Guest Pamela Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 My biggest takeaway is there is probably going to be some chances coming up here. This pattern is going to cause problems with the models. I'm sure it will look completely different next run, but the idea is there. Now if we produce snow or not, who knows. This period will without a doubt be the best chance so far though I'm mean there's no doubt there will be some snow in the area over the course of the winter...best window is usually that 40 day period between 10 January and 20 February. NYC is no great snow town...but its a pretty rare winter that sees basically nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 as quickly as one model giveth another taketh away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 as quickly as one model giveth another taketh away. I don't pay too much attention to the models until at least two of the more reputable ones show something inside about 72 hours...maybe inside 96 when its a favorable time of the year for snow and odds are a bit better...this saves one from considerable aggravation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 as quickly as one model giveth another taketh away. You knew that 0z Euro run was overdone. Our best hope is that the more progressive 12z can catch us with some white stuff as sheared out pieces of energy eject our south. Some light snow would be better than nothing for our December totals. But relying on progressive -EPO patterns can be hit or miss for a light or even moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Some light snow would be better than nothing for our December totals. Soo true...if Central Park can record 1.0 more inches of snow before midnight on the 31st, my forecast of 2 inches total for the month for the Park will be just perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 No talk about the 12z GGEM? has a SECS/MECS for the area Day 5/6... The GGEM was a bonafide MECS, as was the GGEM Ens. The problem is...it's the GGEM and it now has zero support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Wes... at his best http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/24/two-week-outlook-trending-colder-and-stormy-into-the-new-year-but-lots-of-uncertainty/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GFSx anomaly now down to +5.5deg. for next 7 days , almost halve of yesterday's. But still only below normal highs, no below normal lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 For those still interested in a simple numerical number to follow on whether or how close we are getting to an Artic air breakout: Latest GFSx still has a pretty positive anomaly for the next 7 days of +4.6degs. but steady progress is being made from the +12degs a few days ago. However, while below normal Highs are indicated, it is yet to signal a below normal Low temp. within its purview. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 For those still interested in a simple numerical number to follow on whether or how close we are getting to an Artic air breakout: Latest GFSx still has a pretty positive anomaly for the next 7 days of +4.6degs. but steady progress is being made from the +12degs a few days ago. However, while below normal Highs are indicated, it is yet to signal a below normal Low temp. within its purview. Stay tuned. 6z GFS ensembles show -2 C for the 5 day period starting the 29 thru the 3rd . Whatever you are seeing on the front end will be gone on the back end . And we stay below normal through the 11th . Moral of the story wave goodbye to the warmth after the 28th for 2 weeks . After that probably too far to see within reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 6z GFS ensembles show -2 C for the 5 day period starting the 29 thru the 3rd . Whatever you are seeing on the front end will be gone on the back end . And we stay below normal through the 11th . Moral of the story wave goodbye to the warmth after the 28th for 2 weeks . After that probably too far to see within reason. Hugging the American guidance I see?The Euro says welcome back SE Ridge post 168 hours. So essentially we average near to just slightly below normal for the 12/30-1/3 period then we head into a gradient pattern where we could very well end up on the warm side if the Euro is seeing the SE Ridge properly. And yes, I'm siding with the Euro over the US guidance right now.....the GEFS and GFS have been giving fits and flopping around every run. Just another pattern change put on hold it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Wes... at his best http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/24/two-week-outlook-trending-colder-and-stormy-into-the-new-year-but-lots-of-uncertainty/ Very difficult time for forecasters since the models are having major problems in this type of pattern .......as has been demonstrated by the 15th - 31st pattern change bust that was advertised to have us shoveling snow by now with below normal temps..........NYC is going to end up close to 3 degrees above normal by the end of the month - much of that caused by the much above normal temps the last few days to continue through the weekend - snowfall as of right now would be well below normal with 1 inch BUT there is still a chance that we could end up with normal snowfall for the month because a few models are still showing a chance of snow at some point next week but as previously mentioned they have been unreliable......... http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.NYC.