IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Since when does the surface need to be at 32F to get flakes flying? Come on Yanks, you're not new to this so stop acting like its your first day. The city is almost 40F during that panel. It's drizzle at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The period right after Christmas is the one to watch. Assuming that the Christmas storm cuts and sets up the blocking over Canada, the cutter behind it should be a miller B. The 12z PGFS almost gets this done but the primary hangs on too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The latest gfs Op is starting to show the blocking become more of a factor. Once we transition the models should have a much better handle on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The city is almost 40F during that panel. It's drizzle at best. Im not buying it. A setup with a sub 980mb slp spinning over the GL wrapping cold air quickly around the backside of the low as it occludes should yield snow showers or a squall on the leeside across NY/PA and maybe into the big cities. Colder air will filter in quicker than depicted is what I'm getting at. It's ok to disagree, I just see the GooFuS model hinting at this scenario. Mood flakes would be nice, hopefully not the drizzle you speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Dm using the gfs for the long range????? Last night it was showing a huge storm. Almost like you cherry pick anything bad you can possibly find to post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Seriously? Using the long range? ANT Yes...And Yes for the ball drop guidance http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_f312_us.html give us your five star ***** poster list t/y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The latest gfs Op is starting to show the blocking become more of a factor. Once we transition the models should have a much better handle on things. We (PHL/NYC) will see our first significant snowstorm of the season sometime between 12/27-1/5 based on the pattern developing. As Iso said, the Christmas storm essentially kickstarts the pattern change. The storm around the 27th should aid in pumping heights South and West of Greenland. Block cuts off, Southern jet remains active, weak SE Ridge in place....somethings gotta give. Patience people....we have a few sacrificial lambs before the big show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Agree that a SE ridge isn't all bad and as long as it's not too overpowering then it could actually help us. If you have a nice blocking pattern in place then as stated a SE ridge is good especially around these parts and into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Im not buying it. A setup with a sub 980mb slp spinning over the GL wrapping cold air quickly around the backside of the low as it occludes should yield snow showers or a squall on the leeside across NY/PA and maybe into the big cities. Colder air will filter in quicker than depicted is what I'm getting at. It's ok to disagree, I just see the GooFuS model hinting at this scenario. Mood flakes would be nice, hopefully not the drizzle you speak of. If it was just the surface low over the lakes I would agree with you but the models want to develop a wave of low pressure near our area and that's going to probably take most of the moisture with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The Southeast ridge is not going to be much of anything with a west based -NAO like that....watch in the next 3 days or so that the SE ridge that forms behind the XMas low gets beaten down...I've seen this many times where the models try to pump SE ridges when a -NAO will be near the Davis Strait and it always gets pressed as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The Southeast ridge is not going to be much of anything with a west based -NAO like that....watch in the next 3 days or so that the SE ridge that forms behind the XMas low gets beaten down...I've seen this many times where the models try to pump SE ridges when a -NAO will be near the Davis Strait and it always gets pressed as we get closer. Eventually it WILL get beaten down but I think we score a snow event for the region as that happens. Hard to go against the Euro when it shows the SE Ridge rather firmly established thru the long range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 A Se ridge is not the worse...it will prevent suppression like many have stated already. I much rather have STJ and risk where storms go then the Pv sitting over my head. We will still have the confluence around the Pv that worked out so well for us last year. Remember we didn't have a neg nao either last year. Also the blocking I don't see breaking down that fast like the end of the ens showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 DM, you make interesting posts, but I've noticed that you exclusively use NECP guidance which can be very dangerous considering it's relatively poor scores compared to the CMC and especially ECMWF guidance. www.tropicaltidbits.com is a great free source for the GGEM/EURO guidance(Including EUROens) and that would allow you to have a more complete perspective I think. Just my 0.02, do with it what you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The Southeast ridge is not going to be much of anything with a west based -NAO like that....watch in the next 3 days or so that the SE ridge that forms behind the XMas low gets beaten down...I've seen this many times where the models try to pump SE ridges when a -NAO will be near the Davis Strait and it always gets pressed as we get closer. Its been mentioned before about how the euro has been showing the se ridge in the long term quite a bit over the last several months and it usually didn't come to