Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'll just leave this weather porn here... thank would make for a very interesting New Years eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 that is a thing of beauty 71 more runs to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 71 more runs to go! yup, fun to look at though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'll just leave this weather porn here... Real 300 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Real 300 Considering they are making the switch and getting rid of the old GFS, its not the real 300. And that still looks good for this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Considering they are making the switch and getting rid of the old GFS, its not the real 300. And that still looks good for this far out. Mind shooting me a direct link? And yeah it does, 336 looks like a BM track. FWIW lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Does anyone have the link to the EPS ensemble members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Will that change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The EPO ridge still being pretty far west and the NAO block not having truly established itself yet could definitely lead the Dec 26-27 wave to cut with a SE ridge. After that wave passes, though, the EPO ridge should move further east, helping to weaken the SE ridge (but it may still be there somewhat), but with the -EPO, -AO, and -NAO pattern, that's a pretty good look Dec 28th and onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Both SWs were always supposed to cut. There was never enough separation between the 2. The SE ridge bulges because the xmas ULL retrograded W and pulls the axis west and there is no resistance to the ridge. After the 27th it will lose the battle. It's over after the 27th. The next 3 are rain and that has been well opined. That SE will lose out after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Both SWs were always supposed to cut. There was never enough separation between the 2. The SE ridge bulges because the xmas ULL retrograded W and pulls the axis west and there is no resistance to the ridge. After the 27th it will lose the battle. It's over after the 27th. The next 3 are rain and that has been well opined. That SE will lose out after that. Yes, the 26-27th wave will cut, if the ULL retrogrades W as now shown. That wave enhances the -NAO further. Theb pulls the mean trough east and suppresses the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Yes, the 26-27th wave will cut, if the ULL retrogrades W as now shown. That wave enhances the -NAO further. Theb pulls the mean trough east and suppresses the SE ridge. Yea that's what I have always thought and said embrace the 27th storm. That's ur cold front and the one that allows the pattern change to come east. Once that's off the board I would look for the next one out of the southern branch to belly under all that confluence. With a neg PNA people are going to beg for a tiny SE ridge or you can't turn the energy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I think that the SE Ridge could even be a player for the start of the day 10-15 period since that MJO 4-5 would support it. ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif It got muted last yr with the neg EPO. Looks like we head to a 2 to 3 SD neg EPO and AO It might look ominous at 500 but the 2m temps will win . If the NAO does go NEG then you will have one hell of a baroclinic zone from Amarillo to DC with a neg PNA and the STJ. I like that look a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 More spread on the 00z EPS ensembles than 12z for the Christmas storm, and less with offshore tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I think that the SE Ridge could even be a player for the start of the day 10-15 period since that MJO 4-5 would support it. ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif It's odd how yesterday the 12z ens was frigid jan 04 style...now for 00z the hint of the se ridge throughout the run but also has the blocking/-nao. If that's the case we will deal with some messy storms, but would be active. By the end of the run it starts retrograding the hgts towards Alaska and the cold starts heading north. That I don't like, God the frustration that would cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 If that happens and it only aides in frustration then it wasn't meant to be. Winter gives us early signs every year how it might play out and we'll know exactly what this winter is going to really be by early January. Sometimes things just don't work out and if this winter fails it would be almost a payback for last winter which was supposed to fail but never did. Things still look good though and this year reminds me more of 04-05 than a 11/12. All signs point to a major pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It may get muted, but it could still be a player in the forecast when passing through phase 4 Dec 28-31. DecENMJOphase4all500mb.gif It will be muted with -EPO/-AO/-NAO the what guidance has been consistently showing. That MJO composite shows a +EPO and +NAO.as well. We might want somewhat of SE ridge, to keep us closer to gradient as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It will be muted with -EPO/-AO/-NAO the what guidance has been consistently showing. That MJO composite shows a +EPO and +NAO.as well. We might want somewhat of SE ridge, to keep us closer to gradient as well. Agree. If you don't have a small SE ridge you will watch all ur storms cut along the gulf Coast and head right out with a neg PNA. Neg epo ao nao will make the SE ridge ur friend. Although when push comes to shove it will be a very weak ridge at best with those Indices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 For the time being the GFSx shows the next 7 days will average out at (+5 to 7 degs) with 2" of rain. This is what we have to look forward to till that pattern change takes hold and scrubs Canada and US of the warm Pacific flow. Seems TimesSqaure will not be a pleasant place to be NYE. 25degs. and snow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 At this point models past 5 days I don't buy ..I think after christmas eve rain event. Will hopefully get more clarity about what will happen snow wise ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 For the time being the GFSx shows the next 7 days will average out at (+5 to 7 degs) with 2" of rain. This is what we have to look forward to till that pattern change takes hold and scrubs Canada and US of the warm Pacific flow. Seems TimesSqaure will not be a pleasant place to be NYE. 25degs. and snow?? Think people would enjoy that...as long as its not rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 GFS shows some flakes flying for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 New Years OTS cast GFS ENS style Flat and Fast Jet keep this in mind http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014121906/gfs-ens_uv250_us_56.png dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 GFS shows some flakes flying for Christmas No, the cold air lags behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 New Years OTS cast GFS ENS style Flat and Fast Jet keep this in mind http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014121906/gfs-ens_uv250_us_56.png eve.gif dm Seriously? Using the long range? No it doesn't, precip shuts off long before the cold air arrives and the BL never drops below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 It's not likely to be muted before December ends as the SE RIdge usually wins out in marginal situations. Strongly agree....the SE Ridge is coming and there is no escaping it. However this keeps systems from sliding off the coast usually and with a block building in Canada, I only see this as a plus. Not buying a GFS (lol) solution this far out....maybe under 84 hours. Euro seems to be handling things consistently for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 No it doesn't, precip shuts off long before the cold air arrives and the BL never drops below freezing. Look again....snow showers and a squall for Christmas Day. Granted its the crappy GFS but it's still there. Im not at all that impressed, but mood flakes anyway :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Look again....snow showers and a squall for Christmas Day. Granted its the crappy GFS but it's still there. Im not at all that impressed, but mood flakes anyway :-) The surface freezing line in that panel is 100 miles NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 We don't get below freezing for most of the area until hour 162 or so. 3 hours sooner for NW sections. And either way we're talking <0.10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The surface freezing line in that panel is 100 miles NW of the city. Since when does the surface need to be at 32F to get flakes flying? Come on Yanks, you're not new to this so stop acting like its your first day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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