snywx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 39f w/ Lgt Sleet falling.. Didn't see this coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 And how badly is that number skewed because of 2010? a HUGE LOL if you think one year skews a historical average, especially because the chart since the late 1800's is posted one page before this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong, didn't the Boxing Day blizzard happen during an unfavorable pattern? I remember it being a surprise to everyone and the models only agreeing on the storm a day or two before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 a HUGE LOL if you think one year skews a historical average, especially because the chart since the late 1800's is posted one page before this.December 2010 was top 5 all time at Central Park since records began. We're talking about a total that is well above average. A statistical anomaly. Any departure from average that great is going to skew the overall mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong, didn't the Boxing Day blizzard happen during an unfavorable pattern? I remember it being a surprise to everyone and the models only agreeing on the storm a day or two before the event. Massive -NAO and transient +PNA ridge. It was a good pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong, didn't the Boxing Day blizzard happen during an unfavorable pattern? I remember it being a surprise to everyone and the models only agreeing on the storm a day or two before the event. The models sniffed out the storm more than 10 days out, lost it 3-5 days out and then brought it back on Christmas Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 December 2010 was top 5 all time at Central Park since records began. We're talking about a total that is well above average. A statistical anomaly. Any departure from average that great is going to skew the overall mean. Only about a tenth of an inch. It obviously skewed the decade and 30 year average much more but if you're going to back all time its fairly insignificant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 There's always 2012 2013. Less than .5" dec snow and year finished average in NYC with well above in the nemo areas and well above along N coastal Jesery due in part to the son of Sandy and nemo's higher totals there relative to philly which was beyond pathetic that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Massive -NAO and transient +PNA ridge. It was a good pattern... The ridge was unusually far East in the plains that was somewhat rare for big east coast winter storms but the strongly -NAO helped it happen anyway, if that's not as west based as it was that storm is almost surely out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Just give a Feb 06 style KU and the rest of the winter could torch. I'd be happy with one huge storm 20"+ if the rest of winter resembled 01/02 11/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Just give a Feb 06 style KU and the rest of the winter could torch. I'd be happy with one huge storm 20"+ if the rest of winter resembled 01/02 11/12. My preference is always a fairly mild winter with 30 or so inches of snow that's enough and you don't freeze your butt off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong, didn't the Boxing Day blizzard happen during an unfavorable pattern? I remember it being a surprise to everyone and the models only agreeing on the storm a day or two before the event. it was actually a great pattern. There was a near miss the weekend before and then this storm came. But we had it all, blocking, plentiful fresh cold air etc. Pattern broke down for a couple of weeks and then reloaded for the 2 January bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 its sleeting here in northern middlesex county NJ at 9 :15 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 No give me brutality cold with snow from Nov to April. last year was near perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 My preference is always a fairly mild winter with 30 or so inches of snow that's enough and you don't freeze your butt off Sounds like you're pretty well matched to where we live lol..that's your average NYC winter. I'd sign for well below temps, 90 days of snowcover, and wouldn't complain all too much if we didn't get any one snowfall over 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 it was actually a great pattern. There was a near miss the weekend before and then this storm came. But we had it all, blocking, plentiful fresh cold air etc. Pattern broke down for a couple of weeks and then reloaded for the 2 January bombs. Yes the -NAO was so powerful it fought off the influence of the strong La Niña until February. The block persisted for over 5 weeks from mid dec to late jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 No give me brutality cold with snow from Nov to April. last year was near perfect I miss the winters of yore in rural Nebrahoma... weeks upon weeks of temperatures below absolute zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 No give me brutality cold with snow from Nov to April. last year was near perfect I recall people critiquing last winter...saying it was "ok"...but flawed in some aspects. Like they say...a person never appreciates something 'till its gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I recall people critiquing last winter...saying it was "ok"...but flawed in some aspects. Like they say...a person never appreciates something 'till its gone.It's only flaw were the two brief warmups: one in 2nd half of Dec, one in mid January. March was rough for many but I did well with 5.1" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Can you spot the cold front passage?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I recall people critiquing last winter...saying it was "ok"...but flawed in some aspects. Like they say...a person never appreciates something 'till its gone. The cold was great last winter but nearly every event was a nailbiter as they came on at the last minute. There was little blocking or help from the NAO so we were very lucky with the timing and track of these storms, as stronger waves could have evolved into lake cutters, and then from late Feb on we were plagued with constant suppression. There also weren't any huge storms that delivered 18"+ amounts, so people might have thought less of it because of it being more of a parade of moderate/significant snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The cold was great last winter but nearly every event was a nailbiter as they came on at the last minute. There was little blocking or help from the NAO so we were very lucky with the timing and track of these storms, as stronger waves could have evolved into lake cutters, and then from late Feb on we were plagued with constant suppression. There also weren't any huge storms that delivered 18"+ amounts, so people might have thought less of it because of it being more of a parade of moderate/significant snow events. When you get 200% of your average annual snowfall plus plenty of days when the ground was well covered with snow (I had 71 such days, tied with 2002-03 for most this century)...you can overlook the minor shortcomings. This ain't Marquette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 When you get 200% of your average annual snowfall plus plenty of days when the ground was well covered with snow (I had 71 such days, tied with 2002-03 for most this century)...you can overlook the minor shortcomings. This ain't Marquette. A+ post for an A+ winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 A+ post for an A+ winter. Yeah, I'll never understand how anybody could bemoan last winter. A few inland locations were arguably on track for 100" before somebody raised the shields, but anything more than what we got in terms of cold and snow would have been borderline obscene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 When you get 200% of your average annual snowfall plus plenty of days when the ground was well covered with snow (I had 71 such days, tied with 2002-03 for most this century)...you can overlook the minor shortcomings. This ain't Marquette. What's with the ground being covered in snow as something to be happy about? It gets brown, icy and disgusting. I never understood that fascination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 What's with the ground being covered in snow as something to be happy about? It gets brown, icy and disgusting. I never understood that fascination. In jersey city yes, elsewhere away from the cities no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Last winter was a A but the cold/dry end of feb and march was annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 What's with the ground being covered in snow as something to be happy about? It gets brown, icy and disgusting. I never understood that fascination. Wintry appeal, to borrow a phrase from the NE forum. A blanket of white instead of the hard, dormant lawns and ground cover. But I agree the shine wears off quickly in urban areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Yeah, I'll never understand how anybody could bemoan last winter. A few inland locations were arguably on track for 100" before somebody raised the shields, but anything more than what we got in terms of cold and snow would have been borderline obscene. To nitpick...we torched in the days preceding Christmas. Despite all the travel headaches etc, Id take 12/15 - 1/1 to be cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Much above normal NYC snowfall has been rare during El Nino Decembers in NYC since 1980. Only 2 out of 10 years had a sufficiently negative AO pattern for both great snowfall and below normal temperatures. Snowfall outcomes were generally similar if the temperature departure was closer to +1 or +5 for the month. The current snowfall average for NYC in December is 4.8" Without the strong Greenland blocking pattern, Pacific air dominates North America with a strong Aleutian Low raising the EPO. Departures calculated current 30 year average of 37.5: December 2009.......-1.6.....12.4" December 2006.......+6.1.... 0" December 2004.......+0.9.....3.0" December 2002.......-1.5.....11.0" December 1997.......+0.8....T December 1994.......+4.7....T december 1991.......+2.1....0.7" December 1987......+2.0....2.6" December 1986......+1.5....0.6" December 1982......+5.3....3.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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