pass... last several runs its been on and off with it while the gfs has been pretty consistant with just some weak ridging at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Gfs with a omega block west base neg nao and STJ..can't ask for much more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Its been mentioned before about how the euro has been showing the se ridge in the long term quite a bit over the last several months and it usually didn't come to pass... last several runs its been on and off with it while the gfs has been pretty consistant with just some weak ridging at times. To your point, looking at the GEFS 12Z there really isn't much SE ridging pressing up the heights. It has a really good look to it after 12/26. Will be interesting to see what the 12Z Euro/Ensembles do, and whether they hold firm on the SE Ridge idea during the 12/27-12/30 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Big rainstorm on the Euro for early next week. Surface low tracks to Ohio and with the big negative trough the flow is right in off the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Probably 1.50"-2.00" of rain for the area, and if this thing slows down a bit more it's going to be a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The Euro weeklies along with the JMA have the wrong type of -EPO pattern where the SE Ridge never fully goes away like we had in 2013. You would wan't to see a more 2014 -EPO instead. J13.png J14.png Bluewave - in Jan 2013, the NAO region looks neutral to positive though right? (correct me if I am wrong here...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Stop worrying about a SE ridge after the 28th . Once there is a neg EPO AO regime the pattern becomes favorable . We don't live at 5k feet your 2M will kick the sht out of any ridge . Go back and look and look at all the JMA weeklies from last yr. 1st look at 500 then look at the 2m temps. Low level cold air typically wins . Why ? Because low level dense air will push to the base of the trough. With a neg PNA if you dont have a slight SE ridge you have no mechanism to transfer the southern branch energy north. You saw that pattern in 93 94 and you saw it last Dec and Jan. My fear is not the SE ridge my fear is its not goin to show up on future ensemble runs and if a neg NAO shows up you guys are going to cry suppression . Douchember will be done in 10 days and with it the crud pattern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The Euro doesn't have a strong west based NAO so the SE Ridge is still there. The height rises on the Euro ensemble are skewed to the south and SE of Greenland instead of across the Davis Strait near day 10. The 12z Euro is building massive block over Davis strait/Quebec after the next two cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 12z euro has two cutters including the one on xmass then the cold comes…looks ruff for the ski areas for xmass break….hopefully that does not happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The 12z Euro is building massive block over Davis strait/Quebec after the next two cutters. Yes, just saw it myself. Very impressive western based block by day 10. Very good sign that the Euro and GFS op is showing this. If the southern jet remains active, we can very well be facing a MECS or HECS as we enter into the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 the Euro giveth and the euro taketh away the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 FWIW there is a pretty decent PNA popping towards the end of the Euro run. Might be a little too far west, but basically the trough calves out the whole of the continental US by day 10. Can't argue with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That storm after the bomb is liable to do just about anything...The euro's evolution of cutting it is strange...it basically just gets rid of a sub 960 bomb in central Canada and the -NAO and next thing you know the system cuts...the models volatility beyond day 6 has been ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That storm after the bomb is liable to do just about anything...The euro's evolution of cutting it is strange...it basically just gets rid of a sub 960 bomb in central Canada and the -NAO and next thing you know the system cuts...the models volatility beyond day 6 has been ridiculous.Goose that 27th system should cut . There's very little separation between the systems so as the 25th system cuts the ULL pulls the trough axis west. The 27th should cut . There's no way for it release underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The strongest part of the blocking is near Southern Greenland instead of the Davis Strait on the 12z. ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png Yes but look at the confluence cutting SE through the lakes as a result of a strong EPO AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That won't be until the second cutter passes and then we should be almost to Jan 1. Whether that retrogression occurs will be the key to the first half of January. Plenty of time to see how things shape up. OK misunderstood. Yes I agree both will cut. But then I really like where we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That won't be until the second cutter passes and then we should be almost to Jan 1. Whether that retrogression occurs will be the key to the first half of January. Plenty of time to see how things shape up. Correct me if im wrong, but are you saying that you think the cold will be transient the first week of January? Then we go back to at or above normal temp pattern? If so the pattern the rest of the board is excited about will not have much time to work.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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