CIK62 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Regarding NAO, PNA and snowstorm possibilities, I think DT said the danger period is when crossing the 'Neutral Zone' [notify Capt. Kirk and the Federation now]---lol--- in either direction is when storms are most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Soo very, very prescient...I don't always toot my own horn, but when I do, I do it after stating the obvious... Stay warm my friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The Euro has a transient -AO signal since the best height rises are ending up more east instead of Davis Strait centered. It's not showing that big Alaska to the Pole and Greenland pattern like last year. The Control is more bullish , and really reloads the cold by day 15 it splits the vortex and sends a piece into Hudson bay and another into Europe .The ensembles are a little smoother . But even on the ensembles it forces the vortex on our side of the pole and that`s not a bad starting point . ( Let`s hope it`s a starting point ) . Trough in here by day 7 - Didn`t mean to make it sound later than that . Was referencing the push of the vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The Control is more bullish , and really reloads the cold by day 15 it splits the vortex and sends a piece into Hudson bay and another into Europe .The ensembles are a little smoother . But even on the ensembles it forces the vortex on our side of the pole and that`s not a bad starting point . ( Let`s hope it`s a starting point ) . That control is very erratic past day 5 so I only look at the ensemble means. Notice how the GEFS ensembles have been showing eye candy AO drops near the end of the runs that have been muted the closer in we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Through 12/20 temp dep / precip NYC:+0.5 (4.85) LGA: -0.1 (5.05) JFK: +1.5 (5.63) EWR: +1.2 (3.34) TTN: +1.3 (3.10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2014122106&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0 last frames of the GFS and GEM Ensembles today in the words of Sir Charles Barkley Just Terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Wiggum Storm incoming between 12/28-1/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2014122106&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0 we.gif last frames of the GFS and GEM Ensembles today in the words of Sir Charles Barkley Just Terrible Whats terrible about that? Its a mean which is showing a ridge out west and a trof in the East with a flat Se ridge. Looks ok to me for a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Whats terrible about that? Its a mean which is showing a ridge out west and a trof in the East. Looks ok to me for a mean. the weather popes..... dope Finally let me state that I do have some concerns but the cold pattern is NOT going to last past Mid january over the eastern third of the country. There are couple reasons for this. FIRST the QBO is NOT weakening at all. The latest data from ESRL shows that if anything the QBO is still at -25.5. This is a very bad sign for those counting on sustained cold winter patterns over the eastern half of country. http://www.wxrisk.com/the-dts/ he had a wake up call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 the weather popes..... dope http://www.wxrisk.com/the-dts/ he had a wake up call Im confused....who you calling a dope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Im confused....who you calling a dope? Dope...means the story Slang ---Straight Dope http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=straight+dope Ralph ...no insult to you dm last leg of the ESRL http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/mslp_f360_nh.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Bluewave and I had that DT conversation yesterday. There are going to be a few events in the pattern past the 28th and bluewave has been saying there's prob a mid month pullback and most agreed. No one should have expected wire to wire cold. We said the pattern would change on the 28th and it will. Then you should get a pull back mid Jan . That does not mean winters over it does imply like we spoke about yesterday if you were expecting last year's extremes you were being unreasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Lost in all of this concern about the AO, NAO, EPO, QBO, PNA, SSW, SSTs, & the need for some SSRIs, is that every index doesn't have to line up... actually... it's better if they don't. Sustained cold is not necessary for snow. Does it make it easier? Yes and No - so - not really. Give me a Jumbled clusterf*ck of long range indices, a favorable gradient pattern with cold air nearby in Canada & an active STJ, and I'll take that every day of the week and twice on Sunday. I realize it's a progressive flow, but that does not mean it is less likely to produce. It's just less likely to produce a HECS. Line up all of the the indices just right, and you'll end up with the perfect storm...probably for DC/Va. We don't need perfect. I agree with the sustained cold not showing up, but so what. It doesn't take too much digging to see that some of our best snowy winters weren't all that cold. Move this to banter if you want, I have no horse in this race. Just calling it like it is. -Patrick the weather popes..... dope Finally let me state that I do have some concerns but the cold pattern is NOT going to last past Mid january over the eastern third of the country. There are couple reasons for this. FIRST the QBO is NOT weakening at all. The latest data from ESRL shows that if anything the QBO is still at -25.5. This is a very bad sign for those counting on sustained cold winter patterns over the eastern half of country. http://www.wxrisk.com/the-dts/ he had a wake up call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The key to watch for an El Nino winter will be what happens January 16-February 28 since they are back-loaded by nature. We are still a ways off on calling what will happen that far out in time. There was snow on the ground in NYC Jan 17 1978 then it went crazy so in pos enso back loaded winters happen . