PB GFI Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Say goodbye to Douchember . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 That week 3 Euro weekly was all over it and fits very well with the typical Nino DJ pattern progression. https://fox12weather.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/500za_week3_bg_na.png Wonder if we end up colder than Dec 02 CONUS wide . Your 02- 03 analog is looking good even get a northeast Christmas cut off . The European EPO/WPO/AO /NAO are probably lower than what u see but all of Maue`s indices slump to 2 SD below normal by day 10 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Fairly strong support today from the GGEM/ECMWF/GFS and now EPS mean for a strong wave of low pressure to develop either over the area or nearbye on Christmas Eve. If that were to occur it would definitly increase the local impacts of the possible event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Well this is interesting, roughly 25 of the 51 EPS ensemble members track a secondary low pressure system either overhead or offshore for the Christmas storm. This includes the control run which goes from 990mb over southern VA to 981mb over NNJ and 974mb over N VT. All of this in a 12 hour span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 If the Christmas Eve storm turns into a re-developer it will be forever known as the "TonyLovesSnow" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 If the Christmas Eve storm turns into a re-developer it will be forever known as the "TonyLovesSnow" storm. Was he banned? Was a great guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 If the Christmas Eve storm turns into a re-developer it will be forever known as the "TonyLovesSnow" storm. H20, it's not really a redeveloper where the primary runs into a block and the transfer occurs. It's more of a response to a potent shortwave rotating around the base of the negativley tilted trough that runs up through the Carolinas. In this case the primary stays separate from whatever develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The stronger the 23rd event ends up the more likely the Christmas Eve one may be further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 One EPS member has a 967mb low just inside the benchmark early on Christmas morning and several others are not far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 One EPS member has a 967mb low just inside the benchmark early on Christmas morning and several others are not far off. Wont it produce rain even with that LOW because of the main low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I know its early but as forcasted today How do the winds look with the Christmas storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I know its early but as forcasted today How do the winds look with the Christmas storm? Probably not as bad as once thought. Probably your typical 20 mph winds at this stage with maybe a gust to 25-30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Wont it produce rain even with that LOW because of the main low? It's a all rain even no matter what happens...we need this storm to Jump start the change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Probably not as bad as once thought. Probably your typical 20 mph winds at this stage with maybe a gust to 25-30. Really what happened I thought it was going to be really strong winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 It's a all rain even no matter what happens...we need this storm to Jump start the change.. No way is it rain if we go 970-980mb tracking to our east by 100-150 miles, even with a low over the Great Lakes it's not a classic primary low driving north drilling warmth in situation. You can see on the 12Z Euro most places in CNY AND CPA are snow west of the low center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The stronger the 23rd event ends up the more likely the Christmas Eve one may be further east. Reminds me of 12/25/02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Really what happened I thought it was going to be really strong winds? That's complete bs! Gusts 25-30 hahaha. More like sustained gusts 50 range. Solid advisory event on both front and back ends. Possible HWW for south facing coasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 That's complete bs! Gusts 25-30 hahaha. More like sustained gusts 50 range. Solid advisory event on both front and back ends. Possible HWW for south facing coasts. If we see a sub 980 just to our west then yea we're going to be seeing some good winds and we might rip through some of that inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Was he banned? Was a great guy. No, he got a 5-day suspension I believe. A total meltdown last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 No, he got a 5-day suspension I believe. A total meltdown last night. I always have wondered what prevents someone who was banned from just logging in with a new name under another device. Ironically we have had 2-3 notorious posters banned here the last few years and as far as I can tell none of them ever came back unless they disguise it well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I always have wondered what prevents someone who was banned from just logging in with a new name under another device. Ironically we have had 2-3 notorious posters banned here the last few years and as far as I can tell none of them ever came back unless they disguise it well. Some have come back but were discovered fairly quickly and banned again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 They use IP bans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Wow at the 0z GFS after Christmas. Active STJ along with a lot of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Wow at the 0z GFS after Christmas. Active STJ along with a lot of blocking.how is the air mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The pattern looks fantastic for sure after say 12/27 onward. Still a shot of a storm before the month ends because the STJ continues to fire off shortwaves and eject them. I think the chances of a true KU storm (12"+) are much greater than normal this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I can imagine thunderstorms being added for the forecast for Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I can imagine thunderstorms being added for the forecast for Christmas Eve. I see temps of 60 or higher, winds probably 20-30 with gusts up to 50mph+ and yes rumbles of thunder or even thunderstorms look like a possibility. The low really cranks just to our west and we are well in the warm sector which could override the inversion and any heavy rain/storms would be capable of bringing down stronger wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 how is the air masslooks fine to me. Plenty cold.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'll just leave this weather porn here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'll just leave this weather porn here... that is a thing of beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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