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Hugging the American guidance I see? The Euro says welcome back SE Ridge post 168 hours. So essentially we average near to just slightly below normal for the 12/30-1/3 period then we head into a gradient pattern where we could very well end up on the warm side if the Euro is seeing the SE Ridge properly. And yes, I'm siding with the Euro over the US guidance right now.....the GEFS and GFS have been giving fits and flopping around every run. Just another pattern change put on hold it appears. FWIW The Euro has not been any better. None of the models have been worth anything past 3-4 days out since November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Hugging the American guidance I see? The Euro says welcome back SE Ridge post 168 hours. So essentially we average near to just slightly below normal for the 12/30-1/3 period then we head into a gradient pattern where we could very well end up on the warm side if the Euro is seeing the SE Ridge properly. And yes, I'm siding with the Euro over the US guidance right now.....the GEFS and GFS have been giving fits and flopping around every run. Just another pattern change put on hold it appears. Around normal is more than good enough for the interior just philly and nyc will have problems and maybe nearby suburbs, but too cold can lead to suppression so it's an ok pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Hugging the American guidance I see? The Euro says welcome back SE Ridge post 168 hours. So essentially we average near to just slightly below normal for the 12/30-1/3 period then we head into a gradient pattern where we could very well end up on the warm side if the Euro is seeing the SE Ridge properly. And yes, I'm siding with the Euro over the US guidance right now.....the GEFS and GFS have been giving fits and flopping around every run. Just another pattern change put on hold it appears. What are you looking at ? 168 - Day 12- Day 15 . Pattern on hold ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Exactly....it keeps getting delayed. Eventually it will get here I suppose. Thanks for reinforcing my point :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 The pattern changes on the 28th. So much so behind the cold front both the euro it's ensembles and the 6z Para snow on the 30th and keeps the neg epo intact thru day 15 Ur right. No pattern change there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Not much of a change here in apparent weather though. Yeah the pattern somewhere else in the hemisphere changes but imo im not seeing much to hope for in the extended range. I know....chaos theory....butterfly flaps its wings in China yada yada yada. Pac jet will rip that EPO to shreds imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Look I hope u nailed it. Im not trying to take anything away from you. I actually had the same dates as a pattern change with a few snow threats but I am throwing in the towel based on recent guidance trends. I know there are still a few holding onto the big change but I am seeing a trend here away from the major change. We'll see what happens though. Happy holidays! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 For those still interested in a simple numerical number to follow on whether or how close we are getting to an Artic air breakout: Latest GFSx still has a pretty positive anomaly for the next 7 days of +4.6degs. but steady progress is being made from the +12degs a few days ago. However, while below normal Highs are indicated, it is yet to signal a below normal Low temp. within its purview. Stay tuned. The 12Z GFSx is down to an anomaly of +4.1degs. and now shows a sub-normal low for a change. Take out Sat & Sun and we are right at normal for latter 5 days of the 7. Tally Ho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 It's been tough to bet against December warmth since 1990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 12z Nam doesn't look bad for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 At least everyone torched this December and not just us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 At least everyone torched this December and not just us. The SE sould have torched the worst, ultimately they didn't because they were so darn cloudy the entire second half of the month and rainy. Atlanta needs one more day below 32 this month or they will break 1984's record of only 3 nights below 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 It's still so odd that late November felt so much colder than this entire month. There was no day this month where it ever felt really cold out unlike November where a few days felt like January. Did we have a colder lows in November than December. We must have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 12PM Roundup NYC: 51 EWR: 55 LGA: 51 JFK: 52 New Brunswick 55 Records look safe: NYC: 63 (1949) EWR: 63 (1949) LGA: 63 (1949) JFK: 59 (1973) New Brunswick: 65 (1964) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 It's still so odd that late November felt so much colder than this entire month. There was no day this month where it ever felt really cold out unlike November where a few days felt like January. Did we have a colder lows in November than December. We must have. Yes (so far) Newark: Nov lowest :21 (11/19) Dec lowest: 23 (12/8) NYC: Nov lowest : 22 (12/19) Dec lowest: 24 (12/8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Torching here...what a crap month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Torching here...what a crap month Dec running similar to 1994, not as extreme. That winter featured a cold Feb with one 10+ inch snowstorm. '94 NYC: +4.7 (trace) EWR: +4.7 (trace) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Dec running similar to 1994, not as extreme. That winter featured a cold Feb with one 10+ inch snowstorm. '94 NYC: +4.7 (trace) EWR: +4.7 (trace) I like that analog to be honest now....especially if the mJo moves into 7-8 mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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