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I agree with the NAO but that ok with me , I don`t for the life of me understand what the fascination is with a NEG NAO . You run a huge risk of suppression . Everyone thinks KU storms are a dime a dozen , we have probably lost many more EC storms due to a NEG NAO then without . For the last time F THE NAO . It is not needed here to snow . -EPO/-AO brings the cold . Get a storm track underneath and you snow on snow . Who wants 2 weeks of cold and dry and then a whiff . People have no idea what is needed here, they hear NAO and think it`s some kind of fail safe. ITS NOT Violently agree with everything you said here. -AO is far more important if you want snows. There are charts posted on other sub-forums here that show this very well. It's almost like people think it's a prerequisite to have a -NAO for any snow, and it's tiring to see people keep saying as much. Now if you're looking for some big time storm, you probably want a -NAO. Either way, you still need everything to come together for it to work out. I mean, I've seen perfect patterns that haven't paid off. Also, crappy patterns that have paid off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 There was snow on the ground in NYC Jan 17 1978 then it went crazy so in pos enso back loaded winters happen . That year was a bit of an outlier for El Nino back-loadedness, so I would probably shoot for something more modest along the lines of the majority of other El Nino winters that didn't produce in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 El Nino Decembers since 1980 when there was no strong -AO December signal and the NYC seasonal snowfall. 82-83.........27.2 86-87.........23.1 87-88.........19.1 91-92.........12.6 94-95..........11.8 97-98..........5.5 04-05..........41.0 06-07..........12.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 It really should be no surprise this year with enso that we are going to see many above avg temp swings balanced with below avg temp swings. We normally dont see one prolonged temp swing one way or the other....the pattern just keeps fluctuating and not really locking in. Just the way im seeing it attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Pretty ugly list but not surprising. The optimism sure changed in a hurry but there are so many mixed signals going forward that it's difficult to lean one way or the other. At least we should still have a good period of chances post Xmas and I'm not even going to bother speculating what happens 2-3 weeks from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 PNA and EPO will be favorable after Christmas. NAO will not. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I think we are better off with mix of good and bad signals anyway. Too much good usually ends up bad i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Keep an eye out on the Dec 28-Jan 1st period. Last night's EURO & this AM's GFS show a somewhat favorable pattern for that time period. Both are showing a +PNA spike which correlates to a shot at a snowstorm around that time period. We also have some light ridging over Greenland. Albeit small, it helps a little. What I'm seeing this AM; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Same period ive been honing on for several days now tho I think u can extend it to the 5th of the New Year. Going to be about a week period where the stj is very active and we have some favorable teleconnections. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I'm a bit confused how does MJO play into all of this ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Any theory on why the Euro individual storm details have been so erratic after 120 recently? The 168 hr forecast verifying for today was just one example. There have been plenty of high profile misses going back to November with several day 7-10 fantasy snowstorms that never panned out. So even with the more -EPO coming up, I will be very skeptical of day 7-10 storms that look too good to be true. Let us not also forget some of those super deep solutions for the 12-24 storm that the model has been backing away from. But the ensembles still seem to be doing well on the 500 mb teleconnection patterns like the more -EPO that has been advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I'm a bit confused how does MJO play into all of this ?? 4 5 6 promote ridging off the east. However it's only 1 signal You have to see how the epo and AO evolve in addition the mjo amplitude will play a roll as to how much ridging there is Its 2 weeks away and would look at how this progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 NOTICE: i started a january discussion thread so if you want please use that for the Jan. 1st and forward threats, thanks fellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Da 7 euro Ahem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 It seems like the pattern is getting more favorable on the guidance and then it begins to back off. For example todays run of the ECM at day 10 shows a cutter again. To me it seems as if the core of the cold is going to be set up in the west and central part of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 It seems like the pattern is getting more favorable on the guidance and then it begins to back off. For example todays run of the ECM at day 10 shows a cutter again. To me it seems as if the core of the cold is going to be set up in the west and central part of the US. We don't need the core of the cold just for it to be cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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