PB GFI Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 You can buy the Euro ensemble LR at your own risk . We are running through phase 4 this week and we DO NOT TORCH . Next week we head into phase 5 and here`s a new trough coming through the lakes . This is the old 360 from last Monday valid 0Z Tues for the 9th . Check out the new trough that swings through during that time and 12 hours later . The model has serious problems in the LR on the EC . Do we warm sure , but how much and how long . This Torch is a mute period . As long as that PNA is positive you are goin to see the models miss these renegade troughs coming through the lakes . That trough will look deeper as we get closer . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 You can buy the Euro ensemble LR at your own risk . We are running through phase 4 this week and we DO NOT TORCH . Next week we head into phase 5 and here`s a new trough coming through the lakes . This is the old 360 from last Monday valid 0Z Tues for the 9th . Check out the new trough that swings through during that time and 12 hours later . The model has serious problems in the LR on the EC . Do we warm sure , but how much and how long . This Torch is a mute period . As long as that PNA is positive you are goin to see the models miss these renegade troughs coming through the lakes . That trough will look deeper as we get closer . thats all you need is perfect timing when one of those big old arctic highs are in the right position in southern Canada for a few days feeding just cold enough air down this way and a southern stream system gets close enough and attacks it to produce a snow event around here ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 thats all you need is perfect timing when one of those big old arctic highs are in the right position in southern Canada for a few days feeding just cold enough air down this way and a southern stream system gets close enough and attacks it to produce a snow event around here ......... Agreed. Beats cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Long range models converging on the classic +EPO/+PNA pattern for the 6-10 and 11-14 day forecasts. Notice how well the model forecasts agree with the composite. This is going to be a textbook December El Nino pattern through at least midmonth. So then how did things usually progress afterwards and are we along the same lines as say 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Agreed looks like post dec.15-20th may give us our hope for our first met winter widespread over the tristate area including the coast My first snowfall in the winter of 2010-2011 was the boxing day storm. Not every winter is going to arrive early. Patience is the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 My first snowfall in the winter of 2010-2011 was the boxing day storm. Not every winter is going to arrive early. Patience is the key. Not worried one bit. Actually couldnt ask for a better morning on december 1st, 50's and almost no wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Today I noticed the first crack (shades of blue---those reds wanted to burn a hole in my screen) in the Stormvista CFS weeklies. But so far we will have to wait till the last 10 days of the month/year to enjoy these benefits. Possibly this 'blue intrusion' can back up to mid-month since today may have been the start of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Not worried one bit. Actually couldnt ask for a better morning on december 1st, 50's and almost no wind. I will take it since I will be in the city all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 My first snowfall in the winter of 2010-2011 was the boxing day storm. Not every winter is going to arrive early. Patience is the key. I actually wonder if it ends up being a 06/07 late start in February. I know that year was one of the only ones where the above normal Eurasian October snow correlation to winter didn't really work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Most Winters in this area we don't even consider accumulating snowfall before Christmas. Think of December the same way you do of June. You wouldn't expect excessive heat in early June, but if it happened it wouldn't be a shock. We have a long way to go. The heart of the snow season doesn't really begin for another 3-4 weeks, just look at climo if you disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 The weather is pleasant though. Feels like November 1st. I honestly wouldn't mind an above normal month temperature wise as long as we squeeze a couple minor to moderate snow events. Either that or just give me 2-4 inches of snow all month on Xmas eve and the rest of the month can torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I actually wonder if it ends up being a 06/07 late start in February. I know that year was one of the only ones where the above normal Eurasian October snow correlation to winter didn't really work. 2 sleet storms that winter with only 10 inches of snow for the whole winter. No thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Most Winters in this area we don't even consider accumulating snowfall before Christmas. Think of December the same way you do of June. You wouldn't expect excessive heat in early June, but if it happened it wouldn't be a shock. We have a long way to go. The heart of the snow season doesn't really begin for another 3-4 weeks, just look at climo if you disagree. NYC averages around 5 inches for December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 NYC averages around 5 inches for December And how badly is that number skewed because of 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 NYC averages around 5 inches for December And for every 2000/2002/2003/2009/2010 we have many many Decembers that have between 0-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Since the Winter of 1950-1951 Central Park has only recorded December monthly totals of 5.0" or more 22 times or 22 times in 64 years. What the data indicates is that there is no correlation between a snowy December and seasonal snowfall totals. 