Doorman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Cherry picking are we ? So No euro ? No Para ? Don't look at the CPC for Dec 28 thru jan 4. Will make u sad. Yes.Yes.Yes,Yes. Euro -Ens for balance same vibe ----snow parameters look weak -imho http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014122112/ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_eus_10.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Yes.Yes.Yes,Yes.Yes dm has no emotional attachment to snowfall Euro -Ens for balance same vibe ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_11.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014122112/ec mwf-ens_z500_mslp_eus_10.png Very fair . However the euro and gfs are roughly 48 hours apart. So at 240 as per euro. You already had to shovel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 PB send me your Flux Capacitor for x-mas so I can go back to the future........ http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/ECMWF/12/US/ecmwfUS_200_spd_168.gif window shopping from one op run--- verbatim or forecasting from Ensemble Guidance it's your choice http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122112/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The +PDO December composite was much different from this December. Neither the October -AO analogs nor the November +PDO analogs worked out for December. 14.gif COMP.png Isolating December rather than taking DJF masks some of the inter-year variability, however. Of those years, when we look at the mean 500mb composite of 1959, 1986, 1987, and 1993, for December, it was similar to this December. And these years were cold for the USA when taking the DJF mean. Point being, December 2014's pattern is far from a death sentence for this winter's temperatures or pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Another sad weenie gfs run. It has nothing but cutters then cold and dry then back to cutter. I hope this doesn't end up the type of winter where it always looks good far away but when you get closer it stinks.i have been saying this for a while now the pattern has been for cutters since thanksgiving and there's nothing strong enough modeled yet to change that, however I am still holding out hope that things will change being that El Niño is a blackened winter threat, I just feel bad for the people who thought we were going to get a year like last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 i have been saying this for a while now the pattern has been for cutters since thanksgiving and there's nothing strong enough modeled yet to change that, however I am still holding out hope that things will change being that El Niño is a blackened winter threat, I just feel bad for the people who thought we were going to get a year like last yearYeah records are hard to break for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Both the GFS and European ensembles agree this may be your window . Then there may be a pullback again . Tight squeeze . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean continues to hold onto the SE Ridge longer since the -AO drop keeps getting weaker next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean continues to hold onto the SE Ridge longer since the -AO drop keeps getting weaker next week. ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_6.png ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10.png For the lovers of the GFS here is the 6z ensemble 2m temps anomalies with a NEG AO . The warmer Euro shows that the AO actually goes POS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Latest GFSx shows 1. No below normal temps. on any of the next 7 days. 2. An anomaly of, +12.5degs. --- more suitable for the third week of a normal Nov. 3. Making the last 2 days of the month have an anomaly of -7degs?, I think we will finish Dec. at about +2.3 ---- +2.7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 right now 1986-87 is the best analog of the bunch...It didn't get going until the second half of January...it had a three or four week period of snow and cold... Funny you say that. I started the season with 1976-'77 as my two main analogs, and upon seeing the progression of January, have taken a liking to 1965-'66 (I believe, don't have data in front of me) and 1986-'87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Man at this juncture those above normal snowfall forecasts look questionable. IF we dont get down some measurable snow after christmas and first 10 days of january its gonna be difficult the rest of the season IMO. Im optomistic about this year still but with NAO being less and less influential and the AO not being as negative we are down the EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Man at this juncture those above normal snowfall forecasts look questionable. IF we dont get down some measurable snow after christmas and first 10 days of january its gonna be difficult the rest of the season IMO. Im optomistic about this year still but with NAO being less and less influential and the AO not being as negative we are down the EPO.EPO can often trump the other teleconnections so if the euro and gfs are to be believed, we *should* be into a pattern featuring a large western EPO ridge at least for a short period of time. You might have seen my posts from last week targeting the 12/28-1/5 period? I think this is our best shot for some widespread snows. If the pattern fails to deliver, I may have to check the free agent market for a punter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Bad MJO phases can be overcome . But without a NEG EPO/AO it really can`t happen . Root those 2 on or we go back to a holding pattern after the 10th . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 Bad MJO phases can be overcome . But without a NEG EPO/AO it really can`t happen . Root those 2 on or we go back to a holding pattern after the 10th . I agree paul, IF we get nothing up to the 10th it'll then be time to look towards end of january-early february. Not bad for me since it wont be bone cold then. Rather it be warmer if its not gonna snow, thats my personal preference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Funny you say that. I started the season with 1976-'77 as my two main analogs, and upon seeing the progression of January, have taken a liking to 1965-'66 (I believe, don't have data in front of me) and 1986-'87. But CFSv2 weeklies show just a small patch of sub normal 500mb gph in the 3rd. week and then back to above normal heights throughout country and cold locked in Canada. I think I will soon be invoking the term I invented for the '82-83 winter "THE TEN DAY WINTER". Everything winterlike occured in the second week of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 For the lovers of the GFS here is the 6z ensemble 2m temps anomalies with a NEG AO . The warmer Euro shows that the AO actually goes POS . The longer range JMA weeklies and Euro weeklies were hinting at a colder pattern setting up for the first week of January relative to the last week of December. Now the week 2 ensembles have been catching on to a shift to milder again by around January 7th which the weeklies were showing. The big deviation from the October -AO/ snow cover signal was that a -AO didn't develop as scheduled by December.This week is very telling in that the models have backed off the projected -AO drop strength. So the models forecasting a generally +AO to start January would mean that the Western Atlantic Ridge would build back in for the second week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Great winter going down the drain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Freezing Rain Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ300 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014NJZ001-PAZ054-055-222300-/O.NEW.KPHI.ZR.Y.0006.141222T2300Z-141223T0900Z/SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG300 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO4 AM EST TUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZINGRAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AMEST TUESDAY.* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEWJERSEY.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF ANINCH.* TIMING...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW EARLYTHIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL FREEZING RAIN THROUGHTHE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FREEZING RAIN ISEXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT,ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND ALSO ON BRIDGES ANDOVERPASSES.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW 30S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ORFREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY306 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014...FREEZING RAIN LIKELY TONIGHT FOR ORANGE COUNTY...NYZ067-221700-/O.NEW.KOKX.ZR.Y.0005.141222T2300Z-141223T0900Z/ORANGE-306 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO4 AM EST TUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A FREEZINGRAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AMEST TUESDAY.* LOCATIONS...ORANGE COUNTY.* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 MPH OR LESS.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPS EARLY THIS EVENING AND CHANGESTO PLAIN RAIN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ANDTHROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT DUE TO TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOWFREEZING AND WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF ICY ROADS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ORFREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.&&$MPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Great winter going down the drain? It's never a great winter until it's happened... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Great winter going down the drain? It's not looking good, I think that much is obvious. No -NAO (what's it going to take to get a -NAO around here? Seems like it's been years) and EPO ridge breaks down fast and we get Pac Jet and terrible MJO phases...If we don't get something b/w 1/1 and 1/10, we could be toast until 2/1 at least. Ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's not looking good, I think that much is obvious. No -NAO (what's it going to take to get a -NAO around here? Seems like it's been years) and EPO ridge breaks down fast and we get Pac Jet and terrible MJO phases...If we don't get something b/w 1/1 and 1/10, we could be toast until 2/1 at least. Ugly.Honestly whether we "cash in" or not in the Jan 1-10th period i would welcome a torch and warm for january if its not gonna snow. I HATE when its sunny and bone cold, useless cold air with no precip is a kick in the nuts. I would have no issue having a few upper 50-lower 60's days in january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Honestly whether we "cash in" or not in the Jan 1-10th period i would welcome a torch and warm for january if its not gonna snow. I HATE when its sunny and bone cold, useless cold air with no precip is a kick in the nuts. I would have no issue having a few upper 50-lower 60's days in january If we get a +EPO, AO and NAO with MJO moving through 3-6, you might get your wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The main problem continues to be the terrible location of the Pacific jet stream. We needed a trough that went negative tilt quickly and helped to retrograde the Christmas Eve surface low towards the Western lakes. In reality, the system is going to end up much further East and weaker than it appeared five days ago. As you can see on last night's 00z ECMWF run, the energy pouring into the Pacific NW is knocking down the Western ridge and deamplifying the downstream pattern. The good news is that looking ahead, the long range Euro is once again showing a somewhat favorable pattern with a coastal low moving into the 50/50 position by day 9 which helps to lock in some cold air over southeast Canada with another southern stream system approaching by day 10. At least with an El Nino the steady train of southern stream systems is going to continue, so if you can briefly get the chips to fall into place, the likelyhood of something significant is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Honestly whether we "cash in" or not in the Jan 1-10th period i would welcome a torch and warm for january if its not gonna snow. I HATE when its sunny and bone cold, useless cold air with no precip is a kick in the nuts. I would have no issue having a few upper 50-lower 60's days in january Might as well. Once the weenie rage passes it'll be time to embrace the positives like lower heating bills, good traffic conditions, no shoveling. If I know the winter will suck I root for an epic historical torch for the winter like 70s in January and early blossoming flowers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 ouch at the ensemble runs from last night. that big -epo from a few days ago is totally gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 The main problem continues to be the terrible location of the Pacific jet stream. We needed a trough that went negative tilt quickly and helped to retrograde the Christmas Eve surface low towards the Western lakes. In reality, the system is going to end up much further East and weaker than it appeared five days ago. As you can see on last night's 00z ECMWF run, the energy pouring into the Pacific NW is knocking down the Western ridge and deamplifying the downstream pattern. The good news is that looking ahead, the long range Euro is once again showing a somewhat favorable pattern with a coastal low moving into the 50/50 position by day 9 which helps to lock in some cold air over southeast Canada with another southern stream system approaching by day 10. At least with an El Nino the steady train of southern stream systems is going to continue, so if you can briefly get the chips to fall into place, the likelyhood of something significant is high. I agree with you're last statement. I think inland areas are still in for a great winter. With multiple snow events in January. The problem was, is and will continue to be at the coast. These moist miller A's are just not going to get it done without perfectly placed cold air sources. To much cold and we get suppression which could be an issue at some point. This is going to be a 50 miles N and W of the city winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 At least with an El Nino the steady train of southern stream systems is going to continue, so if you can briefly get the chips to fall into place, the likelyhood of something significant is high. All it will take is one good storm for people to be back on the bandwagon..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 ouch at the ensemble runs from last night. that big -epo from a few days ago is totally gone Even PBI is hedging his bets... and Yanks is clinging to approaching southern streamers at D10. It's gotten bad in here. Several weeks ago, this was to be our prime period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Even PBI is hedging his bets... and Yanks is clinging to approaching southern streamers at D10. It's gotten bad in here. Several weeks ago, this was to be our prime period. As long as the SECS and MECS show up in day ten forecasts on models to dissappear by seven days out.. Well, as in the words of Annie, "tomorrow is only a day away" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.