8 splits 33- 22 Day 9 splits 33- 18 Day 10 12z temp is 25 3 SD POS PNA GFS DAY 8 PNA is POS PNA no SE ridge Def sux for snow but we never bake . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 i doubt we get anything like that. I don't think the models are getting it right. Just like all summer long we had potential heat waves day 8 and beyond and never came to fruition. AllSnow I can appreciate your hard work and PBP but id say give it rest beyond 5 days. In fact most models are wrong even beyond 60 hours. I still think these models start cooling off and 70's climo is against 70's in this part of the country. And if it does happen they'll most likely be a sharp cold front dropping temps into the 30's the next day. Hopefully we don't get a winter that only features cold to hot cold to hot. We need a Greenland block and positive PNA joined by a negative EPO for us to get a nice event, although we could always get a sneak up storm that could drop a few inches just unlikely at this point in this pattern. Still don't think we get 70's around here in fact I don't even think we get 60's for the rest of this month in NYC. Last Dec. started warm and had another warm shot just before the first day of winter, when it was 71. XMAS day was under 32 all day however and the month was only a degree above normal with all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 i doubt we get anything like that. I don't think the models are getting it right. Just like all summer long we had potential heat waves day 8 and beyond and never came to fruition. AllSnow I can appreciate your hard work and PBP but id say give it rest beyond 5 days. In fact most models are wrong even beyond 60 hours. I still think these models start cooling off and 70's climo is against 70's in this part of the country. And if it does happen they'll most likely be a sharp cold front dropping temps into the 30's the next day. Hopefully we don't get a winter that only features cold to hot cold to hot. We need a Greenland block and positive PNA joined by a negative EPO for us to get a nice event, although we could always get a sneak up storm that could drop a few inches just unlikely at this point in this pattern. Still don't think we get 70's around here in fact I don't even think we get 60's for the rest of this month in NYC. Its very hard to get into the 60s in NYC in December without some degree of a SE ridge of big cutter shooting into the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 gfs day 10 -PNA, +NAO, +EPO, 70's across the country It would actually be cool to see such massive widespread warmth by mid December just from a historical POV. If it's going to be warm we might as well set some insane records. And no this is not meant to be a troll post or a continuation of any negative thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 It would actually be cool to see such massive widespread warmth by mid December just from a historical POV. If it's going to be warm we might as well set some insane records. And no this is not meant to be a troll post or a continuation of any negative thoughts. You're never beating this http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us1202.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 You're never beating this http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us1202.php Yeah that's impressive what were the temps during that period around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Yeah that's impressive what were the temps during that period around here. I think some places reached the low 80s, I remember it very well....then 2-3 weeks later in snowed on Christmas Eve, the pattern flipped rather quickly and it stayed cold for a good part of January too I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I think some places reached the low 80s, I remember it very well....then 2-3 weeks later in snowed on Christmas Eve, the pattern flipped rather quickly and it stayed cold for a good part of January too I believe. Wow. I don't know how much Mets enjoy seeing such extreme anomalies but as a weather weenie they are quite a sight to behold. I remember March 2012 and how insane that month was with places like Chicago seeing a string of highs in the mid 80s in mid March crazy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Euro 12z OP KNYC Day 8 splits 33- 22 Day 9 splits 33- 18 Day 10 12z temp is 25 3 SD POS PNA GFS DAY 8 PNA is POS PNA no SE ridge Def sux for snow but we never bake . It looks like weatherbell does their own PNA index which doesn't match the official CPC data that we use as a reference. I also notice that their other climate indices are different from CPC official. The PNA only got to -1 recently and not the close to -3 that they are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 It looks like weatherbell does their own PNA index which doesn't match the official CPC data that we use as a reference. I also notice that their other climate indices are different from CPC official. The PNA only got to -1 recently and not the close to -3 that they are showing. pna.sprd2.gif post-7472-0-27754900-1417556123.png Looks like day 5 and 7 match . I'm just not sure how Ryan calculates them. I just emailed him and asked. It's a good question . Curious to see his methodology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 DAY 7 SNAPCAST http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/allmaps_f192_us.html http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml Because, I know where this thread is going........... Fearless or Foolish???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Yeah, I'll never understand how anybody could bemoan last winter. A few inland locations were arguably on track for 100" before somebody raised the shields, but anything more than what we got in terms of cold and snow would have been borderline obscene.I really don't want to have to rehash exactly why I gave it a B plus here. Quick summary right at the coast, I'm talking within 5 miles of the Atlantic we had some heartbreaking change overs the rest of the board did not have. For me that's the difference between the A and B plus. Also I really don't think it was an A plus anywhere. Had the March storms panned out and people beat 95/96 thats an A plus winter with A plus meaning the best.I like what uncle has to say about knowing certain winters would be a dud. Take 97/98 for example heading into a winter with a near record Niño the writing was on the wall that Pacific air would blast through almost unabated. We don't have that here obviously. And I think if the last two weeks had happened in January even coastal areas would have a nice snow cover right now. I mean powder freak at Stowe had 50" during November and is talking about the best early season ski conditions in years if ever. Bangor Maine had it's snowiest November too. It was just to early and it is still to early. After this little blip of warmth upcoming it's only a mater of time till we get MEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I really don't want to have to rehash exactly why I gave it a B plus here. Quick summary right at the coast, I'm talking within 5 miles of the Atlantic we had some heartbreaking change overs the rest of the board did not have. For me that's the difference between the A and B plus. Also I really don't think it was an A plus anywhere. Had the March storms panned out and people beat 95/96 thats an A plus winter with A plus meaning the best. See the thing is that you have precisely defined what an "A" winter is to you: 1995-96 and nothing else. That's fine; every one is entitled to define what they feel merits praise and the amount that they can justifiably heap upon it. However, most people have a broader definition of an "A" winter; narrowing the scope to the point where only the absolute best merits that designation means that virtually no subsequent winter can hope to live up to such a rating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 What's with the ground being covered in snow as something to be happy about? It gets brown, icy and disgusting. I never understood that fascination. I think its a big deal. The length of time the ground is well covered with snow is a very big indicator of climate and potential climate change when observed over the course of time. Snow, with its high albedo, plays an enormous role in keeping the air colder than bare ground. Lastly, I'm out in the countryside, so the negative aesthetic characteristics you cite don't manifest quite as much as in a more urban environment. There are very few things more picturesque than the sight of the woods covered with snow as one peers out one's window on a winter's day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 0z Euro shows a coastal storm next week with the low stalling near NYC. Surface temps look cold just to the west of NYC while 850s are warm. A lot of rain for the area just like what the GGEM shows. 0z Euro is also developing another coastal low at 180 hours. It ends up just east of the benchmark. Light snow a long the coast. There would be plenty of cold air to work with if the storm was closer to the coast. Things just got really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 0z Euro shows a coastal storm next week with the low stalling near NYC. Surface temps look cold just to the west of NYC while 850s are warm. A lot of rain for the area just like what the GGEM shows. 0z Euro is also developing another coastal low at 180 hours. It ends up just east of the benchmark. Light snow a long the coast. There would be plenty of cold air to work with if the storm was closer to the coast. Things just got really interesting. That second low looks on the strong side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 That second low looks on the strong side! Here is the 1st low Here is the 2nd low Really interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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