77-78' only had 0.4" in December and the season total was 50.7". On the other hand 95-96' had 11.5" in December and 75.6" on the season (#1 all time) Very few seasons have had above average snowfall from bookend to bookend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 The 12Z GEFS ensembles are starting to show a better look towards the end of their range, but that is obviously way out there i.e. 300+hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 +PNA/+NAO/+AO to start off December, with a chance of a near neutral NAO and strongly positive PNA around mid-month. That should be our next window for something significant. Before then, split flow looks likey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I wonder how deep we will go into this month until NYC goes to 32 or below again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Since the Winter of 1950-1951 Central Park has only recorded December monthly totals of 5.0" or more 22 times or 22 times in 64 years. What the data indicates is that there is no correlation between a snowy December and seasonal snowfall totals. 77-78' only had 0.4" in December and the season total was 50.7". On the other hand 95-96' had 11.5" in December and 75.6" on the season (#1 all time) Very few seasons have had above average snowfall from bookend to bookend. A snowless December is a very bad sign, namely, totals of < 3.0" in Central Park. Most winters were sub normal snowfall wise if December was under 3", while > 3" Decembers tended to be near or above normal. Years like 1977 and 2004 are the exception rather than the rule. The last 10 days or so of December tend to be fairly decent during our good/snowy winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 A snowless December is a very bad sign, namely, totals of < 3.0" in Central Park. Most winters were sub normal snowfall wise if December was under 3", while > 3" Decembers tended to be near or above normal. Years like 1977 and 2004 are the exception rather than the rule. The last 10 days or so of December tend to be fairly decent during our good/snowy winters. IMO given the poor pattern for snow overall in the next 10-15 days it may actually reload in time for a possible rare white christmas then. December 20th period and on has given us some notable to occasional historic snowstorms in the NYC area. One thing to keep in mind and to aid in quelling the punters for winter in our area isotherm. By no means are we out snow chances in the next 10-15 days either, with frequent transient troughs all you need is a well timed one with a disturbance from the south and boom a storm on the EC like last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 A snowless December is a very bad sign, namely, totals of < 3.0" in Central Park. Most winters were sub normal snowfall wise if December was under 3", while > 3" Decembers tended to be near or above normal. Years like 1977 and 2004 are the exception rather than the rule. The last 10 days or so of December tend to be fairly decent during our good/snowy winters. I highly doubt it's going to be a snowless December. It only takes one event to put us near average, or even above average. We may have to wait until mid-month, and maybe even a bit later. Patience is the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 47.5F and dropping with northwesterly winds. That was a fun torch... back to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 47.5F and dropping with northwesterly winds. That was a fun torch... back to winter.Waiting for the cold front down this way...still 63 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I highly doubt it's going to be a snowless December. It only takes one event to put us near average, or even above average. We may have to wait until mid-month, and maybe even a bit later. Patience is the key. Agree, and I'd be shocked if NYC has less than 3" this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 65 and delightful...almost springlike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 65 and delightful...almost springlike Now it's officially a lukewarm day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 47.5F and dropping with northwesterly winds. That was a fun torch... back to winter. Yes indeed.. Temp dropping nicely. Down to 43.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 December snowfall for the 3 decades of 1970-2000 seems to be the aberration at KNYC. It is possible that there could be another stream of Decembers like that, but those who think it is the norm are missing the mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean keeps the Polar Vortex situated north of Hudson Bay through at least mid-month. That's a problem because it keeps lower heights over Greenland with the best ridging over the open Northern Atlantic. We need the Polar Vortex to retrograde further southwest which will allow higher heights to develop closer to Greenland. If that transpired, we would actually enter a rather favorable blocking episode. As is, most of the real cold air is going to be situated in northern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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